• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.92-104
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• 2015

In order to analyze the impacts of climate change, a time and space integrated model was developed in this study using system dynamics and GIS. The model built was used to carry out a simulation on the inundation impact on A-gu of Busan Metropolitan city resulting from the sea level rise scenario of IPCC and storm surge, which is the worst case. Through this, the flooded area and population until 2100 were predicted. Also, the result and significance of each alternative was reviewed improving the model by establishing alternative scenarios of protection, accommodation and retreat as plans of reaction to sea level rise. The combination of system dynamics and GIS has advantages of how the diverse variables change until the target year can be traced and, accordingly, not only the results but also the processes of spatial change can be examined by calculating the value of change process at each time step. The synergy of this model presumed to be a foothold for solving problems which are becoming difficult to predict due to increase in uncertainty and complexity such as the support for decision making for urban resilience to natural disasters.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.47-57
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• 2016

PURPOSES : This study aims to examine the differences between the existing traffic demand forecasting method and the traffic demand forecasting method considering future regional development plans and new road construction and expansion plans using a four-step traffic demand forecast for a more objective and sophisticated national highway maintenance. This study ultimately aims to present future pavement deterioration and budget forecasting planning based on the examination. METHODS : This study used the latest data offered by the Korea Transport Data Base (KTDB) as the basic data for demand forecast. The analysis scope was set using the Daejeon Metropolitan City's O/D and network data. This study used a traffic demand program called TransCad, and performed a traffic assignment by vehicle type through the application of a user equilibrium-based multi-class assignment technique. This study forecasted future traffic demand by verifying whether or not a realistic traffic pattern was expressed similarly by undertaking a calibration process. This study performed a life cycle cost analysis based on traffic using the forecasted future demand or existing past pattern, or by assuming the constant traffic demand. The maintenance criteria were decided according to equivalent single axle loads (ESAL). The maintenance period in the concerned section was calculated in this study. This study also computed the maintenance costs using a construction method by applying the maintenance criteria considering the ESAL. The road user costs were calculated by using the user cost calculation logic applied to the Korean Pavement Management System, which is the existing study outcome. RESULTS : This study ascertained that the increase and decrease of traffic occurred in the concerned section according to the future development plans. Furthermore, there were differences from demand forecasting that did not consider the development plans. Realistic and accurate demand forecasting supported an optimized decision making that efficiently assigns maintenance costs, and can be used as very important basic information for maintenance decision making. CONCLUSIONS : Therefore, decision making for a more efficient and sophisticated road management than the method assuming future traffic can be expected to be the same as the existing pattern or steady traffic demand. The reflection of a reliable forecasting of the future traffic demand to life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) can be a very vital factor because many studies are generally performed without considering the future traffic demand or with an analysis through setting a scenario upon LCCA within a pavement management system.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.32-46
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• 2013

Because of short length between interchanges, traffic congestion has been caused by a lot of short trip traffic in the urban section of interregional expressway. Also, in case of expressway with Bus Only Lane, bus causes dangerous situation by conflicting between vehicles and buses in order to access from Bus Only Lane to IC. Therefore, this study aims to propose Express Lane applied by Bus Only Lane as a new lane operation in order to efficiently operate and to analyze the effectiveness on constructing Express Lane to the Pangyo-Hannam section in Gyeongbu Expressway. The study analyzes effectiveness by scenario using the micro traffic simulation tool, VISSIM 5.4. For this, the indicators which evaluate construction effect of Express Lane, are used by average delay time, average speed and total travel time. The results of the study showed the best effectiveness when Express Lane installed one, and it represented an ideal traffic condition when long distance trip traffic of the whole traffic is 25% in the study section. Therefore, the construction of Express Lane using Bus Only Lane achieves positive effectiveness on safety and expense aspect as well as uncongested flow.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.187-193
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• 2020

The increase in the area of impervious water due to the recent abnormal weather conditions and rapid urbanization led to a decrease in the amount of low current, resulting in an increase in the amount of surface runoff. Increased surface runoff is causing erosion, destruction of underwater ecosystems, human and property damage in urban areas due to flooding of urban river. The damage has been increasing in Korea recently due to localized heavy rains, typhoons and floods. As a countermeasure, the Busan Metropolitan Government will proceed with the creation of the Eco-Delta City waterfront zone in Busan with the aim of creating a future-oriented waterfront city from 2012 to 2023. Therefore, the current urban river conditions and precipitation data were collected by utilizing SWMM developed by the Environment Protection Agency, and the target basin was selected to simulate flood damage. Measures to reduce flood damage in various cases were proposed using simulated data. It is a method to establish a disaster prevention plan for each case by establishing scenario for measures to reduce flood damage. Considering structural and non-structural measures by performing an analysis of the drainage door with a 30-year frequency of 80 minutes duration, the expansion effect of the drainage pump station is considered to be greater than that of the expansion of the drainage door, and 8 scenarios and corresponding alternatives were planned in combination with the pre-excluding method, which is a non-structural disaster prevention measure. As a result of the evaluation of each alternative, it was determined that 100㎥/s of the pump station expansion and the pre-excluding EL.(-)1.5m were the best alternatives.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

In an effort to establish adaptive measures for low carbon use and climate change, this study developed storylines for shared socio-economic reference pathways(SSP) and simulated change in land use for each storyline. First, cellular automata modeling was performed using past data, and a transition rule for the local characteristics of each planning area under study was derived by comparing with the results of the base year. Second, three storylines were formulated based on the hypothesized change in land use for the SSP. SSP1, the scenario for sustainability, assumed that the land was developed into a compact city, SSP2 assumed the development of a road through the middle of the land while maintaining the current situation, and SSP3 assumed unsustainable development into a fragmented world. Third, change in land use depending on planning area was predicted by integrating the SSP scenarios with cellular automata(CA) modeling. According to the results of analysis using the SSP scenarios, the urban area ratio increased slightly up to 2020 in SSP1 and up to 2030 in SSP2 and did not change any more subsequently, but it increased continuously until 2050 in SSP3 that assumed low level urban planning. These results on change in land use are expected to contribute towards making reasonable decisions and policies on climate change, and the outcomes of simulation derived from spatial downscaling, if applied to vulnerability assessment, will be useful to set the priority of policies on climate change adaptation.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.153-170
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• 2013

This study was conducted to analyze the thermal comfort in the urban neighborhood park and to obtain a plan for improvement of the thermal environment. First, in the result of the analysis of the distribution characteristics of the park's main thermal environment factors and differences among types of space, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed did not show a clear difference spatially. However, the median radiant temperature showed great differences according to the openness of the space and the covering material. According to the evaluation of thermal comfort by types of space based on derived thermal environmental factors, the PMV value of the square was the highest at 4.39, the paths showed 2.58, greenery 1.90, and resting spaces 0.42. In the result of the PMV regression model established for the evaluation of the significance of these thermal environment factors that decide thermal comfort, it showed that the relative significance to the PMV was as follows in decreasing order: median radiant temperature(1.084), wind speed(-0.280), temperature(0.013), and relative humidity(-0.009). When conducting a scenario analysis on the areas with need for improvement in thermal environment, it was found that through reflectivity, color and the change in the physical properties of packing materials the thermal comfort felt by the body could be improved, and it is believed that through this the improvement plan can be established.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.257-289
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• 2002

In this study we analyse how the tobacco prices have an effect on the national health. The level of tobacco price will fluctuate its consumers demand and eventually affect the national health status. We estimate tobacco consumption function as well as households'demand system in which tobacco and health expenditure functions are included. Demand elasticities are estimated and evaluated in order to find future policies to improve the national health by controlling the national tobacco consumption There are two econometric approaches app1ied in this study. The lent tobacco demand analysis method is mm tobacco consumption function model. Using national indices of tobacco price, tobacco consumption and other related variables, tobacco consumption function is estimated. The other is micro demand system analysis by using Korean urban households expenditure data during the period of 1991 to 1999. The own price elasticity which is estimated from national tobacco demand per capita is -0.19 for all people and -0.176 for the adults over 18, which means 100% price increase will cause decease of tobacco demand at 19% and 17.6% per each The cross vice elasticity which is estimated between tobacco and health expenditure of urban households demand system is -0.2328, which implies 100% of tobacco price increase will decrease 23.28% of health expenditure. The low price elasticities imply that tobacco price increase will increase total tobacco sales volume. 100% of tobacco price increase will bring about 79% increase of total tobacco sales volume according to our scenario. Korea's tobacco demand is negatively responsive to fluctuations in its price. The health expenditure is also negatively relatedto the tobacco price fluctuation. These empirical outputs could be utilized as the basis of government's tax policy to control national tobacco consumption in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.181-190
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• 2017

Population congestion and increasing porosity caused by urbanization and increasing rainfall intensity are the main reasons for urban inundation damage. In order to reduce the damage to urban flooding, it is necessary to take a inundation analysis model that can be considered the topographic impact (i.e., building and road) and simulate the detailed inundation areas. In this study, Grid based Inundation Analysis Model (GIAM) is developed using a two-dimensional shallow water equations. The study area is Gangnam basin, with a surface area of $7.4km^2$, which includes 5 drainage areas such as Nonhyun, Yeoksam, Seocho 1, 2, and 3. EPA SWMM5 is used for simulating the overflows at each manhole. GIAM model is constructed to allow for simulating a inundation area with 6 m grid size. The inundation analysis is conducted in two heavy rainfall events (Sep. 21, 2010 and July 27, 2011) for the model evaluation. The accuracy of the simulated inundation area is calculated 0.61 and 0.57 at POD index using the historical flooded area report. The developed model will be used as a tool for analyzing the flood prone areas based on rainfall scenario, and a tool for predicting the detailed inundation area in the real-time.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.6D
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• pp.871-879
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• 2008

Recently, as there are a rise in the standard of living and higher concerns of an electromagnetic wave and environment, undergrounding the aerial cables which are supported by large pylons and generally considered as the least attractive feature of an urban area is on an increasing trend to improve aesthetic benefits and electric reliability. This study applied Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) which is expected to become an effective tool to measure indirect benefit to estimate the substantial benefits of undergrounding overhead power line projects in an urban area. The tunneling construction project of the 345kV Shinsungnam electric power cable in Seongnam city was selected and a hypothetical scenario was given to respondents to determine their levels of Willingness to Pay (WTP) for undergrounding overhead power lines. The result from the estimation of the WTP of undergrounding overhead power lines in Seongnam city was calculated as approximately 17.1 billion won. Placing existing overhead lines underground is difficult to justify economically. Most undergrounding costs appear to be justified by aesthetic and public policy considerations. Therefore, considering the result of this study, undergrounding overhead power lines is of great benefit to public.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.6
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• pp.721-733
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• 2023

As the frequency of extreme rainfall events increase due to climate change, climate change adaptation measures have been proposed by the central and local governments. In order to reduce flood damage in urban areas, various flood response policies, such as low impact development techniques and enhancement of the capacity of rainwater drainage networks, have been proposed. When these policies are established, regional characteristics and policy-effectiveness from the cost-benefit perspective must be considered for the flood mitigation measures. In this study, capacity enhancement of rainwater pipe networks and low impact development techniques including green roof and permeable pavement techniques are selected. And the flood reduction effect of the target watershed, Gwanak campus of Seoul National University, was analyzed using SWMM model which is an urban runoff simulation model. In addition, along with the quantified urban flooding reduction outputs, construction and operation costs for various policy scenarios were calculated so that cost-benefit analyses were conducted to analyze the effectiveness of the applied policy scenarios. As a result of cost-benefit analysis, a policy that adopts both permeable pavement and rainwater pipe expansion was selected as the best cost-effective scenario for flood mitigation. The research methodology, proposed in this study, is expected to be utilized for decision-making in the planning stage for flood mitigation measures for each region.