• Title/Summary/Keyword: value engineering

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A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

Study on Influencing Factors of Traffic Accidents in Urban Tunnel Using Quantification Theory (In Busan Metropolitan City) (수량화 이론을 이용한 도시부 터널 내 교통사고 영향요인에 관한 연구 - 부산광역시를 중심으로 -)

  • Lim, Chang Sik;Choi, Yang Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.173-185
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to investigate the characteristics and types of car accidents and establish a prediction model by analyzing 456 car accidents having occurred in the 11 tunnels in Busan, through statistical analysis techniques. The results of this study can be summarized as below. As a result of analyzing the characteristics of car accidents, it was found that 64.9% of all the car accidents took place in the tunnels between 08:00 and 18:00, which was higher than 45.8 to 46.1% of the car accidents in common roads. As a result of analyzing the types of car accidents, the car-to-car accident type was the majority, and the sole-car accident type in the tunnels was relatively high, compared to that in common roads. Besides, people at the age between 21 and 40 were most involved in car accidents, and in the vehicle type of the first party to car accidents, trucks showed a high proportion, and in the cloud cover, rainy days or cloudy days showed a high proportion unlike clear days. As a result of analyzing the principal components of car accident influence factors, it was found that the first principal components were road, tunnel structure and traffic flow-related factors, the second principal components lighting facility and road structure-related factors, the third principal factors stand-by and lighting facility-related factors, the fourth principal components human and time series-related factors, the fifth principal components human-related factors, the sixth principal components vehicle and traffic flow-related factors, and the seventh principal components meteorological factors. As a result of classifying car accident spots, there were 5 optimized groups classified, and as a result of analyzing each group based on Quantification Theory Type I, it was found that the first group showed low explanation power for the prediction model, while the fourth group showed a middle explanation power and the second, third and fifth groups showed high explanation power for the prediction model. Out of all the items(principal components) over 0.2(a weak correlation) in the partial correlation coefficient absolute value of the prediction model, this study analyzed variables including road environment variables. As a result, main examination items were summarized as proper traffic flow processing, cross-section composition(the width of a road), tunnel structure(the length of a tunnel), the lineal of a road, ventilation facilities and lighting facilities.

A Study on the optimum drying condition of sewage sludge cake using continuous microwave full scale dryer (연속적 마이크로파 Full Scale 건조장치를 이용한 하수슬러지 케익의 최적 건조조건 연구)

  • Ha, Sang-An;Jung, Wang-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this research is to evaluate the optimum recycling methods for the sewage sludge cakes at different microwave power-settings and for different periods of time. The dehydrated sewage sludge cakes used in this study was obtained from N wastewater treatment plan in the P City. The beginning drying processes were carried out in a microwave oven with 2,450 MHz frequency and power ranges of 1kW to 4 kW. The continuous conveyer drying system was also operated with 2,450 MHz frequency and power setting, ranging from of 1 kW to 6 kW. Initial moisture content of the sewage cake is 78~80%, and the moisture content decreased rapidly up to 0.2~2(wt%) within short periods due to breaking the cell walls. This study is also conducted to evaluate the characteristics of sewage sludge cakes with respect to important physical parameters effect on the thermal kinetics for evaporation water in the sludge which are operation times, moisture contents, drying rates, input amounts, flow rates and calorific values. It takes 60 minutes and 120 minutes to reach the critical moisture contents with power setting of 4 kW for 3kg/min and 6kg/min of the flow rates respectively. It takes 120 minutes and 110 minutes to reach the critical moisture contents with flow rates of 2.5 cm/min and sludge input of 6kg/min for the power settings of 4 kW and 6 kW respectively. The most effective value of the power for drying the sludge is 4 kW. Operation with 6kg/min and 4kW on 2cm of the sludge thickness can be effectively and inexpensively to reach the critical moisture contents, when you compare 2cm of the sludge thickness with 1cm and 3cm of the sludge thickness.

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Rural Systems Visioneering: Paradigm Shift from Flux Measurement to Sustainability Science (지역시스템 비저니어링: 플럭스 관측에서 지속가능성과학으로의 패러다임 전환)

  • Kim, Joon;Kang, Minseok;Oki, Taikan;Park, Eun Woo;Ichii, Kazuhito;Indrawati, Yohana Maria;Cho, Sungsik;Moon, Jihyun;Yoo, Wan Chol;Rhee, Jiyoung;Rhee, Herb;Njau, Karoli;Ahn, Sunghoon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2018
  • Sustainability science is an emerging transdisciplinary research which necessitates not only the communication and collaboration of scientists, practitioners and stakeholders from different disciplines and interests, but also the paradigm shift from deterministic and reductionist approaches to the old basic. Ecological-societal systems (ESS) are co-evolving complex systems having many interacting parts (or agents) whose random interactions at local scale give rise to spontaneous emerging order at global scale (i.e., self-organization). Here, the flows of energy, matter and information between the systems and their surroundings play a key role. We introduce a conceptual framework for such continually morphing dynamical systems, i.e. self-organizing hierarchical open systems (SOHOs). To understand the structure and functionality of SOHOs, we revisit the two fundamental laws of physics. Re-interpretation of these principles helps understand the destiny and better path toward sustainability, and how to reconcile ecosystem integrity with societal vision and value. We then integrate the so-called visioneering (V) framework with that of SOHOs as feedback/feedforward loops so that 'a nudged self-organization' may guide systems' agents to work together toward sustainable ESS. Finally, example is given with newly endorsed Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Lab (i.e., 'Rural systems visioneering') by Future Earth, which is now underway in rural villages in Tanzania.

The Research on the Life-safety Implementation using the Natural Light LED Lamp in the Disaster Prevention and Safety Management (방재안전 자연광 LED 조명을 이용한 생활안전 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Taeshik;Seok, Gumcheul;So, Yooseb;Choi, Byungshik;Kim, Jaekwon;Cho, Woncheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2016
  • This paper is shown the new method using LED Light, which the light environment is upgraded the natural LED light in the area of Disaster Prevention and Safety Management (PDSD), which the events of deaths is reduced on the Suicide, the Infectious diseases, the safety accidents, the Traffic Accident, the crime, the fire, the Nature Disaster, and which the health and the environment and the safety is implemented using the value of the color LED Light. Research findings include,during 3 weeks in the November 2016, in the ten residents (average living 28.7 years, age 67.5 years) with depressive symptoms in the northern part of Seoul, according to the request of the user, the PDSD natural light LED lighting was installed in the home bedroom or the living room, expectations for the ability to restore physical and mental stability were high (88%), in the same way, after 1 week and 3 weeks, the physical and mental changes were compared and the results,84% in the first week and 90% in the third week and thereafter, the effect of relieving depression was high. We conclude that patients with depression have a good sleep, an uneasy feeling, a sense of security, a good night's sleep, and a good feeling. The PDSD LED Light is expected to contribute in the various areas, which reduced the suicides, which give increased immunity from infectious diseases, which give a crash to reduce accidents caused by negligence, which improve the safe operation of heavy vehicles in which a traffics accident incidence installed on the highest point, which improve the safety function on the 'safety way home' for the safety of the community, which due to fire gives alleviate the emotional anxiety of firefighters, which improve the environment for long-term control room working during decision making caused by natural disasters.

In vitro anti-inflammatory activity of extracts from Potentilla supina in murine macrophage RAW 264.7 cells (개소시랑개비 추출물의 RAW264.7대식세포에서 in vitro 항염효과)

  • Nam, Jung-Hwan;Kim, Hyun-Sam;Kim, Byoumg-Jin;Yu, Hong-Seob;Chang, Dong-Chil;Jin, Yong-Ik;Yoo, Dong-Lim;Choi, Jong-Keun;Park, Hee-Jhun;Lee, Seung-Bin;Lee, Kyung-Tea;Park, Soo-Jin
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.76-81
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    • 2017
  • Potentilla supina (Rosaceae) has traditionally been used to treat disorders of hemostasis, dysentery, malaria, bloody discharge and arthritis, and it has antinociceptive and anti-inflammatory properties. However, validity of the anti-inflammatory activity has not been scientifically investigated so far. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the anti-inflammatory potential of P. supina using the ethanolic extract of P. supina and its sub-fractions. To evaluate the anti-inflammatory effects of P. supina, we examined the inflammatory mediators such as nitric oxide (NO), inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and prostaglandin $E_2$ ($PGE_2$) in RAW 264.7 cells. Our results indicated that ethyl acetate fraction significantly inhibited LPS-induced NO, iNOS and $PGE_2$ production in RAW 264.7 cells. This result showed that ethyl acetate fraction of P. supina is expected to be a good candidate for development into a source of anti-inflammatory agents.

Study on Radioactive Material Management Plan and Environmental Analysis of Water (II) Study of Management System in Water Environment of Japan (물 환경의 방사성 물질 관리 방안과 분석법에 관한 연구 (II) 일본의 물 환경 방사성물질 관리 체계에 대한 고찰)

  • Han, Seong-Gyu;Kim, Jung-Min
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2015
  • After Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, study and maintenance of monitoring systems have been made at home and abroad. As concerns about radioactive contamination of water have increased in Korea, update of maintenance of managing radioactive materials in water is being made mainly by Ministry of Environment. In this study, we analysed current state of monitoring system modification in Japan, the country directly involved and neighboring country. According to the result, Japan modified the legislations first. Then Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) provides theoretical background of radiological monitoring. And Ministry of the Environment actually watches state of water pollution in public waters and underground water. Finally related agencies like local government are monitoring current state of radioactive contamination in water environment. By region, local monitoring stations share the investigation of the whole country. Also, additional monitoring is running around nuclear facilities. After Fukushima disaster, monitoring for area near Fukushima is added. Among the reference levels, management target value of drinking water and tap water is 10 Bq/kg, and those of public water and underground water are 1 Bq/L. Measuring intervals varied from every hour to once a year, regularly or irregularly depending on the investigation. The main measuring items are air dose rate, gross ${\alpha}$, gross ${\beta}$, ${\gamma}$ radionuclide, Cs-134, Cs-137, Sr-89, Sr-90, I-131, and so on. In comparison, regulations about general public water in Korea need to be modified, while those about area near nuclear facility and drinking water are organized well. In future, therefore, domestic system would be expected to be modified with making reference to the guidelines like WHO's one. As good case of applying international guideline to domestic environment, Japanese system could be a reference when general standard of radioactivity in public water is made in Korea.

Development of a Window Program for Searching CpG Island (CpG Island 검색용 윈도우 프로그램 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Bong
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.1132-1139
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    • 2008
  • A CpG island is a short stretch of DNA in which the frequency of the CG dinucleotide is higher than other regions. CpG islands are present in the promoters and exonic regions of approximately $30{\sim}60$% of mammalian genes so they are useful markers for genes in organisms containing 5-methylcytosine in their genomes. Recent evidence supports the notion that the hypermethylation of CpG island, by silencing tumor suppressor genes, plays a major causal role in cancer, which has been described in almost every tumor types. In this respect, CpG island search by computational methods is very helpful for cancer research and computational promoter and gene predictions. I therefore developed a window program (called CpGi) on the basis of CpG island criteria defined by D. Takai and P. A. Jones. The program 'CpGi' was implemented in Visual C++ 6.0 and can determine the locations of CpG islands using diverse parameters (%GC, Obs (CpG)/Exp (CpG), window size, step size, gap value, # of CpG, length) specified by user. The analysis result of CpGi provides a graphical map of CpG islands and G+C% plot, where more detailed information on CpG island can be obtained through pop-up window. Two human contigs, i.e. AP00524 (from chromosome 22) and NT_029490.3 (from chromosome 21), were used to compare the performance of CpGi and two other public programs for the accuracy of search results. The two other programs used in the performance comparison are Emboss-CpGPlot and CpG Island Searcher that are web-based public CpG island search programs. The comparison result showed that CpGi is on a level with or outperforms Emboss-CpGPlot and CpG Island Searcher. Having a simple and easy-to-use user interface, CpGi would be a very useful tool for genome analysis and CpG island research. To obtain a copy of CpGi for academic use only, contact corresponding author.

Performance Evaluation of WWTP Based on Reliability Concept (신뢰성에 기초한 하수처리장 운전효율 평가)

  • Lee, Doo-Jin;Sun, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.348-356
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    • 2007
  • Statistical and probabilistic method was used in the analysis of data, which is the most effective one in describing the various natures, and the methodology relating the results with the design was developed. Influents and effluents of three treatment plants were analyzed and the focus was made on BOD, COD, SS, IN, TP The fluctuations of influent such as BOD, COD, SS were extremely large and their standard deviations(st.dev) were more than 10 mg/L. but those of TN, TP were small; the st.dev was 6.6 mg/L for TN, 0.6 mg/L for TP, respectively. But, effluent concentration showed consistent pattern regardless of the influent fluctuations, the st.dev was ranged between 0.28 and 4.48 mg/L. Effluent distributional characteristics were as follows; BOD, COD were distributed normally, but SS, TN, and TP, log-normally; unsymmetric and skewed to the right. The coefficient of reliability(COR) based on the results of statistics of data was introduced to evaluate the process performance an4 to reflect the process performance to the process design. The coefficient of reliability relates the design value(the goal) with the standards and it can be used in operating treatment facilities under a certain reliability level and/or in evaluating the reliability of the treatment facilities on operation. Each treated water quality of effluent showed the half of water quality standards in the level of 50% percentile and all treatment plant was achieved 100% probability of water quality standards. It was concluded that the variability of the process performance should be reflected to the design procedure and the standards through the analysis based on the statistics and the probability.

Physicochemical Properties of Citrus Hallabong Granules (한라봉 감귤 과립의 물리화학적 특성)

  • Lee, Chung-Woo;Kim, Mi-Bo;Oh, Young-Ju;Lim, Sang-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.537-543
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    • 2014
  • Three different granule powders of Citrus Hallabong were prepared with different ratios of fresh juice and citric acid (J10C3=10.0:3.08, J08C4=8.75:4.33, J07C5=7.5:5.58) at fixed quantities of juice powder (70%), pressed cake powder (10%), and additives (6.92%), and their physicochemical properties were measured and compared with targeted commercial product (CP). The moisture content of Hallabong granules (HG) was 5.08~5.44% (w/w), which was two times higher than that of CP. Titratable acidities increased with higher citric acid content and were 1.7~2.3 times lower in HG compared to that of CP. Soluble solids of HG increased with higher citrus juice content ($90{\sim}98^{\circ}Brix$) and were slightly lower than that of CP. Vitamin C contents of HG increased with higher citrus juice content and were 5.8~7.6 times lower than that of CP. In terms of color difference, L and b values of HG were higher while a value was lower than those of CP. Bulk and compaction densities of HG were 0.541~0.660 g/mL and 0.561~0.689 g/mL, respectively and were similar to those of CP. Water solubility and swelling capacity were 66.6~72.0% and 3.84~6.40 g/g, respectively, and were similar to those of CP. Hygroscopicity of HG after an hour of elapsed time was 1.6~1.8 times higher than that of CP. Sensory evaluation test showed that color, sweetness, and overall acceptance of HG were not significantly different from those of CP, whereas flavor and bitterness of HG were lower than those of CP. In conclusion, convenient food granules could be made with Citrus Hallabong juice and pressed cake, which is similar to the commercial product.