A Study of the Fluctuation factors and Model of Daily Visitors of National Park

국립공원의 이용자수 변동요인 및 추정모형에 관한 연구

The purpose of this study is to prove the factors affecting the fluctuation of daily visitors in five mountainous national park(Kayasan, kyeryongsan, Naejangsan, Soraksan, Songnisan), and to analyze the relationship between these factors and daily visitors in Korea. "Three Factors and Nine Categories"(Aoki, K. & Aoki, Y. : 1974, 1979) has been applied to this study, and statistical analysis method was carried out by computer program SAS and SPSS. The number of daily visitors is calculated based on the data of "Daily entrance ticket sale report" by administration office in each national park. The scope of time period is during the last 5years(1982∼1986: 1825days) and the results were as follows: 1) There were significant differences in the number of daily visitors of each national park among months, days of a week and weather-the same as the previous study of urban park case. But it wold be better for their category classification to be adjusted according to the fluctuation pattern of each national park. 2) The peak of monthly visitors comes in May(Kayasan, Soraksan, Songnisan) or October(Kyeryongsan, Naejangsan). These months are specified as group tour season. On the basis of monthly fluctuation pattern, Each national park were classified into seasonal type, that is, kayasan, Soraksan were proved to be three-season type(Spring, Summer, Autumn), Songnisan to be two-season type(Spring, Autumn), and Naejangsan to be one-season type(Autumn). 3) The weekly pattern differs from three category (weekday, weekend, holiday: Eom, Choi 1986) in the case of urban park study. And there is no significant difference in daily fluctuation pattern by weather (fine, cloudy and rainy day), but significant difference between snowy and the others. This result is due to the characteristics of visitors, which is, the major visits of national park are planned in a advance of the tour, therefore it is difficult to change the plan by the weather. 4) the result of correlation analysis showed that the most influential factor on national park use in Kayasan, Naejangsan, Soraksan and Songnisan is ′Monthly characters (M)′, on the contrary ′Day of week(D)′ in Kyeryongsan only. From the result, The more parks are resource-based, the more ′Monthly characters′-factor is supposed to affect the number of daily visitors rather than ′Day of the week′-factor. This means that kayasan, naejangsan, Sorakson and Songnisan are classified into resource-based type, but on the other hand Kyeryongsan should be classified into intermediate type.