• Wind and Structures
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.75-90
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• 2016

A probabilistic approach that combines structural demand hazard analysis with cumulative damage assessment is presented and applied to a steel tower of a wind turbine. The study presents the step by step procedure to compare the reliability over time of the structure subjected to fatigue, assuming: a) a binomial Weibull annual wind speed, and b) a traditional Weibull probability distribution function (PDF). The probabilistic analysis involves the calculation of force time simulated histories, fatigue analysis at the steel tower base, wind hazard curves and structural fragility curves. Differences in the structural reliability over time depending on the wind speed PDF assumed are found, and recommendations about selecting a real PDF are given.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.295-303
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• 2012

Clarify wind energy productivity depends on three factors: the wind probability density function(PDF), the turbine's power curve, and the air density. The wind PDF gives the probability that a variable will take on the wind speed value. Wind shear refers to the change in wind speed with height above ground. The wind speed tends to increase with the height above ground. also, Wind PDF refers to the change with height above ground. Wind analysts typically use the Weibull distribution to characterize the breadth of the distribution of wind speeds. The Weibull distribution has the two-parameter: the scale factor c and the shape factor k. We can use a linear least squares algorithm(or Ln-least method) and moment method to fit a Weibull distribution to measured wind speed data which data was located same site and different height. In this study, find that the scale factor is related to the average wind speed than the shape factor. and also different types of terrain are characterized by different the scale factor slop with height above ground. The gross turbine power output (before accounting for losses) was caculated the power curve whose corresponding air density is closest to the air density. and air desity was choose two way. one is the pressure of the International Standard Atmosphere up to an elevation, the other is the measured air pressure and temperature to calculate the air density. and then each power output was compared.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.591-600
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• 2018

The probabilistic characterization of wind field characteristics is a significant task for fatigue reliability assessment of long-span railway bridges in wind-prone regions. In consideration of the effect of wind direction, the stochastic properties of wind field should be represented by a bivariate statistical model of wind speed and direction. This paper presents the construction of the bivariate model of wind speed and direction at the site of a railway arch bridge by use of the long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) data. The wind characteristics are derived by analyzing the real-time wind monitoring data, such as the mean wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method is proposed to formulate the joint distribution model of wind speed and direction. For the probability density function (PDF) of wind speed, a double-parameter Weibull distribution function is utilized, and a von Mises distribution function is applied to represent the PDF of wind direction. The SQP algorithm with multi-start points is used to estimate the parameters in the bivariate model, namely Weibull-von Mises mixture model. One-year wind monitoring data are selected to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method. The optimal model is jointly evaluated by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and coefficient of determination, $R^2$. The obtained results indicate that the proposed SQP algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method can effectively establish the bivariate model of wind speed and direction. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction will facilitate the wind-induced fatigue reliability assessment of long-span bridges.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.351-366
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• 2016

Nowadays, wind energy is the most rapidly developing technology and energy source and it is reusable. Due to its cleanliness and reusability, there have been rapid developments made on transferring the wind energy systems to electric energy systems. Converting the wind energy to electrical energy can be done only with the wind turbines. So installing a wind turbine depends on the wind speed at that location. The expected wind power can be estimated using a perfect probability distribution. In this paper Weibull and Weibull distribution with multiple parameters has been used in deriving the mathematical expression for estimating the wind power. Statistically the parameters of Weibull and Weibull distribution are estimated using the maximum likelihood techniques. We derive a probability distribution for the power output of a wind turbine with given rated wind speeds for the regions where the wind speed histograms present a bimodal pdf and compute the first order moment of this distribution.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.601-609
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• 2018

The estimated probabilistic model of wind data based on the conventional approach may have high discrepancy compared with the true distribution because of the uncertainty caused by the instrument error and limited monitoring data. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method has been developed in the companion paper and is conducted to formulate the joint probability density function (PDF) of wind speed and direction using the wind monitoring data of the investigated bridge. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction only represents the features of available wind monitoring data. To characterize the stochastic properties of the wind parameters with the subsequent wind monitoring data, in this study, Bayesian inference approach considering the uncertainty is proposed to update the wind parameters in the bivariate probabilistic model. The slice sampling algorithm of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to establish the multi-dimensional and complex posterior distribution which is analytically intractable. The numerical simulation examples for univariate and bivariate models are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, the proposed Bayesian inference approach is used to update and optimize the parameters in the bivariate model using the wind monitoring data from the investigated bridge. The results indicate that the proposed Bayesian inference approach is feasible and can be employed to predict the bivariate distribution of wind speed and direction with limited monitoring data.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.77 no.3
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• pp.355-368
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• 2021

The time-varying mean (TVM) component of non-stationary wind speeds is commonly extracted utilizing empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in practice, whereas the accuracy of the extracted TVM is difficult to be quantified. To deal with this problem, this paper proposes an approach to identify and extract the optimal TVM from several TVM results obtained by the EMD. It is suggested that the optimal TVM of a 10-min time history of wind speeds should meet both the following conditions: (1) the probability density function (PDF) of fluctuating wind component agrees well with the modified Gaussian function (MGF). At this stage, a coefficient p is newly defined as an evaluation index to quantify the correlation between PDF and MGF. The smaller the p is, the better the derived TVM is; (2) the number of local maxima of obtained optimal TVM within a 10-min time interval is less than 6. The proposed approach is validated by a numerical example, and it is also adopted to extract the optimal TVM from the field measurement records of wind speeds collected during a sandstorm event.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.136-140
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• 1984

A new medal is presented in order to evaluate the risk from a nuclear facility following accidents directly combining the on-site meteorological data using the Monte Carlo Method. To estimate the radiological detriment to the surrounding population-at-large (collective dose equivalent), in this study the probability distribution of each meteorological element based upon on-site data is analyzed to generate atmospheric dispersion conditions. The random sampling is used to select the dispersion conditions at any given time of effluent releases. In this study it is considered that the meteorological conditions such as wind direction, speed and stability are mutually independent and each condition satisfies the Markov condition. As a sample study, the risk of KNU-1 following the large LOCA was calculated, The calculated collective dose equivalent in the 50 mile region population from the large LOCA with 50 percent confidence level is 2.0$\times$10$^2$ man-sievert.