Tsunami Forecasting along the East Coast of Korea

한국 동해안의 지진해일(Tsunami) 예측

All of the Tsumami which affected severly the east coast of the Korean Peninsula in the years 1741-1993 are caused by earthquakes occurred along the boundary sea of Japan and norther Honshu. These earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7.0 are results of relative movement between the North American Plate and Urasian Plate. The active fault along the boundary of the two plates is attracted by many researchers since the 1983 May earthquake of magnitude 7.7. It is important to anticipate when the next large earthquake will occur and how much it affect the east coast of Korea. Among a few models of spatial seismic gap were proposed for earthquake occurrences accompanying Tsunami, Ishikawas' east-west seismic gap model is the most probable one. There is a tendency that the period between the activities of the active faults becomes shorter. It is expected that a large earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or above will occur along the eastern boundary of Japan Sea at the end of this century and produce Tsunami at the east coast of Korea.