• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.257-267
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• 2019

This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.409-419
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• 2011

Semi-diurnal internal tides and near-inertial waves are investigated using moored current meter measurements at four sites along the shelf break of the East China Sea during August 1987 and May-June 1988. Each mooring is equipped with four current meters spanning from near surface to near bottom. Spectral analyses of all current data reveal dominant spectra at the semi-diurnal frequency band, where the upper and lower current measurements show out-of-phase relationship between them with significant coherences. These are consistent with typical characteristics of the first-mode semi-diurnal internal tide. Strong intensification of the near-bottom baroclinic currents is observed only at one site, where the ratio of the bottom slope to the slope of the internal-wave characteristics at the semi-diurnal frequency is close to unity. An energetic near-inertial wave event is observed during the first half of May-June 1988 observation at two mooring sites. Rotary spectra reveal that the most dominant signal is clockwise rotating motion at the near-inertial frequency band. Upward phase and downward energy propagations, shown in time-depth contour plots of near-inertial bandpass filtered currents, are confirmed by cross correlations between the upper- and lower-layer current measurements. The upward-propagating phase speed is estimated to be about 0.13 cm $s^{-1}$ at both sites. Significant coherences and in-phase relationships of near-inertial currents at the same or similar depths between the two sites are observed in spite of their long distance of about 110 km.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.511-519
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• 2022

Given the significant social and economic impact caused by heat waves, there is a pressing need to predict them with high accuracy and reliability. In this study, we analyzed the real-time forecast data from six models constituting the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction project, to elucidate the key mechanisms contributing to the prediction of the recent record-breaking Korean heat wave event in 2018. Weekly anomalies were first obtained by subtracting the 2017-2020 mean values for both S2S model simulations and observations. By comparing four Korean heat-wave-related indices from S2S models to the observed data, we aimed to identify key climate processes affecting prediction accuracy. The results showed that superior performance at predicting the 2018 Korean heat wave was achieved when the model showed better prediction performance for the anomalous anticyclonic activity in the upper troposphere of Eastern Europe and the cyclonic circulation over the Western North Pacific (WNP) region compared to the observed data. Furthermore, the development of upper-tropospheric anticyclones in Eastern Europe was closely related to global warming and the occurrence of La Niña events. The anomalous cyclonic flow in the WNP region coincided with enhancements in Madden-Julian oscillation phases 4-6. Our results indicate that, for the accurate prediction of heat waves, such as the 2018 Korean heat wave, it is imperative for the S2S models to realistically reproduce the variabilities over the Eastern Europe and WNP regions.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.14-22
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• 2017

The frequency and scale of natural disasters due to the abnormal climate phenomena caused by global warming have being increasing all over the world. Various natural disasters, such as typhoons, earthquakes, floods, heavy rain, drought, sweltering heat, wind waves, tsunamis and so on, can cause damage to human life. Especially, the damage caused by natural disasters such as the Earthquake of Japan, hurricane Katrina in the United States, typhoon Maemi and so on, have been enormous. At this stage, it is difficult to estimate the scale of damage due to (future) natural disasters and cope with them. However, if we could predict the scale of damage at the disaster response level, the damage could be reduced by responding to them promptly. In the present study, therefore, among the many types of natural disaster, we developed a function to estimate the damage due to wind waves caused by sea winds and waves. We collected the damage records from the Disaster Report ('91~'14) published by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security about wind waves and typhoons in the western coastal zone and, in order to reflect the inflation rate, we converted the amount of damage each year into the equivalent amount in 2014. Finally, the meteorological data, such as the wave height, wind speed, tide level, wave direction, wave period and so on, were collected from the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency)'s web sites, for the periods when wind wave and typhoon damage occurred. After that, the function used to estimate the wind wave damage was developed by reflecting the regional characteristics for the 9 areas of the western coastal zone.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2013

This study has purpose to minimize the impact of climate change of Siheung. Vulnerability assessment was carried out for establishing the Siheung Climate Change Master Plan. Climate change vulnerability assessment analyzed using climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators. A proxy variable is selected from each indicator. Meteorological data uses the RCP scenarios provided by the Meteorological Administration, and this study assumes that the same trend will continues in the future. Siheung are vulnerable to heavy rains in the flooded roads and farmland. Also, it is necessary to be careful heat wave in summer. The size and scale of the damage depends on the city's ability to respond to the impacts of climate change. It is necessary to make a adaptation plan for climate change impact assessment and vulnerability analysis. This study will be used to make Siheung Climate Change Master Plan and to determine the priority of the policy as guideline. It is expected that this study is helpful to pursue climate change vulnerability assessment of other local governments.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.25 no.7
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• pp.951-961
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• 2016

To prevent increasing instances of heat-related illnesses due to heat waves generated by climate change, a customized thermal environment index should be developed for outdoor workers. In this study, we conducted sensitivity analysis of the Masan harbor during a heat wave period (August 9th to 15th, 2013) using the MENEX model with metabolic rate and clothing-insulation data, in order to obtain realistic information about the thermal environment. This study shows that accurate input data are essential to gather information for thermophysiological indices (PST, DhR, and OhR). PST is sensitive to clothing insulation as a function of clothing. OhR is more sensitive to clothing insulation during the day and to the metabolic rate at night. From these results, it appears that when exposed to high-temperature thermal environments in summer, wearing highly insulated clothing and getting enough rest (to lower the metabolic rate) can aid in preventing heat-related illnesses. Moreover, in the case of high-intensity harbor work, quantification of allowed working time (OhR) during heat waves is significant for human health sciences.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.39 no.6_1
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• pp.1477-1482
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• 2023

This study examines marine heat wave (MHW) in the Northeast Asia region from 2012 to 2021, utilizing geostationary satellite Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS)/Meteorological Imager sensor (MI) and GEO-KOMPSAT-2A (GK-2A)/Advanced Meteorological Imager sensor (AMI) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data. Our analysis has identified an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of MHW events, especially post-2018, with the year 2020 marked by significantly prolonged and intense events. The statistical validation using Optimal Interpolation (OI) SST data and satellite SST data through T-test assessment confirmed a significant rise in sea surface temperatures, suggesting that these changes are a direct consequence of climate change, rather than random variations. The findings revealed in this study serve the necessity for ongoing monitoring and more granular analysis to inform long-term responses to climate change. As the region is characterized by complex topography and diverse climatic conditions, the insights provided by this research are critical for understanding the localized impacts of global climate dynamics.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.23 no.11
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• pp.1929-1941
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• 2014

Now a days, frequency of abnormally high temperatures like heat wave by global warming and climate change is increasing constantly and the number of patient with heat related illness are jumping rapidly. In this study, we chose the case day for the heat wave in Busan area(Busan and Yangsan), 2013 which it was the most hottest year during 21th century. And then, we analysed the weather condition using automatic synoptic observing system(ASOS) data. Also, four indices, heat index(HI), wet bulb globe temperature(WBGT), Man-ENvironment heat EXchange model(MENEX)'s results like Physiological subjective temperature(PST), Physiological strain(PhS), were calculated to evaluate the thermal comfort and stress quantitatively. However, thermal comfort was different as the each station and thermal comfort index during same time. Busan's thermal indices (HI: hot, WBGT: sweltering, PST: very hot, PhS: very hot) indicated relatively higher than Yansan's (HI: very hot, WBGT: sweltering, PST: very hot, PhS: sweltering). It shows that Busan near coast is relatively more comfortable than Yangsan located in inland.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.1439-1444
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• 2005

AIS needs hish efficiency and safety in terms of operational management and, in the aspect of service range, it is time to minimize shadow regions through propagation evaluation of AIS transmitter. Thus this study analyzes shadow regions and the scope of propagation of waves from stations through the electric wave environment of AIS. First, this study examines the characteristics of AIS wave and draws up methods to analyze the scope of propagation of waves according to the characteristics. Second, this study finds out service regions and shadow regions of the 22 stations across the nation by analyzing the actual data based on climate and topography. Lastly, this study summarizes the results of wave conductivity evaluation and conductivity problems and proposes improvement measures.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.42-50
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to set the direction to manage national parks to cope with climate change, and offer basic data to establish the relevant policies. Towards this end, this study analyzed the current and future climate change vulnerability of national parks using the 24 proxy variables of vulnerability in the LCCGIS program, a tool to evaluate climate change vulnerability developed by the National Institute of Environmental Research. To analyze and evaluate the current status of and future prospect on climate change vulnerability of national parks, the proxy variable value of climate exposure was calculated by making a GIS spatial thematic map with $1km{\times}1km$ grid unit through the application of climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The values of proxy variables of sensitivity and adaptation capability were calculated using the basic statistics of national parks. The values of three vulnerability evaluation items were calculated regarding the present (2010s) and future (2050s). The current values were applied to the future equally under the assumption that the current state of the proxy variables related to sensitivity and adaptation capability without a future prediction scenario continues. Seoraksan, Odaesan, Jirisan and Chiaksan National Parks are relatively bigger in terms of the current (2010s) climate exposure. The national park, where the variation of heat wave is the biggest is Wolchulsan National Park. The biggest variation of drought occurs to Gyeryongsan National Park, and Woraksan National Park has the biggest variation of heavy rain. Concerning the climate change sensitivity of national parks, Jirisan National Park is the most sensitive, and adaptation capability is evaluated to be the highest. Gayasan National Park's sensitivity is the lowest, and Chiaksan National Park is the lowest in adaptation capability. As for climate change vulnerability, Seoraksan, Odaesan, Chiaksan and Deogyusan National Parks and Hallyeohaesang National Park are evaluated as high at the current period. The national parks, where future vulnerability change is projected to be the biggest, are Jirisan, Woraksan, Chiaksan and Sobaeksan National Parks in the order. Because such items evaluating the climate change vulnerability of national parks as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability show relative differences according to national parks' local climate environment, it will be necessary to devise the adaptation measures reflecting the local climate environmental characteristics of national parks, rather than establishing uniform adaptation measures targeting all national parks. The results of this study that evaluated climate change vulnerability using climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability targeting Korea's national parks are expected to be used as basic data for the establishment of measures to adapt to climate change in consideration of national parks' local climate environmental characteristics. However, this study analyzed using only the proxy variables presented by LCCGIS program under the situation that few studies on the evaluation of climate change vulnerability of national parks are found, and therefore this study may not reflect overall national parks' environment properly. A further study on setting weights together with an objective review on more proper proxy variables needs to be carried out in order to evaluate the climate change vulnerability of national parks.