한국철도학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the KSR Conference)
- 한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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- Pages.44-51
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- 2001
위험도 분석을 이용한 철도투자사업 경제성평가 적용방안
Application of Risk Analysis for Economic Evaluation of Railroad Investments
초록
To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it larks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.
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