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Limit Pricing by Noncooperative Oligopolists (과점산업(寡占産業)에서의 진입제한가격(進入制限價格))

  • Nam, Il-chong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 1990
  • A Milgrom-Roberts style signalling model of limit pricing is developed to analyze the possibility and the scope of limit pricing in general, noncooperative oligopolies. The model contains multiple incumbent firms facing a potential entrant and assumes an information asymmetry between incombents and the potential entrant about the market demand. There are two periods in the model. In period 1, n incumbent firms simultaneously and noncooperatively choose quantities. At the end of period 1, the potential entrant observes the market price and makes an entry decision. In period 2, depending on the entry decision of the entrant, n' or (n+1) firms choose quantities again before the game terminates. Since the choice of incumbent firms in period 1 depends on their information about demand, the market price in period 1 conveys information about the market demand. Thus, there is a systematic link between the market price and the profitability of entry. Using Bayes-Nash equilibrium as the solution concept, we find that there exist some demand conditions under which incumbent firms will limit price. In symmetric equilibria, incumbent firms each produce an output that is greater than the Cournot output and induce a price that is below the Cournot price. In doing so, each incumbent firm refrains from maximizing short-run profit and supplies a public good that is entry deterrence. The reason that entry is deterred by such a reduced price is that it conveys information about the demand of the industry that is unfavorable to the entrant. This establishes the possibility of limit pricing by noncooperative oligopolists in a setting that is fully rational, and also generalizes the result of Milgrom and Roberts to general oligopolies, confirming Bain's intuition. Limit pricing by incumbents explained above can be interpreted as a form of credible collusion in which each firm voluntarily deviates from myopic optimization in order to deter entry using their superior information. This type of implicit collusion differs from Folk-theorem type collusions in many ways and suggests that a collusion can be a credible one even in finite games as long as there is information asymmetry. Another important result is that as the number of incumbent firms approaches infinity, or as the industry approaches a competitive one, the probability that limit pricing occurs converges to zero and the probability of entry converges to that under complete information. This limit result confirms the intuition that as the number of agents sharing the same private information increases, the value of the private information decreases, and the probability that the information gets revealed increases. This limit result also supports the conventional belief that there is no entry problem in a competitive market. Considering the fact that limit pricing is generally believed to occur at an early stage of an industry and the fact that many industries in Korea are oligopolies in their infant stages, the theoretical results of this paper suggest that we should pay attention to the possibility of implicit collusion by incumbent firms aimed at deterring new entry using superior information. The long-term loss to the Korean economy from limit pricing can be very large if the industry in question is a part of the world market and the domestic potential entrant whose entry is deterred could .have developed into a competitor in the world market. In this case, the long-term loss to the Korean economy should include the lost opportunity in the world market in addition to the domestic long-run welfare loss.

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Studies on the Effect of Cation on the Activity at the 5th Instar Larvae of Bombyx mori (5령유충의 배맥관운동에 대한 양이온의 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 윤종관;사기언
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.89-93
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    • 1976
  • The physiological saline solution for animals is known as Ringer's solution which is used for keeping the function of cold blooded vertebrate animals. Primaily the saline solution is used for the purpose of perfusion experiment in frogs. Later the saline solution is applied in several kinds of animals including human being with satisfactory results. However, this saline solution was introduced to silkworm and it was found that the result was not as successful as in the case of other animals and human being. Normally, in the case of silkworm, the physiological saline solution is prepared in order to maintain the normal function of separated organs and tissues. To this end, the saline solution is adjusted to contain the certain amount and strength of ions, osmosis pressure and hydrogen concentration. The most of cases, the physiological saline solution should be prepared so that the constituent of the solution be the same with the blood selium and body fluid. The hydrogen concentration in the ion element of the saline solution is adjustable by adding Na$\^$+/, K$\^$+/, Ca$\^$++/, Mg$\^$++/ which are followed by adding of buffer solution such as NaHCO$_3$and NaH$_2$PO$_4$. Determination of optimum concentration of cation in the physiological saline solution, and the optimum mixing rate of more than two kinds of cations are based on the movement of dorsal vessel in the silkworm larvae. The optimum concentration of cations in the solution is prepared by adding NaCl solution which is under zero point. However, this solution was further added with the different concentration of KCl and CaCl$_2$. By dropping the prepared solution on the 5th larvae, the effects of solution was measured. The measurement was done by observation of movement' of dorsal vessel and its time length, and the number of pulses. According to the experiment, it was found that when only NaCl solution was applied, the number of pulses is increased for a moment, and the pulse stopped after one hour or so. When KCl solution was added the time of pulse was prolonged and in the contrast, the number of pulses was slow down. If KCl and CaCl$_2$solutions are added the time of pulse was further prolonged. Even though the adding of KCl and CaCl$_2$are found to be effectible, the correlation between the concentration of solution and the movement of dorsal vessel was not observed. However, it was same in the case of adding Ca$\^$++/ or K$\^$+/. It was found that when Mg$\^$++/ was added to dorsal vessel the number of the pulses was not decreased although the prolonged time pulse was observed.

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Characteristics and Correlation between Green Management Practices and Speed in Korean Golf Courses (한국의 골프 코스 그린의 관리 및 스피드 특성과 상관에 관한 연구)

  • 이상재;심경구;허근영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.29-43
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    • 2000
  • This study is carried out to investigate the cahracteristics of green management practices and green speed(i.e., ball-roll distance) on 129 Golf Courses in Korea, and to explain the effects of managemet practices that affect green speed. Data collected from green-keepers were subjected to frequency, correlation analysis, and multi-regression analysis using SPSSWIN(Statistical Package for the Social Science). The results are as follows. 1. In spring mowing height, 3.5-4 mm appeared the highest frequency(44.4%) and 4-4.5mm mowing height appeared the high frequency(41.0%). In summer mowing height, 4.5-5mm appeared the highest frequency(51.3%). In fall mowing height, 4-4.5mm appeared the highest frequency(41.0%). 2. In N-fertilizing amount of February and November, 0(zero) g/$m^2$ appeared the highest frequency. In N-fertilizing amount, of June and July 0-2 g/$m^2$ appeared the highest frequency. In N-fertilizing amount, of March, May, August, and September 2-4 g/$m^2$ appeared the highest frequency. In N-fertilizing amount, of October 2-4 or 6-8 g/$m^2$ appeared the highest frequency. 3. In spring topdressing times, 3-6 times appeared the highest frequency(52.6%). In spring topdressing amount, more than 2mm appeared the highest frequency(35.9%). In summer topdressing tierms, 0-3times appeared the highest frequency(71.8%). In summer topdressing amount, 0.5-1mm appeared the highest frequency(46.2%). In fall topdressing times, 0-3times appeared the highest frequency(47.4%). In fall topdressing amount, more than 2mm appeared the highest frequency(35.9%). 4. In spring irrigation tiems, 3-4times/a week appeared the highest frequency (30.6%). In spring irrigation amount, the irrigation below 5mm/day under appeared the highest frequency(38.7%). In summer irrigation times, 4-7times/ a week appeared the highest frequency(38.9%). In summer irrigation amount, 5-10mm/a day appeared the highest frequency(45.2%). In fall irrigation times, 2-3times/a week appeared the highest frequency(36.1%). In fall irrigation amount, the irrigation below 5mm/a day under appeared the highest frequency(45.2%). 5. In spring aeration times, 2 times appeared the highest frequency(55.2%). In spring aeration depth, 5-10mm appeared the highest frequency(81.6%). In fall aeration times, 1 time appeared the highest frequency(82.5%). In fall aeration depth, 5-10mm appeared the highest frequency(86.8%). 6. In spring green speed, 1.98-2.28 or 2.59-2.89mm appeared the highest frequency(32.7%). In summer green speed, 1.98-2.28mm appeared the highest frequency (46.9%). In fall green speed, 1.98-2.28mm appeared the highest frequency(38.8%). 7. The factors which affect green speed were mowing height, N-fertilizing, season, topdressing, irrigation, and aeration. Vertical mowing did not affect green speed. The order of the relevant important factors was mowing height >: N-fertilizing > season > topdressing > irrigation > aeration. Mowing height and N-fertilizing were the most important factors in green speed. As mowing height decreased, green sped always increased. As total N-fertilizing amount decreased, green speed increased. In summer, green sped decreased remarkably. As topdressing times increased and the topdressing amount decreased, green sped increased. As irrigation times increased and irrigation amount decreased, green speed increased.

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A Study of Reportable Range Setting through Concentrated Control Sample (약물검사에서 관리시료의 농축을 이용한 보고 가능 범위의 설정에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Sang Wu;Kim, Nam Yong;Choi, Ho Sung;Park, Yong Won;Yun, Keun Young
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2004
  • This study was designed to establish working range for reoportable range in own laboratory in order to cover the upper and lower limits of the range in test method. We experimented ten times during 10 days for setting of reportable range with between run for method evaluation. It is generally assumed that the analytical method produces a linear response and that the test results between those upper and lower limits are then reportable. CLIA recommends that laboratories verify the reportable range of all moderate and high complexity tests. The Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments(CLIA) and Laboratory Accreditation Program of the Korean Society for Laboratory Medicine states reportable range is only required for "modified" moderately complex tests. Linearity requirements have been eliminated from the CLIA regulations and from others accreditation agencies, many inspectors continue to feel that linearity studies are a part of good lab practice and should be encouraged. It is important to assess the useful reportable range of a laboratory method, i.e., the lowest and highest test results that are reliable and can be reported. Manufacturers make claims for the reportable range of their methods by stating the upper and lower limits of the range. Instrument manufacturers state an operating range and a reportable range. The commercial linearity material can be used to verify this range, if it adequately covers the stated linear interval. CLIA requirements for quality control, must demonstrate that, prior to reporting patient test results, it can obtain the performance specifications for accuracy, precision, and reportable range of patient test results, comparable to those established by the manufacturer. If applicable, the laboratory must also verify the reportable range of patient test results. The reportable range of patient test results is the range of test result values over which the laboratory can establish or verify the accuracy of the instrument, kit or test system measurement response. We need to define the usable reportable range of the method so that the experiments can be properly planned and valid data can be collected. The reportable range is usually defined as the range where the analytical response of the method is linear with respect to the concentration of the analyte being measured. In conclusion, experimental results on reportable range using concentrated control sample and zero calibrators covering from highest to lowest range were salicylate $8.8{\mu}g/dL$, phenytoin $0.67{\mu}g/dL$, phenobarbital $1.53{\mu}g/dL$, primidone $0.16{\mu}g/dL$, theophylline $0.2{\mu}g/dL$, vancomycine $1.3{\mu}g/dL$, valproic acid $3.2{\mu}g/dL$, digitoxin 0.17ng/dL, carbamazepine $0.36{\mu}g/dL$ and acetaminophen $0.7{\mu}g/dL$ at minimum level and salicylate $969.9{\mu}g/dL$, phenytoin $38.1{\mu}g/dL$, phenobarbital $60.4{\mu}g/dL$, primidone $24.57{\mu}g/dL$, theophylline $39.2{\mu}g/dL$, vancomycine $83.65{\mu}g/dL$, valproic acid $147.96{\mu}g/dL$, digitoxin 5.04ng/dL, carbamazepine $19.76{\mu}g/dL$, acetaminophen $300.92{\mu}g/dL$ at maximum level.

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Consistency in the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply and Social Costs (전력수급기본계획의 정합성과 사회적 비용)

  • LEE, Suil
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.55-93
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    • 2012
  • In Korea, energy policies are actualized through various energy-related plans. Recently, however, as high-ranking plans, which are very vision-oriented, continually set higher sector-by-sector goals, subordinate action plans, which require consistency, encounter distortions in their establishment process. Also, each subordinate action plan reveals limitations in terms of securing flexibility of the plan in responding to uncertainties of the future. These problems pose potential risks such as causing huge social costs. In this regard, with an aim to provide empirical evidence for discussions on improving the procedure for developing and executing Korea's energy plans, this study mainly analyzes the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply-one of the most important subordinate action plans-in order to explain the problems of the Basic Plan in a logical manner, and potential problems that could occur in the process of sustaining consistency between the Basic Plan and its higher-ranking plans. Further, this paper estimates the scale of social costs caused by those problems assuming realistic conditions. According to the result, in the case of where maximum electric power is estimated to be 7% (15%) less than the actual amount in the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply, the annual generation cost will rise by 286 billion won and (1.2 trillion won) in 2020. Such social costs are found to occur even when establishing and executing the Basic plan according to the target goal set by its higher-ranking plan, the National Energy Master Plan. In addition, when another higher-ranking GHG reduction master plan requires the electricity sector to reduce emissions by additional 5% in the GHG emissions from the right mix in electricity generation with 'zero' cost of carbon emission, the annual generation cost will rise by approximately 915 billion won in 2020. On the other hand, the analysis finds that since economic feasibility of electric powers in Korea varies significantly depending on their type, Korea is expected to face very small potential social costs caused by uncertainties over the future price of carbon dioxide in the process of establishing the Basic Plan.

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Fertilizer Recommendation Based on Soil Testing for Tomato in Plastic Film House (토양검정에 의한 시설재배 토마토의 적정 시비량 추천)

  • Hong, Soon-Dal
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.350-358
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    • 1998
  • To determine the optimum application of fertilizers for the cultivation of tomato in plastic film house, eighteen soils which contained different salt contents were taken from four different areas under plastic film house cultivation, Youngdong, Boeun, Cheongweon county, and Cheongju city. The dry weight and the amount of N, P, and K uptakes of tomato in the plot with no fertilization were considered as the factors representing the fertility of the soil. The differences in the dry weight and in the amounts of N, P, and K uptakes of plants between the plots with fertilization and with no fertilization were considered as the factors representing the total effect of fertilizer and the effects of fertilizer N, P, and K, respectively. These factors of soil fertility and fertilizer effects were estimated by correlation and regression with the chemical properties of the soil in order to find the critical levels and recommended method for optimum fertilization of tomato. The standardized partial regression coefficients of inorganic nitrogen ($NO_3-N+NH_4-N$) contents in soil for the factors of fertility ranged from 247 to 1,159, showing the best, while those of the others ranged from 0.02 to 4.02. Those of inorganic nitrogen ($NO_3-N+NH_4-N$) contents in soil for the electrical conductivity were also the best and were ranged from 35.2 to 36.0 compared with the values of less than 1.0 of the others. These results demonstrate that the content of inorganic nitrogen in the soil is the best index for both soil fertility and electrical conductivity of the soil. The critical level of inorganic nitrogen ($NO_3-N+NH_4-N$) in the soil for maximum productivity with zero value of fertilizer effects for tomato, estimated through Cate-Nelson split method was $220mg\;kg^{-1}$. This was the same value as evaluation for the cultivation of chinese cabbage. In conclusion, for optimal application of fertilizer in plastic film house, 1) no fertilization is recommended when the contents of inorganic nitrogen in the soil is more than $220mg\;kg^{-1}$; however, 2) in the case of less than $220mg\;kg^{-1}$ of inorganic nitrogen content in the soil, the optimal level of fertilization could be estimated through the regression equation between fertilizer effects and content of inorganic nitrogen in the soil.

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Variationsin Air and Ground Temperatures During a Frozen Season in the Subalpine Zone of Mt. Halla (한라산 아고산대의 동결기 기온 및 지온변화)

  • Kim, Taeho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2013
  • In order to examine the temperature regime responsible for periglacial processes, air and ground temperatures were monitored from October 2010 to May 2011 at a subalpine bare patch (1,710m asl) of Mt. Halla. Four thermistor sensor probes were installed at 55 cm above a ground surface and depths of 2 cm, 10 cm, and 20 cm, respectively. A mean air temperature is $-0.1^{\circ}C$, while mean ground temperatures are $1.8^{\circ}C$ at 2 cm, $2.6^{\circ}C$ at 10 cm and $3.2^{\circ}C$ at 20 cm deep. A mean monthly ground temperature at 2 cm deep demonstrates below $0^{\circ}C$ successively from January to March, while those at 10 cm and 20 cm deep show no sub-zero temperature. A total of 72 freeze-thaw cycle was observed in air temperature. However, the numbers in ground temperature reduced into 17 at 2 cm, 8 at 10 cm, and 3 at 20 cm deep. The cycles of air temperature and ground temperature at 2 cm deep mostly fluctuated diurnally, while those of ground temperature at 10 cm and 20 cm deep exhibited a several-daily oscillation. Snow cover over 55 cm high remained from January to early April, and it seemed to disappear completely on April 16. A seasonal frost of at least 2 cm thick was formed on late December and the isotherm of $0^{\circ}C$ descended slowly into 10 cm deep on late March to early April due to the insulating snow cover. It showed the maximum freezing depth of 20 cm on April 7 to 14 and then thawed rapidly so that the frozen ground did not longer after April 17. Periglacial processes are predominant during a freezing period than a thawing period when the ground surface is still covered with snow. The periglacial mass movement in the subalpine zone of Mt. Halla is mainly generated by frost creep in terms of the occurrence depth of diurnal freeze-thaw cycle and the maximum freezing depth of ground.

Grand Circulation Process of Beach Cusp and its Seasonal Variation at the Mang-Bang Beach from the Perspective of Trapped Mode Edge Waves as the Driving Mechanism of Beach Cusp Formation (맹방해안에서 관측되는 Beach Cusp의 일 년에 걸친 대순환 과정과 계절별 특성 - 여러 생성기작 중 포획모드 Edge Waves를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Yong Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.265-277
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    • 2019
  • Using the measured data of waves and shore-line, we reviewed the grand circulation process and seasonal variation of beach cusp at the Mang-Bang beach from the perspective of trapped mode Edge waves known as the driving mechanism of beach cusp. In order to track the temporal and spatial variation trends of beach cusp, we quantify the beach cusp in terms of its wave length and amplitude detected by threshold crossing method. In doing so, we also utilize the spectral analysis method and its associated spectral mean sand wave number. From repeated period of convergence and ensuing splitting of sand waves detected from the yearly time series of spectral mean sand wave number of beach cusp, it is shown that the grand circulation process of beach cusp at Mang-Bang beach are occurring twice from 2017. 4. 26 to 2018. 4. 20. For the case of beach area, it increased by $14,142m^2$ during this period, and the shore-line advanced by 18 m at the northen and southern parts of the Mang-Bang beach whereas the shore-line advanced by 2.4 m at the central parts of Mang-Bang beach. It is also worthy of note that the beach area rapidly increased by $30,345m^2$ from 2017.11.26. to 2017.12.22. which can be attributed to the nature of coming waves. During this period, mild swells of long period were prevailing, and their angle of attack were next to zero. These characteristics of waves imply that the main transport mode of sediment would be the cross-shore. Considering the facts that self-healing capacity of natural beaches is realized via the cross-shore sediment once temporarily eroded. it can be easily deduced that the sediment carried by the boundary layer streaming toward the shore under mild swells which normally incident toward the Mang-Bang beach makes the beach area rapidly increase from 2017.11.26. to 2017.12.22.

Optimum Fertilization Based on Soil Testing for Chinese Cabbage Cultivation in Plastic Film Houses (시설재배지 토양 검정에 의한 배추의 적정 시비량)

  • Hong, Soon Dal;Kang, Bo Goo;Kim, Jai Joung
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 1998
  • To determine the optimum application of fertilizers for the cultivation of Chinese cabbage in plastic film house, twenty soils which contain different salts contents were taken from 4 different area of plastic film house cultivation, Youngdong. Boeun county, Cheongweon county, and Cheongju city. The dry weight and the amount of N. P, and K uptakes of Chinese cabbage in the plot of no fertilization were considered as the factors representing the fertility of the soil. And a difference of dry weight and the amounts of N, P, and K uptakes of plants between the plot of fertilization and no fertilization were considered as the factors representing the total effect of fertilizer and fertilizer N, P, and K effects. respectively. These factors of soil fertility and fertilizer effects were estimated by correlation and regression with soil tests in order to find the critical levels and recommended method for optimum fertilization of Chinese cabbage. Chinese cabbage transplanted in two soils, having the electrical conductivity of 9.3 and 15.2 dS/m, were not able to root due to the salts toxicity. The content of inorganic N, the electrical conductivity, and CEC were founded to have significant correlation with the factors of both the soil fertility and fertilizer effects for the cultivation of Chinese cabbage. To determine the weighting degree for the productivity and the fertilizer effects, the standardized partial regression coefficient was analyzed by regression among the factors of fertility, the fertilizer effects, and the soil tests. The coefficient for inorganic N($NH_4-N$ and $NO_3-N$) was obtained as the absolute value of 756-1871 and this value was extremely higher than those of other soil tests which was 0.07-4.11. These results suggested that the content of inorganic N is the best tests for the estimation of the productivity and the fertilizer effects for the cultivation of Chinese cabbage in plastic film house. The critical level of inorganic N($NH_4-N+NO_3-N$) estimated by Cate-Nelson split method for maximum productivity and zero point of fertilizer effect was 220 mg/kg for all the factors of estimation. These results suggested that no application of fertilizer N. P, and K is required at the critical level of inorganic N of soil. Consequently the optimum application of fertilizer N, P, and K for the cultivation of Chinese cabbage in plastic film house was possible to determine by the critical level of inorganic N of soil. The critical level of electrical conductivity was estimated as 2.8 dS/m by the same method.

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Development and Testing of the Model of Health Promotion Behavior in Predicting Exercise Behavior

  • O'Donnell, Michael P.
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.31-61
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    • 2000
  • Introduction. Despite the fact that half of premature deaths are caused by unhealthy lifestyles such as smoking tobacco, sedentary lifestyle, alcohol and drug abuse and poor nutrition, there are no theoretical models which accurately explain these health promotion related behaviors. This study tests a new model of health behavior called the Model of Health Promotion Behavior. This model draws on elements and frameworks suggested by the Health Belief Model, Social Cognitive Theory, the Theory of Planned Action and the Health Promotion Model. This model is intended as a general model of behavior but this first test of the model uses amount of exercise as the outcome behavior. Design. This study utilized a cross sectional mail-out, mail-back survey design to determine the elements within the model that best explained intentions to exercise and those that best explained amount of exercise. A follow-up questionnaire was mailed to all respondents to the first questionnaire about 10 months after the initial survey. A pretest was conducted to refine the questionnaire and a pilot study to test the protocols and assumptions used to calculate the required sample size. Sample. The sample was drawn from 2000 eligible participants at two blue collar (utility company and part of a hospital) and two white collar (bank and pharmaceutical) companies located in Southeastern Michigan. Both white collar site had employee fitness centers and all four sites offered health promotion programs. In the first survey, 982 responses were received (49.1%) after two mailings to non-respondents and one additional mailing to secure answers to missing data, with 845 usable cases for the analyzing current intentions and 918 usable cases for the explaining of amount of current exercise analysis. In the follow-up survey, questionnaires were mailed to the 982 employees who responded to the initial survey. After one follow-up mailing to non-respondents, and one mailing to secure answers to missing data, 697 (71.0%) responses were received, with 627 (63.8%) usable cases to predict intentions and 673 (68.5%) usable cases to predict amount of exercise. Measures. The questionnaire in the initial survey had 15 scales and 134 items; these scales measured each of the variables in the model. Thirteen of the scales were drawn from the literature, all had Cronbach's alpha scores above .74 and all but three had scores above .80. The questionnaire in the second mailing had only 10 items, and measured only outcome variables. Analysis. The analysis included calculation of scale scores, Cronbach's alpha, zero order correlations, and factor analysis, ordinary least square analysis, hierarchical tests of interaction terms and path analysis, and comparisons of results based on a random split of the data and splits based on gender and employer site. The power of the regression analysis was .99 at the .01 significance level for the model as a whole. Results. Self efficacy and Non-Health Benefits emerged as the most powerful predictors of Intentions to exercise, together explaining approximately 19% of the variance in future Intentions. Intentions, and the interaction of Intentions with Barriers, with Support of Friends, and with Self Efficacy were the most consistent predictors of amount of future exercise, together explaining 38% of the variance. With the inclusion of Prior Exercise History the model explained 52% of the variance in amount of exercise 10 months later. There were very few differences in the variables that emerged as important predictors of intentions or exercise in the different employer sites or between males and females. Discussion. This new model is viable in predicting intentions to exercise and amount of exercise, both in absolute terms and when compared to existing models.

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