• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.130-142
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• 2018

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to introduce regression method in the presence of competing risks and to show how you can use the method with hypothetical data. Methods: Survival analysis has been widely used in biostatistics division. But the same method has not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks, where more than a couple of causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not utilized in the area of reliability or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced. In addition, sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function along with some graphs. Lastly we compare cumulative incidence functions with regression type analysis briefly. Results: We used cumulative incidence function to calculate the survival probability or failure probability in the presence of competing risks. We also drew some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime. Conclusion: This research shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime in the presence of competing risks. Cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful in stead. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.923-931
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• 2008

Coupling rubber pad are important components in railway vehicles. It can be used for reduce shock, vibration and noise. Simple tension, equi-biaxial tension and pure shear test were performed to acquire the coefficient of rubber material which were Mooney-Rivlin and Ogden model. The finite element analysis was executed to evaluate the behavior of deformation and stress distribution by using the commercial finite element analysis code. Useful life evaluation are very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability of the rubber components. In this paper, useful life prediction of rubber pad for railway vehicle were experimentally investigated. Accelerated heat-aging test for rubber material were carried. Compression set results changes as the threshold are used for assessment of the useful life and time to threshold value were plotted against reciprocal of absolute temperature to give the Arrhenius plot.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.7-12
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• 2006

Local minority carrier lifetime control by means of particle irradiation is an useful technology for Production of modern silicon Power devices. Crystal damage due to ion irradiation can be easily localized by choosing appropriate irradiation energy and minority tarrier lifetime can be reduced locally only in the damaged layer. In this work, proton irradiation technology was used for improving the switching characteristics of a un diode. The irradiation was carried out with various energy and dose condition. The device was characterized by current-voltage, capacitance-voltage, and reverse recovery time measurements. Forward voltage drop was increased to 1.1 V at forward current of 5 A, which was $120\%$ of its original device. Reverse leakage current was 64 nA at reverse voltage of 100 V, and reverse breakdown voltage was 670 V which was the same voltage as original device without irradiation. The reverse recovery time of device was reduced to about $20\%$ compared to that of original device without irradiation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.566-594
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• 2000

In most LMFBR(Liquid Metal Fast Breed Reactor) design, the operating temperature is very high and the time-dependent creep and stress-rupture effects become so important in reactor structural design. Therefore, unlike with conventional PWR, the normal operating conditions can be basically dominant design loading because the hold time at elevated temperature condition is so long and enough to result in severe total creep ratcheting strains during total service lifetime. In this paper, elevated temperature design of the conceptually designed baffle annulus regions of KALIMER(Korea Advanced Liquid MEtal Reactor) reactor internal strictures is carried out for normal operating conditions which have the operating temperature 53$0^{\circ}C$ and the total service lifetime of 30 years. For the elevated temperature design of reactor internal structures, the ASME Code Case N-201-4 is used. Using this code, the time-dependent stress limits, the accumulated total inelastic strain during service lifetime, and the creep-fatigue damages are evaluated with the calculation results by the elastic analysis under conservative assumptions. The application procedures of elevated temperature design of the reactor internal structures using ASME Code Case N-201-4 with the elastic analysis method are described step by step in detail. This paper will be useful guide for actual application of elevated temperature design of various reactor types accounting for creep and stress-rupture effects.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.182-190
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• 2014

This paper presents new practical accelerated life test plans with different censoring times at three levels of stress for Weibull and lognormal lifetime distributions, respectively. The proposed plans are compared with the corresponding two-level statistically optimal plans and three-level compromise and practical plans. Computational results indicate that new practical plans have been more precise and effective than the existing three-level plans under a constraint of total testing time. In addition, a procedure to determine useful ALT plans is illustrated with a numerical example.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.151-165
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• 1997

We propose a method for estimating the probability of perfect PM from successive failure times of a repairable system. The system under study is maintained preventively at periodic times, and it undergoes minimal repair at failure. We consider Brown-Proschan imperfect PM model in which the system is restored to a condition as good as new with probability P and is otherwise restored to its condition just prior to failure. We discuss the identifiability problem when the PM modes are not recorded. The expectation-maximization principle is employed to handle the incomplete data problem. We assume that the lifetime distribution belongs to a parametric family with increasing failure rate. For the two parameter Weibull lifetime distribution, we propose a specific algorithm for finding the maximum lifelihood estimates of the reliability parameters : the probability of perfect PM (P), as well as the distribution parameters. The estimation method will provide useful results for maintaining real systems.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.16-17
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• 2005

Local lifetime control by ion implantation has become an useful tool for production of modern power devices. In this work, punch-through diodes were irradiated with protons for the high speed power diode fabrication. Proton irradiation was executed at the various energy and dose conditions. Characterization of the device was performed by I-V, C-V and Trr measurement. We obtained enhanced reverse recovery time characteristics which was about 45% of original device and about 73% of electron irradiated device. The measurement results showed that proton irradiation was able to effectively reduce minority carrier lifetime.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.1-7
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• 2013

This paper is a case study of reliability assessment with field warranty data of Clutch Master Cylinder (CMC) in hydraulic clutch system. We estimate lifetime distribution using field warranty data which contain much useful information for understanding reliability of the system in the real-world environments. However, the estimated parameters are far from existing reference values, which seems to be caused right censored field warranty data. To modify the parameters, we use the information of the durability test which is performed to verify that the lifetime of the item meets the required level. After that, we can observe that the modified parameters are closer to the existing reference values. This case study shows a possible idea to supplement lack of right censored field warranty data and its applicability.

• Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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• 2007.07a
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• pp.52-54
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• 2007

The LEO satellite generates the power during day and consumes the power during night, so the power changes repeatedly. The power fluctuation must be verified, because it affects the mission operation and lifetime of satellite. This study describes the test-set for verification of Electrical Power Subsystem and two verification items using it. The verification test of EPS will be useful to predict the mission lifetime and to decide the mission operation of satellite.