• Title/Summary/Keyword: var model

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An Dynamic Analysis on the Relationship among Prices, Trading Volumes, Import Volumes and Demand Using VAR - Focused on Cabbage, Onions, and Garlic - (VAR을 이용한 도매가격, 반입량, 수입량 및 수요량의 동태적 상관분석 -배추, 양파, 마늘을 중심으로-)

  • Nam, Kuk-Hyun;Choe, Young-Chan
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2017
  • This paper analyses the interrelationship among wholesale price, trading volumes, import volumes and demand for three agricultural products (cabbage, onions, and garlic) by using the consumer panel and the data from the Korea Rural Economic Institute and the Korea Customs Service with a VAR model. The results are summarized as below. (1) The prices of three agricultural products decrease when trading volumes increase while the price of cabbage and onions decreases when import volumes increase. But the prices of three agricultural products have little effects on trading volumes. (2) The demand of three agricultural products increases when trading volumes increase while the demand of cabbage and onions increases when import volumes increase. (3) when demand of garlic and cabbage increases by 10%, their price increases by 2.5% and 1.3% respectively. And the demand of garlic has positive effects on import volumes of garlic.

An Analysis on the Yield Curves for Active Bond Managements (적극적 채권운용전략을 위한 수익률곡선 분석)

  • Jeong, Hee-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2008
  • Before the financial crisis in 1997, Korean bond markets had been those of corporate bonds with relatively high market yield. During the period, most of major institutional investors tend to utilize passive strategies such as buying and holding. After the crisis, however, they could not help choosing active bond management strategies because of lowed yield level and intensified competition among the financial institutions. This study is forced on the yield curve, which is the reflection of all information on the bond investment environments. The study also make analysis on the major economic and securities market factors and its structural relationship with the shape of the curve such as level, curvature and slope. For these purposes, an empirical model based on the Nelson-Siegel Model is estimated with the data during $1999{\sim}2006$. Out-of-sample forecasting is also made to test the usefulness of the estimated model. In addition, the dependent variables which are the estimates of level and slope are estimated on the macro variables and securities market variables. VAR and SUR models are used for the estimation. Estimation results show that level and slope of the yield curve are influenced by the target call rate change, exchange rate change rate, inflation rate. These results provide practical implications for the active managements in the overall treasury bond markets.

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A Study of a Combining Model to Estimate Quarterly GDP

  • Kang, Chang-Ku
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.553-561
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    • 2012
  • Various statistical models to Estimate GDP (measured as a nation's economic situation) have been developed. In this paper an autoregressive distributed lag model, factor model, and a Bayesian VAR model estimate quarterly GDP as a single model; the combined estimates were evaluated to compare a single model. Subsequently, we suggest that some combined models are better than a single model to estimate quarterly GDP.

An analysis of the causality between international oil price and skipjack tuna price (국제 유가 변동과 원양선망어업 가다랑어 가격 간의 인과성 분석)

  • JO, Heon-Ju;KIM, Do-Hoon;KIM, Doo-Nam;LEE, Sung-Il;LEE, Mi-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.264-272
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    • 2019
  • The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between international oil price as a fuel cost in overseas fisheries and skipjack tuna price as a part of main products in overseas fisheries using monthly time series data from 2008 to 2017. The study also tried to analyze the change of fishing profits by fuel cost. For a time series analysis, this study conducted both the unit-root test for stability of data and the Johansen cointegration test for long-term equilibrium relations among variables. In addition, it used not only the Granger causality test to examine interactions among variables, but also the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to estimate statistical impacts among variables used in the model. Results of this study are as follows. First, each data on variables was not found to be stationary from the ADF unit-root test and long-term equilibrium relations among variables were not found from a Johansen cointegration test. Second, the Granger causality test showed that the international oil prices would directly cause changes in skipjack tuna prices. Third, the VAR model indicated that the posterior t-2 period change of international oil price would have an statistically significant effect on changes of skipjack tuna prices. Finally, fishing profits from skipjack would be decreased by 0.06% if the fuel cost increases by 1%.

An Analysis on Japanese Recession Between 1993 and 2002 (1993~2002년 일본불황에 대한 연구)

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.168-188
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    • 2009
  • Japanese economy suffered from a great recession for one decade between 1993 and 2002, because of the bubble bursting. Recently, a similar situation broke out in the USA and spread throughout the world. This paper investigated the effects of economic policy on the Japanese depression in order to find out how the recession, caused by financial crisis, can be reasonably removed. The analysis of documentary records indicate that there exists an optimum rate in government debt and the point in time of economic policy is decisive. Statistical studies with a VAR model and a State Space Model suggest that government expenditures affect the growth rate of national product but with a short term and it has a time lag of a half year. Income tax has a grievous negative effect on the growth rate with a long term and it works without a time lag. Therefore the increasing of taxation should be put into force very carefully. However private investment is a determinate factor for the recovery of depression.

In Vitro Antioxidant Activity of Some Selected Prunus Species in Korea

  • Jung, Hyun-Ah;Kim, Ae-Ra;Chung, Hae-Young;Choi, Jae-Sue
    • Archives of Pharmacal Research
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.865-872
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    • 2002
  • In the course of the investigations of natural antioxidants, we examined the antioxidant activities of the methanol (MeOH) extracts of some selected Prunus species, including P. buergeriana, P. davidiana, P padus, P. pendula for. ascendens, P. sargentii, P. serrulata var. spontanea and P. yedoensis by three methods as represented by the 1, 1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radical, total ROS (reactive oxygen species) and the peroxynitrite ($ONOO^-$) scavenging activity tests. We also evaluated the activities of the organic solvent-soluble fractions, including the dichloromethane ($CH_2Cl_2$), ethyl acetate (EtOAc), n-butanol (n-BuOH) fractions and the water ($H_2O$) layer of P. serrulata var. spontanea leaves. By means of bioassay-directed fractionation, we isolated eleven known flavonoids (1-11) from the EtOAc soluble fraction of the MeOH extract of the Prunus serrulata var. spontanea leaves, exhibiting strong antioxidant activity and characterized as prunetin (1), genistein (2), quercetin (3), prunetin $4'-O-{\beta}-glucopyranoside$ (4), kaempferol $3-O-{\alpha}-arabinofuranoside$ (5), prunetin $5-O-{\beta}-glucopyranoside$ (6), kaempferol $3-O-{\beta}-xylopyranoside$ (7), genistin (8), kaempferol $3-O-{\beta}-glucopyranoside$ (9), quercetin $3-O-{\beta}-glucopyranoside$ (10) and kaempferol $3-O-{\beta}-xylopyranosyl-(1{\rightarrow}2)-{\beta}-glucopyranoside$ (11). Compounds 3 and 10 showed good activities in all tested model systems. Compounds 2 and 8 showed scavenging activities in the DPPH and $ONOO^-$ tests, while compounds 5, 7, 9 and 11 were active in the $ONOO^-$ and ROS tests. On the other hand, compounds 1, 4 and 6 did not show any activities in the tested model systems.

Methanol Extract of Cassia mimosoides var. nomame Attenuates Myocardial Injury by Inhibition of Apoptosis in a Rat Model of Ischemia-Reperfusion

  • Lim, Sun-Ha;Lee, Jong-Won
    • Preventive Nutrition and Food Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 2012
  • Interruption of blood flow through coronary arteries and its subsequent restoration triggers the generation of a burst of reactive oxygen species (ROS), leading to myocardial cell death. In this study, we determined whether a methanol extract of Cassia mimosoides var. nomame Makino could prevent myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury. When radical scavenging activity of the extract was measured in vitro using its ${\alpha}$,${\alpha}$-diphenyl-${\beta}$-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radical quenching ability, the extract showed an activity slightly lower than that of ascorbic acid. Three days after oral administration of the extract (400 mg/kg/day) to rats, myocardial ischemia/reperfusion injury was generated by 30 min of ligation of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD), followed by 3 hr reperfusion. Compared with the vehicle-treated group, administration of the extract significantly reduced infarct size (IS) (ratio of infarct area to area at risk) in the extract-treated group by 28.3%. Reduction in the cellular injury was mediated by attenuation of Bax/Bcl-2 ratio by 33.3%, inhibition of caspase-3 activation from procaspase-3 by 40%, and subsequent reduction in the number of apoptotic cells by 66.3%. These results suggest that the extract attenuates myocardial injury in a rat model of ischemia-reperfusion by scavenging ROS, including free radicals, and consequently blocking apoptotic cascades. Therefore, intake of Cassia mimosoides var. nomame Makino might be beneficial for preventing ischemic myocardial injury.

The Impact of Self-Employment on the National Economy (자영업이 국가경제에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Woohyoung
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we suggest proper policy directions through an analysis onthe impact of changes in self-employment on the national economy. In other words, we intend to identify the current status of self-employment jobs and present policy directions for supporting self-employed workers. In order to grasp the dynamic relationship of variables, we used a VAR model to measure the impact of self-employment job fluctuations and macroeconomic variables on each other. The analysis results demonstrate that an exogenous shock to the ratio of self-employed workers does not show a significant impact on the nominal growth ratio. However, when the analysis was done separately on an exogenous shock to the ratio of self-employed workers with employees and without employees, an increase in the ratio of self-employed workers with employees showed a positive impact on nominal growth. On the other hand, an increase in the ratio of self-employed workers without employees showeda negative impact on nominal growth. In future studies, it will be necessary to do additional analysis on quarterly data to estimate the short-term impact of macroeconomic variables on changes in the ratio of self-employed workers.

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Methanol Extract of Cassia mimosoides var. nomame and Its Ethyl Acetate Fraction Attenuate Brain Damage by Inhibition of Apoptosis in a Rat Model of Ischemia-Reperfusion

  • Kim, Ki-Hong;Lee, Jong-Won
    • Preventive Nutrition and Food Science
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.255-261
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    • 2010
  • Ischemic stroke, a major cause of death and disability worldwide, is caused by occlusion of cerebral arteries that, coupled with or without reperfusion, results in prolonged ischemia (hypoxia and hypoglycemia) and, ultimately, brain damage. In this study, we examined whether methanol extract of the whole plant of Cassia mimosoides var. nomame Makino that grows naturally in Korea, as well as Japan and China, and some of its fractions obtained by partitioning with organic solvents could protect human hepatocellular carcinoma cells (HepG2) under hypoxic condition by inhibiting apoptosis. We also investigated if these extracts could attenuate brain damage in a rat model of 2 hr of ischemia, generated by middle cerebral artery occlusion, and 22 hr of reperfusion. The whole extract ($100{\mu}g$/mL) maintained the cell number at more than half of that initially plated, even after 24 hr of cell culture under hypoxic condition (3% $O_2$). In the absence of the whole extract, almost all of the cells were dead by this time point. This improvement of cell viability came from a delay of apoptosis, which was confirmed by observing the timing of the formation of a DNA ladder when assessed by gel electrophoresis. Of fractions soluble in hexane, ethyl acetate (EA), butanol and water, EA extracts were selected for the animal experiments, as they improved cell viability at the lowest concentration ($10{\mu}g$/mL). The whole extract (200 mg/kg) and EA extract (10 and 20 mg/kg) significantly reduced infarct size, a measure of brain damage, by 34.7, 33.8 and 45.2.0%, respectively, when assessed by 2,3,5-triphenyl tetrazolium chloride staining. The results suggest that intake of Cassia mimosoides var. nomame Makino might be beneficial for preventing ischemic stroke through inhibition of brain cell apoptosis.

An Analysis of the Co-Movement Effect of Korean, Chinese, Japanese and US Stock Markets: Focus on Global Financial Crisis (한국·중국·일본·미국 주식시장 간 동조화 현상: 글로벌 금융위기 전·후를 중심)

  • Choi, Sung-Uk;Kang, Sang Hoon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.67-88
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    • 2014
  • The Chinese stock market has increasingly strengthened its market power on other stock markets due to rapid growth of its economy. In this context, this study investigated return spillover effect as well as asymmetric volatility spillover effect using a VAR-Bivariate EGARCH model among stock markets(China, US, Japan, Korea). Furthermore, we conjectured the impact of 2008 global financial crisis on the spillover effect of the Chinese stock market. In our empirical results, the Chinese stock market has a weak return spillover effect to other markets(US, Japan, Korea), but after the global financial crisis, its return spillover effect becomes stronger among other stock markets. In addition, the Chinese stock market have strengthened its asymmetric volatility spillover effect on other stock markets after the Global financial crisis. As a result, the Chinese stock market has an strong influence on other stock markets.