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An Analysis of the Reliability of Technology Forecasting Outcomes

This paper investigates the responding patterns between panelists of high and low expertise, overall consistency in responses and the reliability of a technology forecasting outcomes of the study $\ulcorner$The Industrial Technology Forecasting for 2010 and New Strategies$\lrcorner$. The conclusions, based on various tests, are as follows : panelists' responses are tested to be significantly consistent : the panelist group of high expertise are more confident on their responses than the one of low expertise and the convergence ratio is higher in the latter group than in the first.