• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.221-232
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• 2009

The geographical distribution of freeze risk determines the latitudinal and altitudinal limits and the maximum acreage suitable for fruit production. Any changes in its pattern can affect the policy for climate change adaptation in fruit industry. High-definition digital maps for such applications are not available yet due to uncertainty in the combined responses of temperature and dormancy depth under the future climate scenarios. We applied an empirical freeze risk index, which was derived from the combination of the dormancy depth and threshold temperature inducing freeze damage to dormant buds of 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach trees, to the high-definition digital climate maps prepared for the current (1971-2000), the near future (2011-2040) and the far future (2071-2100) climate scenarios. According to the geospatial analysis at a landscape scale, both the safe and risky areas will be expanded in the future and some of the major peach cultivation areas may encounter difficulty in safe overwintering due to weakening cold tolerance resulting from insufficient chilling. Our test of this method for the two counties representing the major peach cultivation areas in South Korea demonstrated that the migration of risky areas could be detected at a sub-grid scale. The method presented in this study can contribute significantly to climate change adaptation planning in agriculture as a decision aids tool.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.72-79
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• 2018

Two planter boxes were monitored during their initial year of operation to be able to assess their stormwater runoff and pollutant reduction capabilities and investigate on the design factors affecting their performance. One of the planter boxes provided 85-100% runoff volume reduction for rainfall less than 15 mm and rainfall intensities lower than 5 mm/hr. This reduced to 50-64% during higher rainfall intensities and depths of up to 50 mm. Suspended solids, organics, nutrients, and heavy metals were satisfactorily removed at a range of 40-95%. The other planter box, however, did not produce outflow in all the events and allowed total capture of stormwater. The uncertainty regarding the fate of the runoff in that case required an investigation of the planter box's actual drainage and underground conditions which was deemed outside the scope of the study. Nonetheless, several design improvements and retrofits were suggested based on the provisions of current design guidelines to ensure that the hydraulic and water quality goals are achieved without potential damage to nearby structures. Moreover, continuous monitoring data is required to provide more accurate design evaluation and can serve as a guide in the construction of similar facilities in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.832-841
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• 2013

In recent years, eutrophication in the Paldang Lake has become one of the major environmental problems in Korea as it may threaten drinking water safety and human health. Thus it is important to understand the phenomena and predict the time and magnitude of algal blooms for applying adequate algal reduction measures. This study performed seasonal water quality assessment and chlorophyll-a prediction using Bayseian simple/multiple linear regression analysis. Bayseian regression analysis could be a useful tool to overcome limitations of conventional regression analysis. Also it can consider uncertainty in prediction by using posterior distribution. Generally, chlorophyll-a of a P2(Paldang Dam 2) site showed high concentration in spring and it was similar to that of P4(Paldang Dam 4) site. For the development of Bayseian model, we performed seasonal correlation. As a result, chlorophyll-a of a P2 site had a high correlation with P5(Paldang Dam 5) site in spring (r = 0.786, p<0.05) and with P4 in winter (r = 0.843, p<0.05). Based on the DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) value, critical explanatory variables of the best fitting Bayesian linear regression model were selected as a $PO_4-P$ (P2), Chlorophyll-a (P5) in spring, $NH_3-N$ (P2), Chlorophyll-a (P4), $NH_3-N$ (P4) in summer, DTP (P2), outflow (P2), TP (P3), TP (P4) fall, COD (P2), Chl-a (P4) and COD (P4) in winter. The results of chlorophyll-a prediction showed relatively high $R^2$ and low RMSE values in summer and winter.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 한국수자원학회 2011년도 학술발표회
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• pp.14-14
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• 2011

Groundwater in the Waikatoregion is a valuable resource for agriculture, water supply, forestry and industries. The 434,000 ha study area comprises the upper Waikato River catchment from the outflow of Lake Taupo (New Zealand's largest lake) through to Lake Karapiro (a man-made hydro lake with high recreational value) (Figure 1). Water quality in the area is naturally high. However, there are indications that this quality is deteriorating as a result of land use intensification and deforestation. Compounding this concern for decision makers is the lag time between land use changes and the realisation of effects on groundwater and surface water quality. It is expected that the effects of land use changes have not yet fully manifested, and additional intensification may take decadesto fully develop, further compounding the deterioration. Consequently, Environment Waikato (EW) have proposed a programme of work to develop a groundwater model to assist managing water quality and appropriate policy development within the catchment. One of the most important and critical decisions of any modelling exercise is the choice of the modelling platform to be used. It must not inhibit future decision making and scenario exploration and needs to allow as accurate representation of reality as feasible. With this in mind, EW requested that two modelling platforms, MODFLOW/MT3DMS and FEFLOW, be assessed for their ability to deliver the long-term modelling objectives for this project. The two platforms were compared alongside various selection criteria including complexity of model set-up and development, computational burden, ease and accuracy of representing surface water-groundwater interactions, precision in predictive scenarios and ease with which the model input and output files could be interrogated. This latter criteria is essential for the thorough assessment of predictive uncertainty with third-party software, such as PEST. This paper will focus on the attributes of each modelling platform and the comparison of the two approaches against the key criteria in the selection process. Primarily due to the ease of handling and developing input files and interrogating output files, MODFLOW/MT3DMS was selected as the preferred platform. Other advantages and disadvantages of the two modelling platforms were somewhat balanced. A preliminary regional groundwater numerical model of the study area was subsequently constructed. The model simulates steady state groundwater and surface water flows using MODFLOW and transient contaminant transport with MT3DMS, focussing on nitrate nitrogen (as a conservative solute). Geological information for this project was provided by GNS Science. Professional peer review was completed by Dr. Vince Bidwell (of Lincoln Environmental).

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.238-238
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• 2015

There are demands for water environmental analysis of discharge processes in paddy fields, however, it is not fully understood in nutrients discharge process for watershed modeling. As hydrological processes both surface and ground water and agricultural water managements are so complex in paddy fields, the development of lowland paddy fields watershed model is more difficult than upland watershed model. In this research, the improvement of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model for a paddy watershed was conducted. First, modification of surface inundated process was developed in improved pot hole option. Those modification was evaluated by monitoring data. Second, the monitoring data in river and drainage channel in lowland paddy fields from 2012 to 2014 were analyzed to understand discharge characteristics. As a case study, Imbanuma basin, Japan, was chosen as typical land and water use in Asian countries. In this basin, lowland paddy fields are irrigated from river water using small pumps that were located in distribution within the watershed. Daily hydrological fluctuation was too complex to estimate. Then, to understand surface and ground water discharge characteristics in irrigation (Apr-Aug) and non-irrigation (Sep-Mar) period, the water and material balance analysis was conducted. The analysis was composed two parts, watershed and river channel blocks. As results of model simulation, output was satisfactory in NSE, but uncertainty was large. It would be coming from discharge process in return water. The river water and ground water in paddy fields were exchanged each other in 5.7% and 10.8% to river discharge in irrigation and non-irrigation periods, respectively. Through this exchange, nutrient loads were exchanged between river and paddy fields components. It suggested that discharge from paddy fields was not only responded to rainfall but dynamically related with river water table. In general, hydrological models is assumed that a discharge process is one way from watershed to river. However, in lowland paddy fields, discharge process is dynamically changed. This function of paddy fields showed that flood was mitigated and temporally held as storage in ground water. Then, it showed that water quality was changed in mitigated function in the water exchange process in lowland paddy fields. In future, it was expected that hydrological models for lowland paddy fields would be developed with this mitigation function.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.747-754
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• 2021

Purpose: Seismic safety evaluation of a curved bridge must be performed since the curved bridges exhibit the complex behavior rather than the straight bridges, due to geometrical characteristics. In order to conduct the probabilistic seismic assessment of the curved bridge, Seismic fragility evaluation was performed using the uncertainty of the steel material properties of a curved bridge girde, in this study. Method: The finite element (FE) model using ABAQUS platform of the curved bridge girder was constructed, and the statistical parameters of steel materials presented in previous studies were used. 100 steel material models were sampled using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. As an input ground motion in this study, seismic fragility evaluation was performed by the normalized scale of the Gyeongju earthquake to 0.2g, 0.5g, 0.8g, 1.2g, and 1.5g. Result: As a result of the seismic fragility evaluation of the curved girder, it was found that there was no failure up to 0.03g corresponding to the limit state of allowable stress design, but the failure was started from 0.11g associated with using limit state design. Conclusion: In this study, seismic fragility evaluation was performed considering steel materials uncertainties. Further it must be considered the seismic fragility of the curved bridge using both the uncertainties of input motions and material properties.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.412-424
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• 2019

In this study, the changes of the streamflow characteristics of the watershed were analysed depending on the infiltration methods of CAT. The study area, Boryeong-dam watershed located in Chungcheongnam-do area, has been suffered from severe drought in recent years and stabilized regarding on the storage rate through efforts such as constructing a channel connecting the upstream of Boryeong-dam from the downstream of the Geum river. In this study, the effects of soil infiltration parameters on the watershed streamflow characteristics were analyzed by the infiltration methods of CAT such as Rainfall Excess, Green&Ampt and Horton. And the parameter calibrations were conducted by SCEUA-P, a global optimization technique module of the PEST, the package for parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis, to compare the yearly variations of soil parameters for infiltration methods of CAT. In addition, the streamflow characteristics were analyzed for three infiltration methods by applying three different scenarios, such as applying calibrated parameters for every years to simulate the model for each years, applying calibrated parameters for the entire period to simulate the model for entire period, and applying the average value of yearly calibrated parameters to simulate the model for entire period.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.491-505
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• 2018

As an alternative to deep geological disposal technology, which is considered as a reference concept, the domestic applicability of deep borehole disposal technology for high level radioactive waste, including spent fuel, has been preliminarily evaluated. Usually, the environment of deep borehole disposal, at a depth of 3 to 5 km, has more stable geological and geo-hydrological conditions. For this purpose, the characteristics of rock distribution in the domestic area were analyzed and drilling and investigation technologies for deep boreholes with large diameter were evaluated. Based on the results of these analyses, design criteria and requirements for the deep borehole disposal system were reviewed, and preliminary reference concept for a deep borehole disposal system, including disposal container and sealing system meeting the criteria and requirements, was developed. Subsequently, various performance assessments, including thermal stability analysis of the system and simulation of the disposal process, were performed in a 3D graphic disposal environment. With these analysis results, the preliminary evaluation of the domestic applicability of the deep borehole disposal system was performed from various points of view. In summary, due to disposal depth and simplicity, the deep borehole disposal system should bring many safety and economic benefits. However, to reduce uncertainty and to obtain the assent of the regulatory authority, an in-situ demonstration of this technology should be carried out. The current results can be used as input to establish a national high-level radioactive waste management policy. In addition, they may be provided as basic information necessary for stakeholders interested in deep borehole disposal technology.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• 제26권7호
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• pp.161-170
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• 2010

For the development of load and resistance factor design, reliability analysis is required to calibrate resistance factors in the framework of reliability theory. The distribution of measured-to-predicted pile resistance ratio was obrained based on only the results of load tests conducted to failure for the assessment of uncertainty regarding pile resistance and used in the conventional reliability analysis. In other words, successful pile load test (piles resisted twice their design loads without failure) results were discarded, and therefore, were not reflected in the reliability analysis. In this paper, a new systematic method based on Bayesian theory is used to update reliability indices of driven steel pipe piles by adding more proof pile load test results, even not conducted to failure, to the prior distribution of pile resistance ratio. Fifty seven static pile load tests performed to failure in Korea were compiled for the construction of prior distribution of pile resistance ratio. The empirical method proposed by Meyerhof is used to calculate the predicted pile resistance. Reliability analyses were performed using the updated distribution of pile resistance ratio. The challenge of this study is that the distribution updates of pile resistance ratio are possible using the load test results even not conducted to failure, and that Bayesian updates are most effective when limited data are available for reliability analysis.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제28권6A호
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• pp.765-778
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• 2008

Performance Profiles are essential to predict the performance variation over time for the bridge management system (BMS) based on risk management. In general, condition profiles based on experts opinion and/or visual inspection records have been used widely because obtaining profiles based on real performance is not easy. However, those condition profiles usually don't give a good consistency to the safety of bridges, causing practical problems for the effective bridge management. The accuracy of performance evaluation is directly related to the accuracy of BMS. The reliability of the evaluation is important to produce the optimal solution for distributing maintenance budget reasonably. However, conventional methods of bridge assessment are not suitable for a more sophisticated decision making procedure. In this study, a method to compute quantitative performance profiles has been proposed to overcome the limitations of those conventional models. In Bridge Management Systems, the main role of performance profiles is to compute and predict the performance of bridges subject to lifetime activities with uncertainty. Therefore, the computation time for obtaining an optimal maintenance scenario is closely related to the efficiency of the performance profile. In this study, the Response Surface Method (RSM) based on independent and important design variables is developed for the rapid computation. Steel box bridges have been investigated because the number of independent design variables can be reduced significantly due to the high dependency between design variables.