• 제목/요약/키워드: water supply and demand

검색결과 402건 처리시간 0.033초

농업용수의 잔여 공급계획량 및 수요예측량에 의한 관개 취약시기 산정 (Estimating Vulnerable Duration for Irrigation with Agricultural Water Supply and Demand during Residual Periods)

  • 남원호;김태곤;최진용;이정재
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제54권5호
    • /
    • pp.123-128
    • /
    • 2012
  • For optimal reservoir operation and management, there are essential elements including water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. To estimate agricultural water demand and supply, many factors such as weather, crops, soil, growing conditions cultivation method and the watershed/irrigation area should be considered, however, there are occurred water supply impossible duration under the influence of the variability and uncertainty of meteorological and hydrological phenomenon. Focusing on agricultural reservoir, amount and tendency of agricultural water supply and demand shows seasonally/regionally different patterns. Through the analysis of deviation and changes in the timing of the two elements, duration in excess of water supply can be identified quantitatively. Here, we introduce an approach to assessment of irrigation vulnerable duration for effective management of agricultural reservoir using time dependent change analysis of residual water supply and irrigation water requirements. Irrigation vulnerable duration has been determined through the comparison of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district based on the water budget analysis, therefore can be used as an improved and basis data for the effective and intensive water management.

농업용 저수지 관개 취약성 특성 곡선 산정 (Evaluation of Irrigation Vulnerability Characteristic Curves in Agricultural Reservoir)

  • 남원호;김태곤;최진용;김한중
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제54권6호
    • /
    • pp.39-44
    • /
    • 2012
  • Water supply capacity and operational capability in agricultural reservoirs are expressed differently in the limited storage due to seasonal and local variation of precipitation. Since agricultural water supply and demand basically assumes the uncertainty of hydrological phenomena, it is necessary to improve probabilistic approach for potential risk assessment of water supply capacity in reservoir for enhanced operational storage management. Here, it was introduced the irrigation vulnerability characteristic curves to represent the water supply capacity corresponding to probability distribution of the water demand from the paddy field and water supply in agricultural reservoir. Irrigation vulnerability probability was formulated using reliability analysis method based on water supply and demand probability distribution. The lower duration of irrigation vulnerability probability defined as the time period requiring intensive water management, and it will be considered to assessment tools as a risk mitigated water supply planning in decision making with a limited reservoir storage.

물수요의 추세 변화의 적응을 위한 모델링 절차 제시:베이지안 매개변수 산정법 적용 (Modeling Procedure to Adapt to Change of Trend of Water Demand: Application of Bayesian Parameter Estimation)

  • 이상은;박희경
    • 상하수도학회지
    • /
    • 제23권2호
    • /
    • pp.241-249
    • /
    • 2009
  • It is well known that the trend of water demand in large-size water supply systems has been suddenly changed, and many expansions of water supply facilities become unnecessary. To be cost-effective, thus, politicians as well as many professionals lay stress on the adaptive management of water supply facilities. Failure in adapting to the new trend of demand is sure to be the most critical reason of unnecessary expansions. Hence, we try to develop the model and modeling procedure that do not depend on the old data of demand, and provide engineers with the fast learning process. To forecast water demand of Seoul, the Bayesian parameter estimation was applied, which is a representative method for statistical pattern recognition. It results that we can get a useful time-series model after observing water demand during 6 years, although trend of water demand were suddenly changed.

물수요 중심 용수공급시스템 활용을 위한 국내 농업용수 공급체계 분석 (Analysis of Agricultural Water Distribution Systems for the Utilization of Water-Demand-Oriented Water Supply Systems)

  • 이광야;최경숙
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
    • /
    • 제31권2호
    • /
    • pp.139-147
    • /
    • 2013
  • This study analyzed agricultural water distribution systems for the utilization of water demand-oriented water supply systems. Three major TM/TC(telemeter/telecontrol) districts of agricultural water management were selected for analyzing the characteristics of the water distribution systems. In addition, the characteristics of the water supply systems for general water supply zones based on irrigation facilities were also investigated, along with the case of special water management during the drought season. As a result, high annual and monthly variations were observed for the water supply facilities, including the reservoirs and pumping stations. In particular, these variations were more obvious during the drought season, depending on the type of facility. The operations of the pumping stations and weirs were more sensitive to the stream levels than the reservoirs, and the smaller reservoirs were influenced more than the larger reservoirs. Therefore, a water-demand-oriented water supply system should consider the existing general practices of water management in the agricultural sector, and focus on achieving a laborsaving system rather than water conservation in the case of reservoirs. Equal water distribution from the start to the end point of irrigation channels could be an effective solution for managing pumping stations.

  • PDF

제주도 권역별 농업용수 수요량 산정에 대한 고찰 (Estimation of Regional Agricultural Water Demand over the Jeju Island)

  • 최광준;송성호;김진성;임찬우
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제22권5호
    • /
    • pp.639-649
    • /
    • 2013
  • Over 96.2% of the agricultural water in Jeju Island is obtained from groundwater and there are quite distinct characteristics of agricultural water demand/supply spatially because of regional and seasonal differences in cropping system and rainfall amount. Land use for cultivating crops is expected to decrease 7.4% (4,215 ha) in 2020 compared to 2010, while market garden including various vegetable crop types having high water demand is increasing over the Island, especially western area having lower rainfall amount compared to southern area. On the other hand, land use for fruit including citrus and mandarin having low water demand is widely distributed over southern and northern part having higher rainfall amount. The agricultural water demand of $1,214{\times}10^3\;m^3/day$ in 2020 is estimated about 1.39 times compared to groundwater supply capacity of $874{\times}10^3\;m^3/day$ in 2010 with 42.4% of eastern, 103.1% of western, 61.9% of southern, and 77.0% of northern region. Moreover, net secured amount of agricultural groundwater would be expected to be much smaller due to regional disparity of water demand/supply, the lack of linkage system between the agricultural water supply facilities, and high percentage of private wells. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure the total net secured amount of agricultural groundwater to overcome the expected regional discrepancy of water demand and supply by establishing policy alternative of regional water supply plan over the Island, including linkage system between wells, water tank enlargement, private wells maintenance and public wells development, and continuous enlargement of rainwater utilization facilities.

미래 기후변화에 따른 농업용 저수지 용수공급의 불확실성 (Uncertainty of Water Supply in Agricultural Reservoirs Considering the Climate Change)

  • 남원호;홍은미;최진용
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제56권2호
    • /
    • pp.11-23
    • /
    • 2014
  • The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

소규모수도시설의 공급량-수요량 모니터링 체계 구축 및 가뭄 대응 방안 연구 (A Study on the Establishment of Water Supply and Demand Monitoring System and Drought Response Plan of Small-scale Water Facilities)

  • 최정렬;정일문;조현재
    • 지질공학
    • /
    • 제29권4호
    • /
    • pp.469-481
    • /
    • 2019
  • 가뭄으로 인한 제한급수나 단수로 인해 발생할 수 있는 물 복지 소외지역의 불편과 경제적 피해를 예방하기 위해서는 Sand Dam 건설과 같은 구조적 안정화 방안과 더불어 합리적 수요/공급량 관리 등을 통한 비구조적 관리 대책이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 소규모수도시설이 생활용수의 주 공급원인 춘천시 서상리 유역의 가뭄대응을 위해 공급량-수요량 모니터링 체계를 구축하였다. 공급량 모니터링을 위해 상류부 하천의 유량을 측정하였으며, 이를 SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)의 매개변수 보정에 사용하여 일별 유출량을 산정하였다. 수요량 모니터링을 위하여 하천-저수조-가정으로 이어지는 용수 공급 네트워크를 작성하였으며, 저수조의 수위 변화를 측정하여 일별 사용량을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 산정된 일별 공급량과 수요량 간의 관계분석을 통해 용수 부족 여부를 파악할 수 있었으며, 가뭄 대응을 위한 효과적인 지표로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

WaterGEMS모형을 이용한 상수관망 블록시스템의 비상급수계획 평가 (Evaluation of Emergency Water Supply Plan for Block System of Water Network using WaterGEMS)

  • 백천우;전환돈;김중훈;유도근;이광춘
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
    • /
    • 제8권6호
    • /
    • pp.15-20
    • /
    • 2008
  • 상수관망의 수리해석 방법은 demand-driven analysis와 pressure-driven analysis로 구분할 수 있으며, 급작스런 용수수요증가, 관거파괴 등과 같이 비정상운영상태인 용수공급시스템의 수리모의에 demand-driven analysis를 사용할 경우 비현실적인 결과를 줄 수 있다. 특히 현재 국내에서는 비상상황에 대한 비상급수계획 수립 시에 demand-driven analysis를 사용하고 있으나, pressure-driven analysis의 적용을 통한 비상급수계획의 적정성 평가가 수행되어야 할 것이다. 본 연구에서는 pressure-driven analysis를 위해 최근 개발된 WaterGEMS모형을 이용하여 2007년 수도정비 사업을 계획한 J시의 비상급수계획의 적정성을 평가하였다. 적용 결과 소블럭의 용수공급 안정성 향상을 위한 방안 제시가 가능하였으며, 수립된 비상급수계획이 적합한 것으로 판단되었다.

물수지 분석법을 이용한 제주도 권역별 미래 농업용 지하수 공급 가능량 추정 (Estimation of Regional Future Agricultural Available Groundwater Supply in Jeju Island Using Water Balance Method)

  • 송성호;이규상;명우호;안중기;백진희;정차연
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
    • /
    • 제24권2호
    • /
    • pp.23-37
    • /
    • 2019
  • To evaluate the available groundwater supply to the agricultural water demand in the future with the climate change scenarios for 40 sub-regions in Jeju Island, groundwater recharge and the available groundwater supply were estimated using water balance analysis method. Groundwater recharge was calculated by subtracting the actual evapotranspiration and direct runoff from the total amount of water resources and available groundwater supply was set at 43.6% from the ratio of the sustainable groundwater capacity to the groundwater recharge. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the available groundwater supply to the agricultural water demand is estimated to be insufficient in 2020 and 2025, especially in the western and eastern regions of the island. However, such a water shortage problem is alleviated in 2030. When applying the RCP 8.5 scenario, available groundwater supply can't meet the water demand over the entire decade.

단기 물 수요예측 시뮬레이터 개발과 예측 알고리즘 성능평가 (Development of Water Demand Forecasting Simulator and Performance Evaluation)

  • 신강욱;김주환;양재린;홍성택
    • 상하수도학회지
    • /
    • 제25권4호
    • /
    • pp.581-589
    • /
    • 2011
  • Generally, treated water or raw water is transported into storage reservoirs which are receiving facilities of local governments from multi-regional water supply systems. A water supply control and operation center is operated not only to manage the water facilities more economically and efficiently but also to mitigate the shortage of water resources due to the increase in water consumption. To achieve the goal, important information such as the flow-rate in the systems, water levels of storage reservoirs or tanks, and pump-operation schedule should be considered based on the resonable water demand forecasting. However, it is difficult to acquire the pattern of water demand used in local government, since the operating information is not shared between multi-regional and local water systems. The pattern of water demand is irregular and unpredictable. Also, additional changes such as an abrupt accident and frequent changes of electric power rates could occur. Consequently, it is not easy to forecast accurate water demands. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce a short-term water demands forecasting and to develop an application of the forecasting models. In this study, the forecasting simulator for water demand is developed based on mathematical and neural network methods as linear and non-linear models to implement the optimal water demands forecasting. It is shown that MLP(Multi-Layered Perceptron) and ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) can be applied to obtain better forecasting results in multi-regional water supply systems with a large scale and local water supply systems with small or medium scale than conventional methods, respectively.