Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지

Frequency Analysis of Daily Rainfall in Han River Basin Based on Regional L-moments Algorithm

L-모멘트법을 이용한 한강유역 일강우량자료의 지역빈도해석

  • 이동진 (연세대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 허준행 (연세대학교 사회환경·건축공학부 토목전공)
  • Published : 2001.04.01
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

At-site and regional frequency analyses of annual maximum 1-, 2-, and 3-days rainfall in Han River basin was performed and compared based on the regional L-moments algorithm. To perform regional frequency analysis, Han River basin was subdivided into 3 sub-basins such as South Han River, North Han River, and downstream regions. For each sub-basin, the discordancy and homogeneity tests were performed. As the results of goodness of fit tests, lognormal model was selected as an appropriate probability distribution for both South Han River and downstream regions and gamma-3 model for North han River region. From Monte carlo simulation, RBIAS and RRMSE of the estimated quantiles from regional frequency analysis and at-site frequency analysis were calculated and compared each other. Regional frequency analysis shows less RRMSE of the estimated quantiles than at-sites frequency analysis in overall return periods. The differences of BRMSE between two approaches increase as the return period increases. As a result, it is shown that regional frequency analysis performs better than at-site analysis for annual maximum rainfall data in Han River basin.

본 연구에서는 한강유역의 1일, 2일, 3일 연최대강우자료를 대상으로 L-모멘트법을 이용한 지점 빈도해석과 지역 빈도해석을 실시하여 그 결과를 비교하였다. 지역빈도해석을 실시하기 위하여 한강유역을 남한강, 북한강, 한강하류부 유역의 3개 소유역으로 분할하고, 각 유역에 대한 자료의 이산도 및 동질성을 검토하였으며, 각 소유역에 대하여 여러 분포형을 적용한 결과, 남한강유역과 한강하류부 유역은 lognormal 분포형, 북한강 유역은 gamma-3 분포형이 적정분포형으로 선정되었다. 지역빈도해석과 지점빈도해석을 통하여 선정된 확률분포형을 이용, Monte Carlo 모의를 수행하였으며, 재현기간에 따른 상대편의와 상대제곱근 오차를 산정하였다. 지역빈도해석과 지점빈도해석을 비교한 결과 상대제곱근오차에 있어서 지역빈도해석을 수행한 경우가 지점빈도해석에 비해 그 결과가 우수하였으며, 재현기간이 커질수록 그 차이는 현저하게 나타났다. 따라서, 한강유역의 강우량에 대해서 지역빈도해석 수행함이 지점빈도해석에 비해 우수하다는 결론을 얻게 되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. 건교부 (1961). 한국수문조사서 우량편
  2. 건교부 (1962-1978). 한국수문조사서 우량.수위편
  3. 건교부 (1979-1996). 한국수문조사연보
  4. Benson, M. A. (1962). Evolution of methods for evaluating the occurrence of floods, U. S. Geol. Surv. Water Supply Paper, 1580A
  5. Cunnane, C. (1988). Methods and merits of regional flood frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 100, pp. 269-290 https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(88)90188-6
  6. Cunnane, C. (1989). Statistical distributions for flood frequency analysis, WMO Operational Hydrological Report, 33
  7. Darymple, T. (1960). Flood-frequency analyses, U.S. Geol. Surv. Water Supply Paper, 1543A
  8. Greenwood, J.A., Landwehr, J.M., Matalas, N.C., and Wallis, J.R. (1979). Probability Weighted Moments : Definition and Relation to Parameters of Several Distributions Expressible in Inverse Form. Water Resources Research, 15(5), pp. 1049-1054
  9. Heo, J.H., Boes, D.C., and Salas, J.D. (1990). Regional flood-frequency modeling and estimation, Water Resour. Paper, No. 101, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
  10. Hosking, J.R.M. (1986). The theory of probability weighted moments. Research Report RC12210, IBM Research Division, Yorktown Heights, N.Y.
  11. Hosking, J.R.M. (1990). L-moments: Analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B. 52, pp. 105-124
  12. Hosking, J.R.M. and Wallis, J.R. (1997). Regional frequency analysis : An approach based on L-moments, Cambridge University Press
  13. Hosking, J.R.M. and Wallis, J.R. (1993). Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research, 29, pp. 271-281 https://doi.org/10.1029/92WR01980
  14. Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R., and Wood, E.F. (1985). An appraisal of the regional flood frequency procedure in the UK Flood Studier Report, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 30, pp. 85-109
  15. Landwehr, J.M., Matalas, N.C., and Wallis, J.R. (1979). Probability Weighted Moments Compared with Same Traditional Techniques in Estimating Gumbel Parameters and Quantiles, Water Resources Research, 15(5), pp, 1055-1064
  16. Lettenmaier, D.P. and Potter, K.W., (1985). Testing Flood Frequency Estimation Methods Using a Regional Flood Generation Model, Water Resources Research, 21(12), pp. 1903-1914
  17. Lettenmaier, D.P., Wallis, J.R., and Wood, E.F. (1987). Effect of regional heterogeneity on flood frequency estimation. Water Resources Research, 23, pp. 313-323
  18. Potter, K.W. and Lettenmaier, D.P. (1990). A comparison of regional flood frequency estimation methods using a resampling method. Water Resources Research, 26, pp. 415-524
  19. Stedinger, J.R. and Tasker, G.D. (1985). Regional hydrological analysis 1. Ordinary, weighted and generalized least squares compared, Water Resources Reserch, 21(9), pp. 1421 -1432
  20. Wallis, J.R. (1981). Risk and uncertainties in the evaluation of flood events for the design of hydraulic structures. In Piece e Siccita, edited by E. Guggino, G. Rossi, and E. Todini, pp. 3-36. Fondazione Politecnica del Mediterraneo, Catania, Italy
  21. Wallis, J.R. and Wood, E.F. (1985). Relative accuracy of log Pearson III procedures. Journal of Hydraulic Engneering, 111, pp. 1043-1056