• 한국초등과학교육학회지:초등과학교육
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.236-241
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• 2005

The purpose of this study was to investigate the elementary and middle school students' understanding of observation, prediction, and hypothesis in everyday and science educational contexts. The questionnaires for testing understanding of three categories were developed, which obtained Cronbach alpha .91. It was consisted of 40 questions of 10 items related to observation, prediction, and hypothesis. Thy test was administrated to 868 subjects from grade 3 to grade 9. The results showed that the each level of their understanding of observation, prediction, and hypothesis ranged between $29{\~}58\%$, $43{\~}53\%$, and $10{\~}25\%$. The level of understanding of observation and prediction showed tendency to promote increasingly from grade 3 to grade 9, but the level of hypothesis did not.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.1239-1248
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• 2021

본 논문은 학문적인 이해를 기반을 둔 예측을 수행하기 위해 FDNN(: Flood drought index neural network) 알고리즘을 제시한다. 데이터에 의존한 예측이 아닌 학문적인 이해를 기반을 둔 예측을 딥러닝에 적용하기 위해, 알고리즘을 수리, 수문학을 기반으로 구성하였다. 강수량의 입력으로 하천의 유량을 예측하는 모델을 구성하여 K-교차검증을 통해 모델의 성능을 측정한다. 제시한 알고리즘의 성능을 증명하기 위해 시계열 예측에서 가장 많이 사용되는 LSTM(: Long short term memory) 알고리즘의 예측 성능과 비교하여 제시한 알고리즘의 우수성을 나타낸다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.343-351
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• 2008

By supervised learning with p predictors, we frequently obtain a prediction function of the form $y\;=\;f(x_1,...,x_p)$. When $p\;{\geq}\;3$, it is not easy to understand the inner structure of f, except for the case the function is formulated as additive. In this study, we propose to use p simple graphs for visual understanding of complex prediction functions produced by several supervised learning engines such as LOESS, neural networks, support vector machines and random forests.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.563-573
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• 2018

An Expert Seasonal Prediction System for operational Seasonal Outlook (ESPreSSO) is developed based on the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) dynamical prediction and expert-guided statistical downscaling techniques. Dynamical models have improved to provide meaningful seasonal prediction, and their prediction skills are further improved by various ensemble and downscaling techniques. However, experienced scientists and forecasters make subjective correction for the operational seasonal outlook due to limited prediction skills and biases of dynamical models. Here, a hybrid seasonal prediction system that grafts experts' knowledge and understanding onto dynamical MME prediction is developed to guide operational seasonal outlook in Korea. The basis dynamical prediction is based on the APCC MME, which are statistically mapped onto the station-based observations by experienced experts. Their subjective selection undergoes objective screening and quality control to generate final seasonal outlook products after physical ensemble averaging. The prediction system is constructed based on 23-year training period of 1983-2005, and its performance and stability are assessed for the independent 11-year prediction period of 2006-2016. The results show that the ESPreSSO has reliable and stable prediction skill suitable for operational use.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.118-126
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• 2024

In human conversations, listeners often utilize brief backchannels such as "uh-huh" or "yeah." Timely backchannels are crucial to understanding and increasing trust among conversational partners. In human-machine conversation systems, users can engage in natural conversations when a conversational agent generates backchannels like a human listener. We propose a method that simultaneously predicts backchannels and recognizes speech in real time. We use a streaming transformer and adopt multitask learning for concurrent backchannel prediction and speech recognition. The experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared with previous works while maintaining a similar single-task speech recognition performance. Owing to the extremely imbalanced training data distribution, the single-task backchannel prediction model fails to predict any of the backchannel categories, and the proposed multitask approach substantially enhances the backchannel prediction performance. Notably, in the streaming prediction scenario, the performance of backchannel prediction improves by up to 18.7% compared with existing methods.

• 대기
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.73-104
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• 2023

Over the past 60 years, Korean numerical weather prediction (NWP) has advanced rapidly with the collaborative effort between the science community and the operational modelling center. With an improved scientific understanding and the growth of information technology infrastructure, Korea is able to provide reliable and seamless weather forecast service, which can predict beyond a 10 days period. The application of NWP has expanded to support decision making in weather-sensitive sectors of society, exploiting both storm-scale high-impact weather forecasts in a very short range, and sub-seasonal climate predictions in an extended range. This article gives an approximate chronological account of the NWP over three periods separated by breakpoints in 1990 and 2005, in terms of dynamical core, physics, data assimilation, operational system, and forecast application. Challenges for future development of NWP are briefly discussed.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제5권6호
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• pp.103-110
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• 1997

A performance prediction method is presented for single(double) suction centrifugal pumps with a review of loss correlations given in the previous open literature. Most of the loss analyses mentioned in the present study are one dimensional and this paper investigates several modeling schemes and shows that a fairly good prediction can be achieved by a proper selection of the most important flow parameters resulting from a mean streamline analysis. Predictions of the trends of total head- capacity and pump efficiency-capacity curves agree well with the experimental data in almost the full range of operating conditions. The prediction method developed through this study can serve as a tool to ensure good matching between parts and it can assist the understanding of the operational characteristics of general purpose centrifugal pumps.

• 대한기계학회논문집B
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.804-812
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• 1997

The present study has tested most of loss models previously published in the open literature and found an optimum set of empirical loss models for a reliable performance prediction of centrifugal compressors. In order to improve the prediction of efficiency curves, this paper recommends a modified parasitic loss model. Predicted performance curves by the proposed optimum set agree fairly well with experimental data for a variety of centrifugal compressors. The prediction method developed through this study can serve as a tool for preliminary design and assist the understanding of the operational characteristics of general purpose centrifugal compressors.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2024

In order to prevent accidents via defective ammunition, this paper analyzes recent research on ammunition life prediction methodology. This workanalyzes current shelf-life prediction approaches by comparing the pros and cons of physical modeling, accelerated testing, and statistical analysis-based prediction techniques. Physical modeling-based prediction demonstrates its usefulness in understanding the physical properties and interactions of ammunition. Accelerated testing-based prediction is useful in quickly verifying the reliability and safety of ammunition. Additionally, statistical analysis-based prediction is emphasized for its ability to make decisions based on data. This paper aims to contribute to the early detection of defective ammunition by analyzing ammunition life prediction methodology hereby reducing defective ammunition accidents. In order to prepare not only Korean domestic war situation but also the international affairs from Eastern Europe and Mid East countries, it is very important to enhance the stability of organizations using ammunition and reduce costs of potential accidents.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권8호
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• pp.2610-2615
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• 2021

The prediction of irradiation-induced transition temperature shift for RPV steels is an important method for long term operation of nuclear power plant. Based on the irradiation embrittlement data, an irradiation-induced transition temperature shift prediction model is developed with machine learning method XGBoost. Then the residual, standard deviation and predicted value vs. measured value analysis are conducted to analyze the accuracy of this model. At last, Cu content threshold and saturation values analysis, temperature dependence, Ni/Cu dependence and flux effect are given to verify the reliability. Those results show that the prediction model developed with XGBoost has high accuracy for predicting the irradiation embrittlement trend of RPV steel. The prediction results are consistent with the current understanding of RPV embrittlement mechanism.