Estimation of Failure Probability Using Boundary Conditions of Failure Pressure Model for Buried Pipelines

파손압력모델의 경계조건을 이용한 매설배관의 파손확률 평가

This paper presents the effect of boundary condition of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with various corrosion defects for long exposure periods in years. A failure pressure model based on a failure function composed of failure pressure and operation pressure is adopted for the assessment of pipeline failure. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.