Estimations of modal shift from maritime and air transport to surface transport between China and South Korea : focusing on China's three northeast provinces.

한중간 해상에서 육상으로 화물운송전환수요의 추정 : 동북 3성 지역을 중심으로

This study is based on the assumption of surface transport linkages between Korea and China. Active economic cooperation between South Korea and North Korea are expected within the near future and Russia and China have interested in the land transport linkages in Korean peninsula. How much freight demands between the two countries that has been mainly dependent on air and sea transportation so far may convert the transport mode to surface transportation are estimated. Particularly, freight demands between South Korea and China's three northeast provinces are focused. The sensitivity analysis depends on transport time and transport cost changes is included. The modal shifts is estimated to be more sensitive to the changes in transport costs than those in transport time, suggesting the importance of transport costs of rail and road. Despite the dearth of data on the surface transport operation in North Korea, the attempts made in this study to estimate the demand conversion are hope to provide reference points for potential effects of the rail and road transport connections between China and the Korea peninsula before our discussions expand to the establishment of freight transport network of the northest Asia and, moreover, the Eurasian continent.