대한교통학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Transportation)
- 제10권3호
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- Pages.103-122
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- 1992
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- 1229-1366(pISSN)
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- 2234-4217(eISSN)
부산시 교통사고예측모형의 개발
Development of Traffic Accident Forecasting Model in Pusan
초록
The objective of this research is to develop a traffic accident forecasting model using traffic accident data in pusan from 1963 to 1991 and then to make short-term forecasts('93~'94) of traffic accidents in pusan. In this research, several forecasting models are developed. They include a multiple regression model, a time-series ARIMA model, a Logistic curve model, and a Gompertz curve model. Among them, the model which shows the most significance in forecasting accuracy is selected as the traffic accident forecasting model. The results of this research are as followings. 1. The existing model such as Smeed model which was developed for foreign countries shows only 47.8% explanation for traffic accident deaths in Korea. 2. A nonliner regression model (
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