• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.71-99
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• 2010

The concept of CoVaR introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009) is a useful tool to measure the risk spillover effect. It can capture the risk contribution of each institution to overall systemic risk. While Adrian and Brunnermeier rely on the quantile regression method in the estimation of CoVaR, we propose a new estimation method using parametric distribution functions such as bivariate normal and $S_U$-normal distribution functions. Based on our estimates of CoVaR for Korean banking industry, we investigate the practical usefulness of CoVaR for a systemic risk measure, and compare the estimation performance of each model. Empirical results show that bank makes a positive contribution to system risk. We also find that quantile regression and normal distribution models tend to considerably underestimate the CoVaR (in absolute value) compared to $S_U$-normal distribution model, and this underestimation becomes serious when the crisis in a financial system is assumed.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.387-400
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• 2012

This study aims at examining the sensitivity of numerical simulations to the resolution of initial and boundary data, and to an application of WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) 3DVAR (Three Dimension Variational data Assimilation). To do this, we ran the WRF model by using GDAS (Global Data Assimilation System) FNL (Final analyses) and the KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) analyses as the WRF's initial and boundary data, and by using an initial field made by assimilating the radar data to the KLAPS analyses. For the sensitivity experiment, we selected a heavy rainfall case of 21 September 2010, where there was localized torrential rain, which was recorded as 259.5 mm precipitation in a day at Seoul. The result of the simulation using the FNL as initial and boundary data (FNL exp) showed that the localized heavy rainfall area was not accurately simulated and that the simulated amount of precipitation was about 4% of the observed accumulated precipitation. That of the simulation using KLAPS analyses as initial and boundary data (KLAPC exp) showed that the localized heavy rainfall area was simulated on the northern area of Seoul-Gyeonggi area, which renders rather difference in location, and that the simulated amount was underestimated as about 6.4% of the precipitation. Finally, that of the simulation using an initial field made by assimilating the radar data to the KLAPS using 3DVAR system (KLAP3D exp) showed that the localized heavy rainfall area was located properly on Seoul-Gyeonggi area, but still the amount itself was underestimated as about 29% of the precipitation. Even though KLAP3D exp still showed an underestimation in the precipitation, it showed the best result among them. Even if it is difficult to generalize the effect of data assimilation by one case, this study showed that the radar data assimilation can somewhat improve the accuracy of the simulated precipitation.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2016

Recently, there has been a growing interest in physical-biological ocean-modeling systems by communities in the fields of science and business. In this paper, we present preliminary results from a coupled physical-biological model for the Northwestern Pacific marginal seas. The ocean circulation component is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), and the lower trophic level ecosystem component is a Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model. The ROMS-NPZD coupled system, with a 25 km resolution, is forced by climatological atmospheric data and predicts the physical variables and concentrations of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus. Model results are compared with remote-sensed sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, and with climatological sea surface salinity and nitrate. Our model adequately reproduces the observed spatial distribution and seasonal variability of nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations as well as physical variables, showing a high correlation in the East Sea (ES) and Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension (KOE) region but relatively low correlation in the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS). Although some deficiencies were found in the biological components, such as the over/underestimation of the intensity of phytoplankton blooms in the ES and KOE/the YS and ECS, our system demonstrates the capability of the model to capture and record dominant seasonal variability in physical-biological processes and this holds out the promise of coming to a better understanding of such processes and making better predictions .

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.201-209
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• 2007

Line transect sampling in a sighting survey is one of most widely used methods for assessing animal abundance. This study applied distance data, collected from three sighting surveys using line transects for finless porpoise that were conducted in 2004 and 2005 off the west coast of Korea, to four models (hazard-rate, uniform, half-normal and exponential) that can use a variety of detection functions, g (x). The hazard-rate model, a derived model for the detection function, should have a shoulder condition chosen using the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), as the most suitable model. However, it did not describe a shoulder shape for the value of g(x) near the track tine and underestimated g (x), just as the exponential model did. The hazard-rate model showed a bias toward overestimating the densities of finless porpoises with a higher coefficient of variation (CV) than the other models did. The uniform model underestimated the densities of finless porpoise but had the lowest CV. The half-normal model described a detection function with a shape similar to that of the uniform model. The half-normal model was robust for finless porpoise data and should be able to avoid density underestimation. The estimated abundance of finless porpoise was 3,602 individuals (95% CI=1,251-10,371) inshore in 2005 and 33,045 individuals (95% CI=24,274-44,985) offshore in 2004.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.195-202
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• 2008

Underestimation of the capacity can have serious economic consequences, as deficient bridges must be posted, repaired or replaced. Accurate prediction of bridge behavior may allow for more bridges to remain in service with or without minor repairs. The presented research is focused on the reliability evaluation of the actual load carrying capacity of existing bridges based on the field testing. Reliability analysis is performed on 17 previously tested bridges. Bridges are first evaluated based on the code specified values and design resistance. However, after the field testing program, it is possible to apply the experimental results into the bridge reliability evaluation procedures. The girder distribution factors obtained from the tests are also applied in the reliability calculation. The results indicate that the reliability indices of selected bridges can be significantly increased due to the reduction of uncertainties without sacrificing the safety of structures, by including the result of field measurement data into calculation.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.693-701
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• 2018

Transfer types at the Seoul Metropolitan Urban Railway Stations can be classified into transfer between lines and station transfer. Station transfer is defined as occurring when either 1) the operating line that operates the tag-in card-reader and that operating the first train boarded by the passenger are different; or 2) the line operating the final alighted train and that operating the tag-out card-reader are different. In existing research, transportation card data is used to estimate transfer volume between lines, but excludes station transfer volume which leads to underestimation of volume through transfer passages. This research applies transportation card data to a method for station transfer volume estimation. To achieve this, the passenger path choice model is made appropriate for station transfer estimation using a modified big-node based network construction and data structure method. Case study analysis is performed using about 8 million daily data inputs from the metropolitan urban railway.

• Imaging Science in Dentistry
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.35-41
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• 2003

Purpose: To aid in determining the volume of graft bone required before a maxillary sinus lift procedure and compare the alveolar bone height measurements taken by panoramic radiographs to those by CT images. Materials and Methods : Data obtained by both panoramic radiographs and CT examination of 25 patients were used in this study. Maxillary sinus volumes from the antral floor to heights of 5 mm, 10 mm, 15 mm, and 20 mm, were calculated. Alveolar bone height was measured on the panoramic images at each maxillary tooth site and corrected by magnification rate (PBH). Available bone height (ABH) and full bone height (FBH) was measured on reconstructed CT images. PBH was compared with ABH and FBH at the maxillary incisors, canines, premolars, and molars. Results: Volumes of the inferior portion of the sinuses were 0.55 ± 0041 ㎤ for 5 mm lifts, 2.11 ± 0.68 ㎤ for 10 mm, 4.26 ± 1.32 ㎤ for 15 mm, 6.95 ± 2.01 ㎤ for 20 mm. For the alveolar bone measurement, measurements by panoramic images were longer than available bone heights determined by CT images at the incisor and canine areas, and shorter than full bone heights on CT images at incisor, premolar, and molar areas (p<0.001). Conclusion: In bone grafting of the maxillary sinus floor, 0.96 ㎤ or more is required for a 5 mm-lift, 2.79 ㎤ or more for a 10 mm-lift, 5.58 ㎤ or more for a 15 mm-lift, and 8.96 ㎤ or more for a 20 mm-lift. Maxillary implant length determined using panoramic radiograph alone could result in underestimation or overestimation, according to the site involved.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.11
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• pp.985-996
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• 2014

When designing hydraulic structures, the chosen method of time distribution in a hyetograph is highly significant. There are several methods used for measuring time distribution. In the case of Huff (1967), which is widely used in Korea, the Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT, 2000), and the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MOLTMA, 2011) have long been increasing their use of this method. The MOLTMA uses the conventional Huff method's measurement of 1 inch (25.4 mm) as the threshold. Many researchers have pointed out that this method often leads to underestimation, because of the excessive flatness. Therefore, for this study, a new time distribution method was developed to analyze only extreme rainfall events-those over the standard of severe rainstorms (that is, more than 30 mm per hour or 80 mm per day)-and that was verified using a rainfall-runoff model and applying it to a real basin.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.7-16
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• 1993

Calibration chamber tests were conducted on open -ended model piles driven into dried siliceous sands with different soil conditions in order to clarify the effect of soil conditions on plug capacity, The model pile used in the test series was devised so that the bearing capacity of an open -ended pile could be measured out into three components , outside shaft resistance. plug resistance and tip resistance. Under several assumption, the value of earth pressure coefficient in the soil plug is calculated. It is gradually reduced with increase in the longitudinal distance from the pile tip. At the bottom of soil plug, it tends to decrease with increase in the penetration depth and relative density, and to increase with the increase of ambient pressure. In comparison of measured and calculated plug capacities using the one -dimensional analysis, we note that API code and one -dimensional analysis combined with P suggested by Randolph et al. and O'Neill et al. result in great underestimation of the plug capacity. Therefore, based on the test results, an empirical equation was suggested to compute the earth pressured coefficient to be used in the calculation of plug capacity using the one -dimensional analysis. and it produces proper plug capacities for all soil conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.57-62
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• 2004

We have proposed an efficient method of word separation in a handwritten legal amount on bank check based on the spatial gaps between the connected components. The previous gap measures all suffer from the inherent problem of underestimation or overestimation that causes a deterioration in separation performance. In order to alleviate such burden, we have developed a modified version of each distance measure. Also, 4 class clustering based method of integrating three different types of distance measures has been proposed to compensate effectively the errors in each measure, whereby further improvement in performance of word separation is expected. Through a series of word separation experiments, we found that the modified distance measures show a better performance with over 2 - 3% of the word separation rate than their corresponding original distance measures. In addition, the proposed combining method based on 4-class clustering achieved further improvement by effectively reducing the errors common to two of three distance measures as well as the individual errors.