• Title/Summary/Keyword: underestimation

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Towards performance-based design under thunderstorm winds: a new method for wind speed evaluation using historical records and Monte Carlo simulations

  • Aboshosha, Haitham;Mara, Thomas G.;Izukawa, Nicole
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.85-102
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    • 2020
  • Accurate load evaluation is essential in any performance-based design. Design wind speeds and associated wind loads are well defined for synoptic boundary layer winds but not for thunderstorms. The method presented in the current study represents a new approach to obtain design wind speeds associated with thunderstorms and their gust fronts using historical data and Monte Carlo simulations. The method consists of the following steps (i) developing a numerical model for thunderstorm downdrafts (i.e. downbursts) to account for storm translation and outflow dissipation, (ii) utilizing the model to characterize previous events and (iii) extrapolating the limited wind speed data to cover life-span of structures. The numerical model relies on a previously generated CFD wind field, which is validated using six documented thunderstorm events. The model suggests that 10 parameters are required to describe the characteristics of an event. The model is then utilized to analyze wind records obtained at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport (KLBB) meteorological station to identify the thunderstorm parameters for this location, obtain their probability distributions, and utilized in the Monte Carlo simulation of thunderstorm gust front events for many thousands of years for the purpose of estimating design wind speeds. The analysis suggests a potential underestimation of design wind speeds when neglecting thunderstorm gust fronts, which is common practice in analyzing historical wind records. When compared to the design wind speed for a 700-year MRI in ASCE 7-10 and ASCE 7-16, the estimated wind speeds from the simulation were 10% and 11.5% higher, respectively.

Study of Stability for Armor Weight of Stand-alone Caisson at Yongsu Wave Power Plant (용수 파력발전소 사례에서 독립 케이슨의 피복석 안정성 연구)

  • Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.478-484
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    • 2019
  • The submarine cable for Yongsu wave power plant was cut in 2014 winter. This study investigated the probability of high-wave occurrence exceeding the 50-year return period and the underestimation of armor unit weight used to protect the cable. The observation data from KMA buoy and the hindcast wave data were reviewed to determine the return period of wave height during the winter. In order to investigate the armor unit weight of cable-protection, we calculated the required weight of armor unit using not only Design Standard for Harbor and Fishery Port, but also the previous researches for the wave with large incident angle. As a result, it appeared that the high wave exceeding the 50-year return period did not occur during the winter of 2014 and the armor unit weight of the cable protection was not sufficient to sustain the obliquely incident wave, which induced the cable protection failure.

An impact of meteorological Initial field and data assimilation on CMAQ ozone prediction in the Seoul Metropolitan Area during June, 2007 (기상 모델의 초기장 및 자료동화 차이에 따른 수도권 지역의 CMAQ 오존 예측 결과 - 2007년 6월 수도권 고농도 오존 사례 연구 -)

  • Lee, Dae-Gyun;Lee, Mi-Hyang;Lee, Yong-Mi;Yoo, Chul;Hong, Sung-Chul;Jang, Kee-Won;Hong, Ji-Hyung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.609-626
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    • 2013
  • Air quality models have been widely used to study and simulate many air quality issues. In the simulation, it is important to raise the accuracy of meteorological predicted data because the results of air quality modeling is deeply connected with meteorological fields. Therefore in this study, we analyzed the effects of meteorological fields on the air quality simulation. This study was designed to evaluate MM5 predictions by using different initial condition data and different observations utilized in the data assimilation. Among meteorological scenarios according to these input data, the results of meteorological simulation using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Final) Operational Global Analysis data were in closer agreement with the observations and resulted in better prediction on ozone concentration. And in Seoul, observations from Regional Meteorological Office for data assimilations of MM5 were suitable to predict ozone concentration. In other areas, data assimilation using both observations from Regional Meteorological Office and Automatical Weather System provided valid method to simulate the trends of meteorological fields and ozone concentrations. However, it is necessary to vertify the accuracy of AWS data in advance because slightly overestimated wind speed used in the data assimilation with AWS data could result in underestimation of high ozone concentrations.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood Estimations in a SUR Tobit Regression Model (SUR 토빗회귀모형에서 베이지안 추정과 최대가능도 추정의 비교)

  • Lee, Seung-Chun;Choi, Byongsu
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.991-1002
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    • 2014
  • Both Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods are efficient for the estimation of regression coefficients of various Tobit regression models (see. e.g. Chib, 1992; Greene, 1990; Lee and Choi, 2013); however, some researchers recognized that the maximum likelihood method tends to underestimate the disturbance variance, which has implications for the estimation of marginal effects and the asymptotic standard error of estimates. The underestimation of the maximum likelihood estimate in a seemingly unrelated Tobit regression model is examined. A Bayesian method based on an objective noninformative prior is shown to provide proper estimates of the disturbance variance as well as other regression parameters

Quality Control of the UHF Wind Profiler Radar (UHF 윈드프로파일러 레이더 자료의 품질 개선)

  • Jo, Won-Gi;Kwon, Byung-Hyuk;Kim, Park-Sa;Kim, Min-Seong;Yoon, Hong-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.277-290
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    • 2018
  • Wind data observed by wind profiler provide wind vectors with the altitudes using PCL1300, wind computation program. As a result of application with parameters set in program currently, it is difficult to compute wind vectors in the upper air over 3 km. This id because a very strict criterion for parameters removes large amounts of data. In this study, therefore, we improve the methods of application by resetting parameters to expand data collection area of wind vectors and reduce underestimation. Although the acquisition rate of the wind vector increased from 72.2% to 92.2%, the RMSE of the wind speed maintained 1.5 m/s - 3.1 m/s, which is less than 15% of the error rate at each altitude.

Optimal Monitoring Intervals and MDA Requirements for Routine Individual Monitoring of Occupational Intakes Based on the ICRP OIR

  • Ha, Wi-Ho;Kwon, Tae-Eun;Jin, Young Woo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.88-94
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    • 2020
  • Background: The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has recently published report series on the occupational intakes of radionuclides (OIR) for internal dosimetry of radiation workers. In this study, the optimized monitoring program including the monitoring interval and the minimum detectable activity (MDA) of major radionuclides was suggested to perform the routine individual monitoring of internal exposure based on the ICRP OIR. Materials and Methods: The derived recording levels and the critical monitoring quantities were reviewed from international standards or guidelines by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), and the European Radiation Dosimetry Group (EURADOS). The OIR data viewer provided by ICRP was used to evaluate the monitoring intervals and the MDA, which are derived from the reference bioassay functions and the dose coefficients. Results and Discussion: The optimal monitoring intervals were determined taking account of two requirement conditions on the potential intake underestimation and the MDA values. The MDA requirement values of the selected radionuclides were calculated based on the committed effective dose from 0.1 mSv to 5 mSv. The optimized routine individual monitoring program was suggested including the optimal monitoring intervals and the MDA requirements. The optimal MDA values were evaluated based on the committed effective dose of 0.1 mSv. However, the MDA can be adjusted considering the practical operation of the routine individual monitoring program in the nuclear facilities. Conclusion: The monitoring intervals and the MDA as crucial factors for the routine monitoring were described to suggest the optimized routine individual monitoring program of the occupational intakes. Further study on the alpha/beta-emitting radionuclides as well as short lived gamma-emitting nuclides will be necessary in the future.

Study of modified Westergaard formula based on dynamic model test on shaking table

  • Wang, Mingming;Yang, Yi;Xiao, Weirong
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.64 no.5
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    • pp.661-670
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    • 2017
  • The dynamic model test of dam-reservoir coupling system for a 203m high gravity dam is performed to investigate effects of reservoir water on dynamic responses of dam during earthquake. The hydrodynamic pressure under condition of full reservoir, natural frequencies and acceleration amplification factors along the dam height under conditions of full and empty reservoir are obtained from the test. The results indicate that the reservoir water have a stronger influence on the dynamic responses of dam. The measured natural frequency of the dam model under full reservoir is 21.7% lower than that of empty reservoir, and the acceleration amplification factor at dam crest under full reservoir is 18% larger than that under empty reservoir. Seismic dynamic analysis of the gravity dams with five different heights is performed with the Fluid-Structure Coupling Model (FSCM). The hydrodynamic pressures from Westergaard formula are overestimated in the lower part of the dam body and underestimated in its upper part to compare with those from the FSCM. The underestimation and overestimation are more significance with the increase of the dam height. The position of the maximum hydrodynamic pressure from the FSCM is raised with the increase of dam height. In view of the above, the Westergaard formula is modified with consideration in the influence of the height of dam, the elasticity of dam on the hydrodynamic pressure. The solutions of modified Westergaard formula are quite coincident with the hydrodynamic pressures in the model test and the previous report.

Analysis of Domestic and Foreign Contributions using DDM in CMAQ during Particulate Matter Episode Period of February 2014 in Seoul (2014년 2월 서울의 고농도 미세먼지 기간 중에 CMAQ-DDM을 이용한 국내외 기여도 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Hee;Choi, Dae-Ryun;Koo, Youn-Seo;Lee, Jae-Bum;Park, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.82-99
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    • 2016
  • This study was carried out to understand the regional contribution of Particulate Matter (PM) emissions from East Asia ($82^{\circ}{\sim}149^{\circ}E$, $18^{\circ}{\sim}53^{\circ}N$) to Seoul during high concentration period in February 2014. The Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 5.0.2 with Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) was used to analyze levels of contributions over Seoul. In order to validate model performance of the CMAQ, predicted PM and its chemical species concentrations were compared to observations in China and Seoul. Model predictions could depict the daily and hourly variations of observed PM. The calculated PM concentrations, however, had a tendency of underestimation. The discrepancies are due to uncertainties of meteorological data, emission inventories and CMAQ model itself. The high PM concentration in Seoul was induced by stationary anticyclone over the West Coast of Korea during 24 to 27 February. The DDM in CMAQ was used to analyze the contributions of emissions from East Asia on Seoul during this PM episode. $PM_{10}$ concentration in Seoul is contributed by 39.77%~53.19% from China industrial and urban region, 15.37%~37.10% from South Korea, and 9.03%~18.05% North Korea. These indicate that $PM_{10}$ concentrations in Seoul during the episode period are dominated by long-range transport from China region as well as domestic sources. It was also found that the largest contribution region in China were Shandong peninsula during the PM event period.

Structural Response of Offshore Plants to Risk-Based Blast Load

  • Heo, YeongAe
    • Architectural research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2013
  • Offshore oil and gas process plants are exposed to hazardous accidents such as explosion and fire, so that the structural components should resist such accidental loads. Given the possibilities of thousands of different scenarios for the occurrence of an accidental hazard, the best way to predict a reasonable size of a specific accidental load would be the employment of a probabilistic approach. Having the fact that a specific procedure for probabilistic accidental hazard analysis has not yet been established especially for explosion and fire hazards, it is widely accepted that engineers usually take simple and conservative figures in assuming uncertainties inherent in the procedure, resulting either in underestimation or more likely in overestimation in the topside structural design for offshore plants. The variation in the results of a probabilistic approach is determined by the assumptions accepted in the procedures of explosion probability computation, explosion analysis, and structural analysis. A design overpressure load for a sample offshore plant is determined according to the proposed probabilistic approach in this study. CFD analysis results using a Flame Acceleration Simulator, FLACS_v9.1, are utilized to create an overpressure hazard curve. Moreover, the negative impulse and frequency contents of a blast wave are considerably influencing structural responses, but those are completely ignored in a widely used triangular form of blast wave. An idealistic blast wave profile deploying both negative and positive pulses is proposed in this study. A topside process module and piperack with blast wall are 3D FE modeled for structural analysis using LS-DYNA. Three different types of blast wave profiles are applied, two of typical triangular forms having different impulse and the proposed load profile. In conclusion, it is found that a typical triangular blast load leads to overestimation in structural design.

Spatial Gap Estimation for Word Separation in Handwritten Legal Amounts on BAnk Check (필기체 수표 금액 문장에서의 단어 분리를 위한 공간적 간격 추정)

  • Kim In-cheol;Kim Kyoung-min
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1096-1101
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    • 2005
  • An efficient method of estimating the spatial gaps between the connected components has been prposed to separatethe individual words from a handwritten legal amount on bank check. Owing to the inherent problem of underestimation or overestimation, the previous gap measures have much difficulty in being applied to the legal amounts that usually include the great shape variability by writer's unconstrained writing style and touching or irregular gaps between words by space limitation. In order to alleviate such burden and improve word separation performance, we have developed a modified version of each distance measure. Through a series of word separation experiments, we found that the modified distance measures show a better performance with over $2-3\%$ of the word separation rate than their corresponding original distance measures.