• 제목/요약/키워드: uncertainty assessment

검색결과 678건 처리시간 0.023초

LHS기반 신뢰성해석 기법을 이용한 해안구조물의 확률론적 위험도평가 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Coastal Structures using LHS-based Reliability Analysis Method)

  • 허정원;정홍우;안진희;안성욱
    • 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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    • 제19권6호
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2015
  • 이 논문에서는 해안구조물에 대한 실질적이고 효율적인 구조신뢰성평가 기법을 제시하였다. 제안기법은 파랑, 조류 등의 하중관련 변수 그리고 콘크리트의 탄성계수와 압축강도, 지반정수 및 경계조건 등과 같은 저항관련 설계변수의 불확실성을 명확히 고려한 복잡한 해안구조물의 신뢰성을 평가할 수 있다. 라틴 하이퍼큐브 샘플링(LHS), 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션(MCS) 및 유한요소법을 합리적으로 결합한 제안기법에서 LHS기반 MCS는 신뢰성평가에 필요한 샘플링 수를 대폭 줄여주므로 계산노력이 획기적으로 감소된다. 검증예제를 통하여 제안기법이 상대적인 정확도를 보장하며 계산상의 효율성이 우수한 것으로 확인되었다. 또한 실제의 케이슨형식 방파제 구조물을 대상으로 한 수치예제를 통하여 그 적용성과 효율성을 입증하였다. 특히 유한요소법 또는 유한차분법과 같은 알고리즘 형태의 암시적 한계상태함수를 갖는 경우와 비선형해석, 복합재료, 다양한 기하형상 등을 복잡한 구조거동을 고려해야 하는 실제적인 구조물의 신뢰성평가에 적합한 것으로 판단된다.

상관 다기능 저류지 조성의 경제적 편익 평가(II): 레크리에이션용수 공급편익을 중심으로 (Assessment of Economic Value of Sangkwan Multi-Purpose Reservoir (II): Benefits of Recreational Water)

  • 이주석;류문현;유승훈
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제46권10호
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    • pp.997-1004
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    • 2013
  • 물에 대한 기능 중 레크리에이션 기능은 빼놓을 수 없는 중요한 기능중의 하나이다. 그러나 레크리에이션 편익에 대한 정량적 연구는 매우 미흡한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 실험선택법을 적용하여 레크리에이션 편익을 추정하고자 한다. 레크리에이션과 관련된 몇 개의 속성과 가격속성으로 이루어진 여러 개의 대안 중에서 선호하는 한 가지를 응답자로 하여금 선택하게 함으로서 개별 속성에 대한 한계지불의사액(MWTP) 정보를 도출한다. 분석결과 레크리에이션 용수 10,000톤의 추가적인 확보에 대해 각 가구는 연간 3원의 MWTP를 갖는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 레크리에이션 용수의 수질을 1등급 개선시게 되면 각 가구는 연간 645.5원의 MWTP를 갖는 것으로 분석되었다. 아울러 레크리에이션 시설의 추가적인확보에 대해 각 가구는 연간 1,518.6원의 MWTP를 가졌다. 이와 같은 정량적 정보는 다기능 저류지 조성 여부와 관련된 의사결정에서 유용한 정보로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

조경분야 탄소성적표지제도 적용실태 및 대응전략 (Status and Response Strategies of Carbon Labeling in Landscape Architecture)

  • 김정호;윤용한
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제24권6호
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    • pp.709-720
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    • 2015
  • After analyzing the actual acquisition status of carbon labeling by year and by product for the past four years, as well as its certification in the construction-related sectors of greenhouse gas emission, this study attempted to present the problems and coping strategies upon issuing the carbon labeling certification in the landscape architecture. During the period of this analysis, the carbon labelings were acquired by 134 enterprises, 267 workplaces, and 735 products, while the percentage of acquisition was highest in the regular non-durable goods(49%), followed by energy-consuming durable goods(26%), regular production goods (19%), regular durable goods(3%), and service(3%). Furthermore, the acquisition certifications in construction sectors, were highest in the various pipes/panel(8 cases), followed by concrete(6 cases), gypsum board(4 cases), and landscape architecture materials(2 cases). The landscape architecture only had two cases in the acquisition certification for the first time in 2012, which accounted for 0.27% of the entire certification products, due to the uncertainty in the process, the lack of professionalism, and the lack of comprehension. However, the study conducted on the coping strategies for carbon labeling in the landscape architecture revealed the following: (1) regular reporting system management through the division of labor in the head office and factories, (2) the building of objective DB through the adoption of data management programs such as SAP, (3) continuous promotion and vitalization of the incentive system, (4) the adoption of mandatory or preferential application system in landscaping projects, management, and bidding, (5) enhancement of elasticity in deliberation of certification by recruiting experts in the landscape architecture sectors, and (6) provision of incentives for the cooperative firms acquiring the certification and support for their participation.

Operational modal analysis of a long-span suspension bridge under different earthquake events

  • Ni, Yi-Qing;Zhang, Feng-Liang;Xia, Yun-Xia;Au, Siu-Kui
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.859-887
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    • 2015
  • Structural health monitoring (SHM) has gained in popularity in recent years since it can assess the performance and condition of instrumented structures in real time and provide valuable information to the asset's manager and owner. Operational modal analysis plays an important role in SHM and it involves the determination of natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes of a constructed structure based on measured dynamic data. This paper presents the operational modal analysis and seismic response characterization of the Tsing Ma Suspension Bridge of 2,160 m long subjected to different earthquake events. Three kinds of events, i.e., short-distance, middle-distance and long-distance earthquakes are taken into account. A fast Bayesian modal identification method is used to carry out the operational modal analysis. The modal properties of the bridge are identified and compared by use of the field monitoring data acquired before and after the earthquake for each type of the events. Research emphasis is given on identifying the predominant modes of the seismic responses in the deck during short-distance, middle-distance and long-distance earthquakes, respectively, and characterizing the response pattern of various structural portions (deck, towers, main cables, etc.) under different types of earthquakes. Since the bridge is over 2,000 m long, the seismic wave would arrive at the tower/anchorage basements of the two side spans at different time instants. The behaviors of structural dynamic responses on the Tsing Yi side span and on the Ma Wan side span under each type of the earthquake events are compared. The results obtained from this study would be beneficial to the seismic design of future long-span bridges to be built around Hong Kong (e.g., the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge).

Climate Change Scenario Generation and Uncertainty Assessment: Multiple variables and potential hydrological impacts

  • 권현한;박래건;최병규;박세훈
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.268-272
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    • 2010
  • The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

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투수계수의 공간적 변동성을 고려한 층상지반에 대한 확률론적 침투해석 (Probabilistic Seepage Analysis Considering the Spatial Variability of Permeability for Layered Soil)

  • 조성은
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
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    • 제28권12호
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구에서는 수리구조물이 설치된 2층으로 이루어진 포화 기초지반에서의 구속흐름(confined flow)에 대하여 확률론적 침투해석을 수행하였다. 투수계수는 지반의 층상구조에 따라 명확한 변동성을 보일 뿐 아니라 각각의 층 내에서도 공간적인 변동성을 보인다. 따라서 기존의 결정론적 침투해석기법을 층상지반에서의 투수계수의 불확실성과 공간적 변동성을 고려할 수 있도록 확률론적 해석으로 확장하였다. 각 층에 지정된 입력 확률분포함수와 자기상관함수(autocorrelation function)를 따르는 2차원의 랜덤필드를 생성하기 위하여 Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve 전개법을 사용하였다. 제안된 절차의 적용성을 검토하고 수리구조물 하부의 2층 지반을 통한 흐름에 공간적 불균질성이 미치는 영향을 연구하기 위해 생성된 랜덤필드를 이용하여 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. 해석결과는 층상지반에서의 침투거동 평가에서 지반의 층상구조와 지층내에서의 투수계수의 공간적 변동성에 의한 지반에서의 다양한 침투패턴을 확률론적 해석기법을 통하여 효율적으로 고려할 수 있음을 보여주었다.

K-UHPC 교량의 긴장재 부식에 관한 신뢰성 기반 성능 평가 및 예측 (Reliability-Based Performance Assessment and Prediction of Tendon Corrosion in K-UHPC Bridges)

  • 권기현;박성용;조근희;김성태;박종범;김병석
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제31권3호
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2016
  • Tendon corrosion reliability in KICT-ultra high performance concrete (K-UHPC) bridges is assessed and predicted considering uncertainties in flexural bending capacity and corrosion occurrence. In post-tensioning bridge systems, corrosion is a one of most critical failure mechanisms due to strength reduction by it. During the entire service life, those bridges may experience lifetime corrosion deterioration initiated and propagated in tendons which are embedded not only in normal concrete but also in K-UHPC. For this reason, the time-variant corrosion performance has to be assessed. In the absence of in-depth researches associated with K-UHPC tendon corrosion, a reliability-based prediction model is developed to evaluate lifetime corrosion performance of tendon in K-UHPC bridges. In 2015, KICT built a K-UHPC pilot bridge at 168/5~168/6 milestone on Yangon-Mandalay Expressway in Myanmar, by using locally produced tendons which post-tensioned in longitudinal and lateral ways of K-UHPC girders. For an illustrative purpose, this K-UHPC bridge is used to identify the time-variant corrosion performance.

산업용 천연가스 수요관리 프로그램 최적화를 위한 동태적 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구 (A Study on the 'Extended' DSM Programs in Korean LNG Market)

  • 장한수;최기련
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.211-231
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    • 2002
  • This paper summarizes the results of a study that assess how a demand side management (DSM) system addresses key economic and environmental challenges facing in the Korean natural gas sector considering; ${\bullet}$ high discrepancies of seasonal consumption volume and of load factor in unmatured domestic LNG market, ${\bullet}$ unfavorable and volatile international LNG market, imposing with the contestable "take-or-pay" contract terms, ${\bullet}$ low profile of LNG and existence of market barriers against an optimal fuel mix status in the industrial energy sector. A particular focus of this study is to establish an 'extended' DSM system in the unmatured gas market, especially in industry sector, that could play a key role to assure an optimum fuel mix scheme. Under the concept of 'extended' DSM, a system dynamics modeling approach has been introduced to explore the option to maximize economic benefits in terms of the national energy system optimization, entailing different ways of commitments accounting for different DSM measures and time delay scenarios. The study concludes that policy options exist that can reduce inefficiencies in gas industry and end-use system at no net costs to national economy. The most scenarios find that, by the year 2015, it is possible to develop a substantial potential of increased industrial gas end-uses under more reliable and stable load patterns. Assessment of sensitivity analysis suggests that time delay factor, in formulating DSM scenarios, plays a key role to overcome various market barriers in domestic LNG market and provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios 'just in time' (time accurateness), which eventually contribute to establish an optimum fuel mix strategy. The study indicates also the needs of advanced studies based on SD approach to articulate uncertainty in unmatured energy market analysis, including gas.

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분말활성탄을 이용한 극미량 농도 Nitrosomethylamine의 흡착 제거 (Removal of Nitrosomethylamine at Extremely Low Concentration by Powdered Activated Carbon)

  • 이성범;윤여민;최창규;김문일
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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    • pp.413-416
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    • 2008
  • Recently, the results of vital tissue test showed that nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) as a disinfection by-product (DBP), could be regarded as a carcinogen because a tumor was observed in organs. U.S.EPA indicated 0.7 ng/L as exposure concentration of NDMA based on a risk assessment target with a lifetime cancer risk of $10^{-6}$. Several recent studies have shown that UV oxidation could remove NDMA. However, UV oxidation is uneconomical and can reform NDMA after treating. In addition, the treatment mechanism of adsorption has not been founddue to the uncertainty of NDMA pathway. In addtion, NDMA has a radioisotope $^{14}C$-labeled which can be analyzed at low concentration of NDMA by Liquid Scintillation Counter (LSC). This study has investigated NDMA determination using LSC at an extremely low range from 1 to 100 ng/L and NDMA removal by powdered activated carbon (PAC) adsorption. For $^{14}C$-NDMA by LSC, the highest correlation over 99% between count number and NDMA concentrationwas obtained with possibility of $^{14}C$-NDMA concentration up to 1 ng/L. In the presence of PAC ranging from 50 to 10,000 mg/L, $^{14}C$-NDMA was removed from 18% to 97% for Sigma-Aldrich corporation (S-A co.) and from 9% to 93% by PAC for Daejung corporation (Dj co.). Hence it was found that the removal efficiency by PAC adsorption could vary depending on PAC types from different companies. For PAC adsorption capacity of $^{14}C$-NDMA using the Freundlich isotherm, $K_f$ and 1/n of PAC from S-A co. were $2.67\times10^{-3}$ ng/mg and 1.009, while those of PAC from Dj co. were $1.30\times10^{-3}$ ng/mg and 0.994, respectively. Thus, PAC from S-A co. showed twice higher adsorption capacity than Dj co.

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기후변화에 따른 가지야마 공식 월별 보정계수 개선 및 평가 (Assessment and Improvement of Monthly Coefficients of Kajiyama Formular on Climate Change)

  • 서지호;이동준;이관재;김종건;김기성;임경재
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제60권5호
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    • pp.81-93
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    • 2018
  • The Kajiyama formula, which is an empirical formula based on the maximum flood data at Korean watersheds, has been widely used for the design of hydraulic structures and management of watersheds. However, this formula was developed based on meteorological data and flow measured during early 1900s so that it could not consider the recently changed rainfall pattern due to climate changes. Moreover, the formula does not provide the monthly coefficients for 5 months including July and August (flood season), which causes the uncertainty to accurately interpret runoff characteristics at a watershed. Thus, the objective of this study is to enhance the monthly coefficients based on the recent meteorological data and flow data expanding the range of rainfall classification. The simulated runoff using the enhanced monthly coefficients showed better performance compared to that using the original coefficients. In addition, we evaluated the applicability of the enhanced monthly coefficient for future runoff prediction. Based on the results of this study, we found that the Kajiyame formula with the enhanced coefficients could be applied for the future prediction. Hence, the Kajiyama formula with enhanced monthly coefficient can be useful to support the policy and plan related to management of watersheds in Korea.