• Title/Summary/Keyword: vote predictions

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An Overview of Exit Polls for the 2006 Local Elections (2006년 지방선거 출구조사 현황 및 예측오차)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyeon;Kim, Young-Won
    • Survey Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.55-79
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    • 2007
  • This article attempts to provide an overview of the exit polls for the 2006 local elections in Korea. The sampling method, sampling error, non-response rate, and prediction error of the exit polls are reviewed. Also, we explore the fact that the propensity to vote varies according to age and gender of voters. In terms of age and gender, the representativeness of the sample is investigated by comparing to the data released by the National Election Commission. Through this empirical research, we show that the exit poll samples are unbalanced in terms of age and this unbalance may be one of the causes of bias occurred in the prediction of the 2006 local election results. The design effects of the sample design implemented for the exit polls are also examined.

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