Study on a Probabilistic Load Forecasting Formula and Its Algorithm

전력부하의 확률가정적 최적예상식의 유도 및 전산프로그래밍에 관한 연구

System modeling is applied in developing a probabilistic linear estimator for the load of an electric power system for the purpose of short term load forecasting. The model assumer that the load in given by the suns of a periodic discrete time serier with a period of 24 hour and a residual term such that the output of a discrete time dynamical linear system driven by a white random process and a deterministic input. And also we have established the main forecasting algorithms, which are essemtally the Kalman filter-predictor equations.