• Title/Summary/Keyword: unit root test

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Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in Thailand and China: Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing

  • RUANKHAM, Warawut;PONGPRUTTIKUL, Phoommhiphat
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.9
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2021
  • This study aimed to investigate the existence of the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) puzzle in international macroeconomics by applying the conditional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the long-run relationship between national savings and investments in Thailand and China. The input of this study relied on annual national savings and investments as a fraction of GDP during 1980-2019 which was collected from China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Thailand National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). Hypothetically, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were applied to test the stationary properties and to investigate the integration level of selected time series. The empirical results, confirmed by cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum square (CUSUMSQ), maintained no serial correlation and structural break problems. The finding of this study suggested that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Thailand did not exist significantly. Thailand's national savings and investments nexus was independent, following the classic economic idea that financial liberalization, or perfect capital mobility, allowed national savings and investments to flow freely to countries with better interest rates. Whereas, a strong significant correlation was found in the case of China during the fixed exchange rate regime switching in 1994 and post WTO participation after 2001-2019.

Evaluating the asymmetric effects of nuclear energy on carbon emissions in Pakistan

  • Majeed, Muhammad Tariq;Ozturk, Ilhan;Samreen, Isma;Luni, Tania
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.1664-1673
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    • 2022
  • Achieving sustainable development requires an increasing share of green technologies. World energy demand is expected to rise significantly especially in developing economies. The increasing energy demands will be entertained with conventional energy sources at the cost of higher emissions unless eco-friendly technologies are used. This study examines the asymmetric effects of nuclear energy on carbon emissions for Pakistan from 1974 to 2019. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests suggest that variables are integrated of order one and bound test of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL confirm a long-run relationship among selected variables. The ARDL, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) results show that the coefficient of nuclear energy has a negative and significant impact on emissions in both short and long run. Further, the NARDL finding shows that there exists an asymmetric long-run association between nuclear energy and CO2 emissions. The vector error correction method (VECM) results indicate that there exists a bidirectional causal relationship between nuclear energy and carbon emissions in both the short and long run. Additionally, the impact of nuclear energy on ecological footprint has been examined and our findings remain robust.

Spillovers of Education and Job Training in Bringing Sustainable Economic Development in Pakistan: The Role of Research and Development Revisited

  • AMIN, Sara;LIAQAT, Malka;SAFDAR, Noreen;IQBAL, Sidra
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2022
  • Current research intended to measure the spillovers of education and on-the-job training to enhance sustainable economic development. Consideration of research and development expenditures for on-the-job training expands the impact of education and, thus, may provide spillovers for Pakistan's economic growth. The primary focus of this research is to look at the combined impact of education and research and development spending as value-added variables for sustainable growth. The econometric study uses data from a variety of sources, including the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Pakistan Economic Survey, and world development indices. The secondary annual time series data from 1976 to 2019 are analyzed. To adequately estimate the empirical model, ARDL has been used while the presence of the unit root has been tested using the ADF test. The findings show that education, research, and development all contribute to all-inclusive, sustainable economic growth. Labor and capital, among other traditional components, continue to be the backbone of the development process. Still, the spillover effect is much enhanced with the expansion in education and the on-job training in the form of research and development expenditures. Consequently, the introduction of research and development in education will lead to a sustainable and inclusive economy.

The Impact of Oil Price Inflation on Economic Growth of Oil Importing Economies: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

  • LIAQAT, Malka;ASHRAF, Ayesha;NISAR, Shoaib;KHURSHEED, Aisha
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2022
  • By analyzing the impact of oil prices on economic growth, this study has shown a new insight into the link between oil price inflation and economic growth. The primary goal of this study is to determine if oil prices are pro-growth or anti-growth. To provide empirical proof, the series data for both the core and control variables from 1972 to 2020 was used to justify the association on empirical grounds. To account for the presence of a unit root, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test was used, and after making the series compatible for co-integration, the Autoregressive distributed lag model was used to determine the empirical estimate. Additionally, the empirical models were used to diagnose heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The reference point model reveals that in developing nations like Pakistan, economic growth is anti-growth with an increase in prices, and it responds negatively to economic growth in the long and short run. As a result, oil price inflation in Pakistan fails to have a significant beneficial impact on economic growth in both the long and short run, but it does raise the general price level in the economy.

Global Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Monetary Model

  • ZAFAR, Sadaf;KHAN, Muhammad Arshad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.189-201
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    • 2022
  • The study empirically examines the impact of monetary fundamentals along with global oil prices on the Pak-rupee exchange rate using the monthly data over 2001-2020. Employing the cointegrating vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX) and vector error correction model with exogenous variables (VECMX), the study analyzes the impact of domestic monetary fundamentals while considering the foreign variables as weakly exogenous. In order to account for the structural breaks in the data, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with two structural breaks has been used (Lee & Strazicich, 2003). The empirical results reveal that the domestic and foreign monetary variables significantly explain the exchange rate movements in Pakistan both in the long run and in the short run. The dynamic properties of the monetary model of exchange rate have been analyzed using the persistence profile analysis and generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results reveal that the responses of shocks to domestic monetary fundamentals are consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate. Furthermore, being a net oil importer, a rise in global oil prices significantly depreciated the Pak-rupee exchange rate over the period of study. The global financial crisis (GFC) and pandemic (COVID-19) were also found to cause the Pak-rupee exchange rate depreciation.

Causality Tests of Korean Firm's FDI and Exports toward Vietnam (한국 기업의 대(對)베트남 FDI와 수출 간 인과성 검정)

  • Jihoon Kang
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.107-123
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the Granger Causality relations between Korean FDI and exports in Vietnam using time-series from 2005 to 2019. Using 15-industry semi-annual data of Korean FDI and exports toward Vietnam, the Granger Causality Tests were conducted. Var and VEC models were decided after unit-root and cointegration tests of variables. Findings and implications of the empirical tests are as follows. First, unexpectedly FDI did not Grange-cause exports only in one direction. In two industries, food & beverage and medical & chemical products, there were Granger causality relations in both directions. In eight industries including print, publishig, pulp & paper, exports did Grange-cause FDI. In the rest of five industries including automative & trailer industry, there were no Granger Causality relation in both directions. Second, we presume that the both direction-causality relations are desirable phenomenon for Korea. Because Korean FDI and exports are increasing at the same time. On the other hand, substitution relationship between Korea's exports and FDI occur in the industry that exports did Grange-cause FDI. Finally, more in-depth researches considering Vietnam's consumer demand and the oriented characteristics of FDI are needed. The results of this research will contribute to understand structural patterns of FDI and exports in Vietnam and to make investment and export decisions.

A Study on the Effect on Net Income of the Shipbuilding Industry through Exchange Hedge - Focused on the Global Top 5 Shipbuilders - (환헤지가 조선업체의 당기순이익에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, In karp;Kim, Jong keun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2015
  • This study is to investigate the causal relationship between exchange hedge and the net income of the shipbuilder through the unit root test and co-integration and vector autoregressive model(Vector Autoregressive Model: VAR). First, quarter net income of shipbuilders to order a unit root tests from 2000 to 2013 was used as a value after the Johnson transformation. In the same period, the return on bond futures(KTBF), three years bond yield(KTB3Y), America-Korea exchange differences are weekly data for each quarterly difference in value was converted by utilization, shipbuilding shares after log transformation which it was used. Also, structural change point investigation analysis to verify that looked to take advantage of the structural changes occur in the exchange hedge strategies affecting net income in the shipbuilding industry. Between the exchange hedge and net income of shipbuilders in structural change points detection and analysis showed that structural changes occur starting in 2004. In other words, strategy of shipbuilders about exchange hedge has occurred from "passive exchange hedge" to "active exchange hedge". The exchange hedge of the Korea shipbuilders through the estimation of the VAR was able to grasp that affect the profitability of mutual shipbuilders. Macroeconomic variables and stock prices could also check to see that affected the net income of the shipbuilding industry.

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The Behavioral Analysis of the Trading Volumes of Gwangyang Port: Comparison with Incheon and Pyeongtaek-Dangjin Port (광양항의 물동량 행태분석: 인천항, 평택.당진항과 비교)

  • Mo, Soowon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.111-125
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    • 2012
  • This study investigates the behavioral characteristic difference of the container volumes of three ports-Gwangyang, Incheon, and Pyeongtaek-Dangjin. All series span the period January 2003 to December 2011. I first test whether the series are stationary or not. I can reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. I hitherto make use of error-correction model and find that Gwangyang port is the slowest in adjusting the short-run disequilibrium, whereas the adjustment speed of Incheon is much faster than that of Gwangyang. The impulse response functions indicate that container volumes increase only a little to the negative shocks in exchange rate, while they respond positively to the shocks in the business activity in a great magnitude and decay very slowly to its pre-shock level. meaning that the shocks last very long. The accumulative response to the exchange rate increase of 20 won per dollar and the 5 point industrial production increase is the smallest in Gwangyang, no more than a half of that of two ports. The intervention-ARIMA models also forecast that Gwangyang port will have much lower growth rate than Incheon and Pyeongtaek-Dangjin port in trading volumes.

The Effects of the Changes of Economic Variables on the Import Container Volume of Gwangyang Port (경제변수의 변동이 광양항 수입컨테이너 물동량에 미치는 효과)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.269-282
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    • 2009
  • This study investigates the difference of behavioral patterns between the import container volume of all ports and that of Gwangyang port in Korea. All series span the period January 1999 to December 2008. I first test whether the series are stationary or not. I can reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. I hitherto make use of variance decompositions and impulse response functions, both of which have now been widely used to examine how much movement in one variable can be explained by innovations in different variables and how rapidly these fluctuations in one variable can be transmitted to another. The variance decompositions for the import container volume show that the proportions of the forecast error variance of import container volumes explained by themselves are 30 and 26 per cent after 12 months, respectively. As a result, innovations in exchange rate and business activity explain 70 and 74 per cent of the variance in the import container volume. All in all, innovation accounting indicates that import container volumes are not exogenous with respect to exchange rate and business activity. The impulse responses indicate that container volumes decrease sharply to the shocks in exchange rate and decay very slowly to its pre-shock level, while container volumes respond positively to the shocks in the business activity and disappear very slowly, showing that the shocks last very long. Furthermore Gwangyang port is more sensitive to the change of the exchange rate and the industrial production than all ports.

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Growth of Landscape Tree Species at Two Planting Densities in a Planting Pilot System for Reclaimed Dredging Areas (임해준설매립지 식물재배공정에서 밀도에 따른 조경수목의 생장)

  • Lee, Deok-Beom;Nam, Woong;Kwak, Young-Se;Jeong, In-Ho;Lee, Sang-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.114-123
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    • 2009
  • To investigate the possible use of plants for landscaping in reclaimed soil, a planting pilot system experiment was performed over the course of four years in reclaimed dredging area with four species: Alnus firma, Alnus hirsuta, Pinus thunbergii, and Pyrachantha angustifolia for 4 years. The physicochemical characteristics of the tested soil showed that it was sandy through coming from a reclaimed dredging area. The average pH of the tested soil was 7.16(slight alkali), and electric conductivity(EC) was relatively low, $294{\mu}S/cm$, even though it came from a saltwater area. To test the effect of planting density vs. phytomass by plant specie from a planting basin, the experiment was designed using four plant species with high and low planting densities over 4 years. The planting conditions of the growth of landscape tree species exhibited growth height as follows: A. hirsuta, A. firma, P. thunbergii, and P. angustifolia, whill the DBH followed the order of A. hirsuta, A. firma, and P. thunbergii. The total phytomass of each plant was higher at low density planting areas than high density planting area in terms of total phytomass production and growth distribution in the reclaimed dredging area. Total phytomass per unit area increased as follows: A. hirsuta, A. firma, P. thunbergii, and P. angustifolia. The total phytomass per each tested plant was 2 times higher in low density planting areas than high density planting areas. Total phytomass per unit area, however, was similar or slighty higher in high density planting areas compared to low density areas. Among the tested plants, A. hirsuta showed the highest phytomass, implying that A. hirsuta adapted very well to the reclaimed area and has the capability of a fast growth, nitrogen fixation tree, and utilizing insoluble nutrients through inoculated root nodule bacteria. The yield of phytomass per individual in low density Alnus species was greater than that of the high density. However, those per unit areas had no difference in the density-dependent planting. The ratio of belowground to aboveground was $0.21{\sim}0.26$. Thus, it could be concluded that the Alnus species are potential candidates for ornamental tree species in reclaimed dredging areas. This study offers baseline data for the use of ornamental tree species in reclaimed dredging areas. Additional research is required for different ornamental species in order to increase phytomass of a planting conditions based on reclaimed dredging areas.