• 제목/요약/키워드: underestimation

검색결과 350건 처리시간 0.026초

Towards performance-based design under thunderstorm winds: a new method for wind speed evaluation using historical records and Monte Carlo simulations

  • Aboshosha, Haitham;Mara, Thomas G.;Izukawa, Nicole
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제31권2호
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    • pp.85-102
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    • 2020
  • Accurate load evaluation is essential in any performance-based design. Design wind speeds and associated wind loads are well defined for synoptic boundary layer winds but not for thunderstorms. The method presented in the current study represents a new approach to obtain design wind speeds associated with thunderstorms and their gust fronts using historical data and Monte Carlo simulations. The method consists of the following steps (i) developing a numerical model for thunderstorm downdrafts (i.e. downbursts) to account for storm translation and outflow dissipation, (ii) utilizing the model to characterize previous events and (iii) extrapolating the limited wind speed data to cover life-span of structures. The numerical model relies on a previously generated CFD wind field, which is validated using six documented thunderstorm events. The model suggests that 10 parameters are required to describe the characteristics of an event. The model is then utilized to analyze wind records obtained at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport (KLBB) meteorological station to identify the thunderstorm parameters for this location, obtain their probability distributions, and utilized in the Monte Carlo simulation of thunderstorm gust front events for many thousands of years for the purpose of estimating design wind speeds. The analysis suggests a potential underestimation of design wind speeds when neglecting thunderstorm gust fronts, which is common practice in analyzing historical wind records. When compared to the design wind speed for a 700-year MRI in ASCE 7-10 and ASCE 7-16, the estimated wind speeds from the simulation were 10% and 11.5% higher, respectively.

용수 파력발전소 사례에서 독립 케이슨의 피복석 안정성 연구 (Study of Stability for Armor Weight of Stand-alone Caisson at Yongsu Wave Power Plant)

  • 김건우
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제31권6호
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    • pp.478-484
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    • 2019
  • 용수 파력발전소의 해저케이블이 단락되는 사고가 2014년 겨울에 발생했다. 그 원인을 밝히기 위해서 재현기간 50년 이상의 고파랑 발생 가능성과 케이블 보호공의 설계중량 과소 산정 여부를 검토하였다. 기상청에서 운용하는 부이의 관측자료와 파랑추산자료를 검토하여 겨울동안 발생한 고파랑의 재현기간을 살펴보았다. 케이블 보호공의 설계중량을 검토하기 위해서 항만 및 어항 설계기준 뿐만 아니라 파의 입사각이 큰 경우의 연구결과를 참조해서 직접 안정중량을 계산하였다. 분석 결과, 2014년 겨울동안 재현빈도 50년 이상의 고파랑은 발생하지 않았으며, 경사지게 입사하는 파랑에 대한 케이블 보호공의 중량이 부족해서 보호공이 이탈한 것으로 나타났다.

기상 모델의 초기장 및 자료동화 차이에 따른 수도권 지역의 CMAQ 오존 예측 결과 - 2007년 6월 수도권 고농도 오존 사례 연구 - (An impact of meteorological Initial field and data assimilation on CMAQ ozone prediction in the Seoul Metropolitan Area during June, 2007)

  • 이대균;이미향;이용미;유철;홍성철;장기원;홍지형
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.609-626
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    • 2013
  • Air quality models have been widely used to study and simulate many air quality issues. In the simulation, it is important to raise the accuracy of meteorological predicted data because the results of air quality modeling is deeply connected with meteorological fields. Therefore in this study, we analyzed the effects of meteorological fields on the air quality simulation. This study was designed to evaluate MM5 predictions by using different initial condition data and different observations utilized in the data assimilation. Among meteorological scenarios according to these input data, the results of meteorological simulation using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Final) Operational Global Analysis data were in closer agreement with the observations and resulted in better prediction on ozone concentration. And in Seoul, observations from Regional Meteorological Office for data assimilations of MM5 were suitable to predict ozone concentration. In other areas, data assimilation using both observations from Regional Meteorological Office and Automatical Weather System provided valid method to simulate the trends of meteorological fields and ozone concentrations. However, it is necessary to vertify the accuracy of AWS data in advance because slightly overestimated wind speed used in the data assimilation with AWS data could result in underestimation of high ozone concentrations.

SUR 토빗회귀모형에서 베이지안 추정과 최대가능도 추정의 비교 (A Comparison of Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood Estimations in a SUR Tobit Regression Model)

  • 이승천;최병수
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.991-1002
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    • 2014
  • Greene (2004a,b), Lee와 Choi (2014) 등의 연구에서 토빗 회귀모형의 최대가능도 추정은 표준오차를 과소추정한다는 것이 알려졌고, 그 원인의 하나는 오차항 분산의 과소 추정에 있다고 한다. 오차항 분산의 과소 추정은 회귀계수에 대한 가설 검정 및 구간추정에 영향을 미칠 뿐 아니라 독립변수들의 주변효과를 추정하는데에도 영향을 미치게 되므로 토빗 회귀모형에 대한 적절한 분석이 수행되려면 최대가능도 추정의 과소 추정 문제를 해결하여야 한다. 일반적으로 무정보 사전분포에 의한 베이지안 추론 방법은 빈도학파들이 요구하는 효율성을 갖는 경우가 많다. 본 연구에서도 무정보 사전분포에 의한 베이지안 추론을 적용하여, 베이지안 방법론이 SUR 토빗 회귀모형에서 최대가능도 추정의 과소 추정 문제를 해결할 수 있는 하나의 대안이 될 수 있다는 것을 보였다.

UHF 윈드프로파일러 레이더 자료의 품질 개선 (Quality Control of the UHF Wind Profiler Radar)

  • 조원기;권병혁;김박사;김민성;윤홍주
    • 한국전자통신학회논문지
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.277-290
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    • 2018
  • 고정점에서 고도별 바람을 산출할 수 있는 장비인 윈드프로파일러에 의해 관측된 바람 자료는 바람 산출 프로그램인 PCL1300을 활용하여 바람벡터로 제공된다. 현재 프로그램에 설정된 매개변수에 따른 운용의 결과는 3 km 이상 상층 대기 영역의 바람 산출이 어렵다는 것이다. 이는 매개변수에 대한 매우 엄격한 기준으로 인해 다량의 자료가 제거되기 때문이다. 본 연구에서는 바람벡터의 자료 수집 영역을 확장시키고 과소측정을 줄이기 위해 매개변수를 재설정하여 운용 방식을 개선하였다. 바람벡터의 수집률은 72.2%에서 92.2%로 증가하였음에도 풍속의 RMSE는 고도별 오차율 15% 미만에 해당하는 1.5 m/s - 3.1 m/s를 유지하였다.

Optimal Monitoring Intervals and MDA Requirements for Routine Individual Monitoring of Occupational Intakes Based on the ICRP OIR

  • Ha, Wi-Ho;Kwon, Tae-Eun;Jin, Young Woo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제45권2호
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    • pp.88-94
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    • 2020
  • Background: The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has recently published report series on the occupational intakes of radionuclides (OIR) for internal dosimetry of radiation workers. In this study, the optimized monitoring program including the monitoring interval and the minimum detectable activity (MDA) of major radionuclides was suggested to perform the routine individual monitoring of internal exposure based on the ICRP OIR. Materials and Methods: The derived recording levels and the critical monitoring quantities were reviewed from international standards or guidelines by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), and the European Radiation Dosimetry Group (EURADOS). The OIR data viewer provided by ICRP was used to evaluate the monitoring intervals and the MDA, which are derived from the reference bioassay functions and the dose coefficients. Results and Discussion: The optimal monitoring intervals were determined taking account of two requirement conditions on the potential intake underestimation and the MDA values. The MDA requirement values of the selected radionuclides were calculated based on the committed effective dose from 0.1 mSv to 5 mSv. The optimized routine individual monitoring program was suggested including the optimal monitoring intervals and the MDA requirements. The optimal MDA values were evaluated based on the committed effective dose of 0.1 mSv. However, the MDA can be adjusted considering the practical operation of the routine individual monitoring program in the nuclear facilities. Conclusion: The monitoring intervals and the MDA as crucial factors for the routine monitoring were described to suggest the optimized routine individual monitoring program of the occupational intakes. Further study on the alpha/beta-emitting radionuclides as well as short lived gamma-emitting nuclides will be necessary in the future.

Study of modified Westergaard formula based on dynamic model test on shaking table

  • Wang, Mingming;Yang, Yi;Xiao, Weirong
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제64권5호
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    • pp.661-670
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    • 2017
  • The dynamic model test of dam-reservoir coupling system for a 203m high gravity dam is performed to investigate effects of reservoir water on dynamic responses of dam during earthquake. The hydrodynamic pressure under condition of full reservoir, natural frequencies and acceleration amplification factors along the dam height under conditions of full and empty reservoir are obtained from the test. The results indicate that the reservoir water have a stronger influence on the dynamic responses of dam. The measured natural frequency of the dam model under full reservoir is 21.7% lower than that of empty reservoir, and the acceleration amplification factor at dam crest under full reservoir is 18% larger than that under empty reservoir. Seismic dynamic analysis of the gravity dams with five different heights is performed with the Fluid-Structure Coupling Model (FSCM). The hydrodynamic pressures from Westergaard formula are overestimated in the lower part of the dam body and underestimated in its upper part to compare with those from the FSCM. The underestimation and overestimation are more significance with the increase of the dam height. The position of the maximum hydrodynamic pressure from the FSCM is raised with the increase of dam height. In view of the above, the Westergaard formula is modified with consideration in the influence of the height of dam, the elasticity of dam on the hydrodynamic pressure. The solutions of modified Westergaard formula are quite coincident with the hydrodynamic pressures in the model test and the previous report.

2014년 2월 서울의 고농도 미세먼지 기간 중에 CMAQ-DDM을 이용한 국내외 기여도 분석 (Analysis of Domestic and Foreign Contributions using DDM in CMAQ during Particulate Matter Episode Period of February 2014 in Seoul)

  • 김종희;최대련;구윤서;이재범;박현주
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.82-99
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    • 2016
  • This study was carried out to understand the regional contribution of Particulate Matter (PM) emissions from East Asia ($82^{\circ}{\sim}149^{\circ}E$, $18^{\circ}{\sim}53^{\circ}N$) to Seoul during high concentration period in February 2014. The Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 5.0.2 with Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) was used to analyze levels of contributions over Seoul. In order to validate model performance of the CMAQ, predicted PM and its chemical species concentrations were compared to observations in China and Seoul. Model predictions could depict the daily and hourly variations of observed PM. The calculated PM concentrations, however, had a tendency of underestimation. The discrepancies are due to uncertainties of meteorological data, emission inventories and CMAQ model itself. The high PM concentration in Seoul was induced by stationary anticyclone over the West Coast of Korea during 24 to 27 February. The DDM in CMAQ was used to analyze the contributions of emissions from East Asia on Seoul during this PM episode. $PM_{10}$ concentration in Seoul is contributed by 39.77%~53.19% from China industrial and urban region, 15.37%~37.10% from South Korea, and 9.03%~18.05% North Korea. These indicate that $PM_{10}$ concentrations in Seoul during the episode period are dominated by long-range transport from China region as well as domestic sources. It was also found that the largest contribution region in China were Shandong peninsula during the PM event period.

Structural Response of Offshore Plants to Risk-Based Blast Load

  • Heo, YeongAe
    • Architectural research
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2013
  • Offshore oil and gas process plants are exposed to hazardous accidents such as explosion and fire, so that the structural components should resist such accidental loads. Given the possibilities of thousands of different scenarios for the occurrence of an accidental hazard, the best way to predict a reasonable size of a specific accidental load would be the employment of a probabilistic approach. Having the fact that a specific procedure for probabilistic accidental hazard analysis has not yet been established especially for explosion and fire hazards, it is widely accepted that engineers usually take simple and conservative figures in assuming uncertainties inherent in the procedure, resulting either in underestimation or more likely in overestimation in the topside structural design for offshore plants. The variation in the results of a probabilistic approach is determined by the assumptions accepted in the procedures of explosion probability computation, explosion analysis, and structural analysis. A design overpressure load for a sample offshore plant is determined according to the proposed probabilistic approach in this study. CFD analysis results using a Flame Acceleration Simulator, FLACS_v9.1, are utilized to create an overpressure hazard curve. Moreover, the negative impulse and frequency contents of a blast wave are considerably influencing structural responses, but those are completely ignored in a widely used triangular form of blast wave. An idealistic blast wave profile deploying both negative and positive pulses is proposed in this study. A topside process module and piperack with blast wall are 3D FE modeled for structural analysis using LS-DYNA. Three different types of blast wave profiles are applied, two of typical triangular forms having different impulse and the proposed load profile. In conclusion, it is found that a typical triangular blast load leads to overestimation in structural design.

필기체 수표 금액 문장에서의 단어 분리를 위한 공간적 간격 추정 (Spatial Gap Estimation for Word Separation in Handwritten Legal Amounts on BAnk Check)

  • 김인철;김경민
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제9권5호
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    • pp.1096-1101
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문에서는 수표 영상 내의 필기체 문장 금액을 개별 단어로 분리하기 위해 연결 성분 간의 공간적 간격을 효과적으로 측정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 기존의 간격 측정 방법들은 과대추정 또는 과소추정과 같은 문제를 내포하고 있어 무제약적 필기 스타일에 의한 문자의 왜곡과 필기 공간의 제약으로 인한 연결 성분 간 중첩 및 접촉, 그리고 단어 간 또는 문자 간 간격의 불규칙성이 심하게 나타나는 문장 금액에 적용하는데 많은 어려움을 가진다. 본 논문에서는 기존의 측정 방식들을 수정 보완하여 측정 과정에서의 오류를 줄임으로써 단어 분리 성능을 향상시키고자 하였다. 단어 분리 실험 결과로부터 수정된 각 거리 측정법이 대응되는 기존의 측정법에 비해 $2-3\%$ 정도 향상된 단어 분리 성능을 보임을 확인하였다.