• Title/Summary/Keyword: typhoon simulation

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Assessment of Extreme Wind Risk for Window Systems in Apartment Buildings Based on Probabilistic Model (확률 모형 기반의 아파트 창호 시스템 강풍 위험도 평가)

  • Ham, Hee Jung;Yun, Woo-Seok;Choi, Seung Hun;Lee, Sungsu;Kim, Ho-Jeong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.625-633
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    • 2015
  • In this study, a coupled probabilistic framework is developed to assess wind risk on apartment buildings by using the convolution of wind hazard and fragility functions. In this framework, typhoon induced extreme wind is estimated by applying the developed Monte Carlo simulation model to the climatological data of typhoons affecting Korean peninsular from 1951 to 2013. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used to assess wind fragility function for 4 different damage states by comparing the probability distributions of the window system's resistance performance and wind load. Wind hazard and fragility functions are modeled by the Weibull and lognormal probability distributions based on simulated wind speeds and failure probabilities. The modeled functions are convoluted to obtain the wind risk for the different damage levels. The developed probabilistic framework clearly shows that wind risk are influenced by various important characteristics of terrain and apartment building such as location of building, exposure category, topographic condition, roof angle, height of building, etc. The risk model presented in this paper can be used as tools to predict economic loss estimation and to establish wind risk mitigation plan for the existing building inventory.

Analysis of Soil Erosion Reduction Ratio with Changes in Soil Reconditioning Amount for Highland Agricultural Crops (고랭지 농업의 작물별 객토량 변화에 따른 토양유실 저감 분석)

  • Heo, Sunggu;Jun, ManSig;Park, Sanghun;Kim, Ki-sung;Kang, SungKeun;Ok, YongSik;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.185-194
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    • 2008
  • There is increased soil erosion potential at highland agricultural crop fields because of its topographic characteristics and site-specific agricultural management practices performed at these areas. The agricultural upland fields are usually located at the sloping areas, resulting in higher soil loss, pesticides, and nutrients in case of torrential rainfall events or typhoon, such as 2002 Rusa and 2003 MaeMi. At the highland agricultural fields, the soil reconditioning have been performed every year to decrease damage by continuous cropping and pests. Also it has been done to increase crop productivity and soil fertility. The increased amounts of soil used for soil reconditioning are increasing over the years, causing significant impacts on water quality at the receiving water bodies. In this study, the field investigation was done to check soil reconditioning status for potato, carrot, and cabbage at the Doam-dam watershed. With these data obtained from the field investigation, the Soil and Water Assesment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the soil loss reduction with environment-friendly and agronomically enough soil reconditioning. The average soil reconditioning depth for potato was 34.3 cm, 48.3 cm for carrot, and 31.2 cm for cabbage at the Doam-dam watershed. These data were used for SWAT model runs. Before the SWAT simulation, the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch, developed by the Kangwon National University, was applied because of proper simulation of soil erosion and sediment yield at the sloping watershed, such as the Doam-dam watershed. With this patch applied, the Coefficient of Determination ($R^2$) value was 0.85 and the Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (EI) was 0.75 for flow calibration. The $R^2$ value was 0.87 and the EI was 0.85 for flow validation. For sediment simulation, the $R^2$ value was 0.91 and the EI was 0.70, indicating the SWAT model predicts the soil erosion processes and sediment yield at the Doam-dam watershed. With the calibrated and validated SWAT for the Doam-dam watershed, the soil erosion reduction was investigated for potato, carrot, and cabbage. For potato, around 19.3 cm of soil were over applied to the agricultural field, causing 146% of more soil erosion rate, approximately 33.3 cm, causing 146% of more soil erosion for carrot, and approximately 16.2 cm, causing 44% of more soil erosion. The results obtained in this study showed that excessive soil reconditioning are performed at the highland agricultural fields, causing severe muddy water issues and water quality degradation at the Doam-water watershed. The results can be used to develop soil reconditioning standard policy for various crops at the highland agricultural fields, without causing problems agronomically and environmentally.

Inundating Disaster Assessment in Coastal Areas Using Urban Flood Model (도시홍수모델을 이용한 해안지역의 침수재해평가)

  • Yoo Hwan-Hee;Kim Weon-Seok;Kim Seong-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.299-309
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    • 2006
  • In recent years, a large natural disasters have occurred due to worldwide abnormal weather and the amount of damage has been increased more resulting from high density population and a large-sized buildings of the urbanized area. In this study. we estimate the flooded area according to rainfall probability intensify and sea level in Woreong dong, Masan occurred flood damages by typhoon Maemi using SWMM, a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model in urban area, and then analyze the damage of flood expected area through connecting with GIS database. In result, we can predict accurately expected area of inundation according to the rainfall intensity and sea level rise through dividing the study area into sub-area and estimating a flooded area and height using SWMM. We provide also the shelter information available for urban planning and flood risk estimation by landuse in expected flood area. Further research for hazard management system construction linked with web or wireless communication technology expects to increase its application.

Sensitivity Analysis of Simulated Precipitation System to the KEOP-2004 Intensive Observation Data (KEOP-2004 집중관측 자료에 대한 강수예측의 민감도 분석)

  • Park, Young-Youn;Park, Chang-Geun;Choi, Young-Jean;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.435-453
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    • 2007
  • KEOP (Korea Enhanced Observing Period)-2004 intensive summer observation was carried out from 20 June to 5 July 2004 over the Southwestern part of the Korean peninsula. In this study, the effects of KEOP-2004 intensive observation data on the simulation of precipitation system are investigated using KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) and PSU/NCAR MM5. Three precipitation cases during the intensive observation are selected for detailed analysis. In addition to the control experiments using the traditional data for its initial and boundary conditions, two sensitivity experiments using KEOP data with and without Jindo radar are performed. Although it is hard to find a clear and consistent improvement in the verification score (threat score), it is found that the KEOP data play a role in improving the position and intensity of the simulated precipitation system. The experiments started at 00 and 12 UTC show more positive effect than those of 06 and 18 UTC. The effect of Jindo radar is dependent on the case. It plays a significant role in the heavy rain cases related to a mesoscale low over Changma front and the landing of a Typhoon. KEOP data produce more strong difference in the 06/18 UTC experiments than in 00/12 UTC, but give more positive effects in 00/12 UTC experiments. One of the possible explanations for this is that : KEOP data could properly correct the atmosphere around them when there are certain amounts of data, while gives excessive effect to the atmospheric field when there are few data. CRA analysis supports this reasoning. According to the CRA (Contiguous Rain Area) analysis, KEOP data in 00/12 UTC experiments improve only the surrounding area, resulting in essentially same precipitation system so the effects remain only in each convective cell rather than the system itself. On the other hand, KEOP data modify the precipitation system itself in 06/18 UTC experiments. Therefore the effects become amplified with time integration.

Analysis of An Outflow Boundary Induced Heavy Rainfall That Occurred in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (수도권에서 유출류 경계(Outflow Boundary)를 따라 발생한 집중호우 분석)

  • Lee, Ji-Won;Min, Ki-Hong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.455-466
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    • 2017
  • In Korea, property and human damages occur annually due to heavy precipitation during the summer. On August 8, 2015, heavy rainfall occurred in the Seoul metropolitan area due to an outflow boundary, and $77mmhr^{-1}$ rainfall was recorded in Gwangju, Gyeonggi Province. In this study, the simulation of the WRF numerical model is performed to understand the cause and characteristics of heavy rainfall using the Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK), potential vorticity (PV), frontogenesis function, and convective available potential energy (CAPE) analyses, etc. Convective cells initiated over the Shandong Peninsula and located on the downwind side of an upper level trough. Large amounts of water vapor were supplied to the Shandong Peninsula along the southwestern edge of a high pressure system, and from the remnants of typhoon Soudelor. The mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed through CISK process and moved over to the Yellow Sea. The outflow boundary from the MCS progressed east and pushed cold pool eastward. The warm and humid air over the Korean Peninsula further enhanced convective development. As a result, a new MCS developed rapidly over land. Because of the latent heat release due to convection and precipitation, strong potential vorticity was generated in the lower atmosphere. The rapid development of MCS and the heavy rainfall occurred in an area where the CAPE value was greater than $1300Jkg^{-1}$ and the fronto-genesis function value of 1.5 or greater coincided. The analysis result shows that the MCS driven by an outflow boundary can be identified using CISK process.

Establishment and Standardization of Evaluation Procedure for Urban Flooding Analysis Model Using Available Inundation Data (가용 침수 자료를 활용한 도심지 침수 해석 모형의 평가 절차 수립 및 표준화)

  • Shin, Eun Taek;Jang, Dong Min;Park, Sung Won;Eum, Tae Soo;Song, Chang Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.100-110
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the frequency of typhoon and torrential rain due to climate change is increasing. In addition, the upsurge in the complexity of urban sewer network and impervious surfaces area aggravates the inland flooding damage. In response to these worsening situations, the central and local governments are conducting R&D tasks related to predict and mitigate the flood risk. Researches on the analysis of inundation in urban areas have been implemented through various ways, and the common features were to evaluate the accuracy and justification of the model by comparing the model results with the actual inundation data. However, the evaluation procesure using available urban flooding data are not consistent, and if there are no quantitative urban inundation data, verification has to be performed by using press releases, public complaints, or photos of inundation occurring through 'CCTV'. Because theses materials are not quantitative, there is a problem of low reliability. Therefore, this study intends to develop a comparative analysis procedure on the quantitative degree and applicability of the verifiable inundation data, and a systematic framework for the performance assessment of urban flood analysis model was proposed. This would contribute to the standardization of the evaluation and verification procedure for urban flooding modelling.

Development of a Web Service based GIS-Enabled Storm-surge Visualization System (웹 서비스 기반 GIS 연동 폭풍.해일 시각화 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Ah;Park, Jin-Ah;Park, K.S.;Kwon, Jae-Il
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.841-849
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    • 2008
  • Natural disaster such as inundation due to the typhoon induced storm-surge has inflicted severe losses on the coastal area. The problem of global warming and sea surface rising has issued and thus influences the increase of frequency and potential power of storm-surge. What we can do is to make intelligent effort to predict and prevent the losses through the early warning and prevention activity from the accurate prediction and forecasting about the time-varying storm-surge height and its arriving time resulted from the numerical simulation with sea observations. In this paper, we developed the web service based GIS-Enabled storm-surge visualization system to predict and prevent the storm-surge disasters. Moreover. for more accurate topography around coastal area and fine-grid storm-surge numerical model, we have accomplished GIS-based coastal mapping through LiDAR measurement.

Numerical Study on the Change of PM10 Profile by Asian dust

  • Cho, Chang-Bum;Kim, Yoo-Keun;Lee, Yong-Seob;Bang, So-Young
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.533-539
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    • 2007
  • The research was conducted to simulate and interpret the change of $PM_{10}$ profile by Asian dust using the CALPUFF modeling system for the period April 6 through 18, 2001. The results, which are represented a daily variation of $PM_{10}$ concentration before and after Asian dust, was located between a minimum concentration of $50{\mu}g/m^3$ and a maximum concentration of $100{\mu}g/m^3$, Most concentration peaks in the $PM_{10}$ profile were shown within a level below 500 m and had a pattern that rapidly increased up the peak and decreased after the peak to 1000 m. Even though the shapes of the vertical profile during Asian dust days were similar to non-Asian dust days, no rapid change vertically was observed. In particular, the vertical profile on 1200 LST and 1800 LST was noticeably shifted to the higher concentrations, which means $PM_{10}$ in the atmosphere was changed into a vertically and horizontally heterogeneous form under the Asian dust event. Finally, it is con-firmed that the simulation result from CALPUFF might schematically sketched atmospheric $PM_{10}$ profiles and their change by Asian dust throughout the comparison with profiles of aerosol extinction coefficients, which were acquired from Lidar measurement at KGAWO.

Numerical Case Study of Heavy Rainfall Occurred in the Central Korean Peninsula on July 26-28, 1996

  • Kim, Young-Ah;Oh, Jai-Ho
    • International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Korean Journal of Geophysical Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.15-29
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    • 1998
  • The numerical simulation of heavy precipitation event occurred in the central Korean Peninsula on July 26-28, 1996 was performed using the fine mesh model. ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) developed by the CAPS (Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms). Usually, the heavy rainfalls occurred at late July in the Korean Peninsula were difficult to predict, and showed very strong rainfall intensity. As results, they caused a great loss of life and property. As it usual, this case was unsuccessful to predict the location of rain band and the precipitation intensity with the coarse-mesh model. The same case was, however, simulated well with fine-mesh storm-scale model, ARPS. Moisture band at 850 hPa appeared along the Changma Front in the area of China through central Korea passed Yellow Sea. Also the low-level jet at 700 hPa existed in the Yellow Sea through central Korea and they together offered favorable condition to induce heavy rainfall in that area. The convective activities developed to a meso-scale convective system were observed at near the Yangtze River and moved to the central Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, the intrusion of warm and moist air, origninated from typhoon, into the Asia Continent might result in heavy rainfall formation through redistribution of moisture and heat. In the vertical circulation, the heavy rainfall was formed between the upper- and low-level jets, especially, the entrance region of the upper-level jet above the exit the region of the low-level jet. The low level convergence, the upper level divergence and the strong vertical wind were organized to the very north of the low level jet and concentrated on tens to hundreds km horizontal distance. These result represent the upper- and low-level jets are one of the most important reasons on the formation of heavy precipitation.

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The Effect of the Typoon Course on the Shallow Water Wave (천해역 파랑발달에 대한 태풍경로의 영향)

  • Lee, Kyung-Seon;Kim, Jung-Tae;Ryu, Cheong-Ro
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.473-476
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    • 2006
  • 천해역의 파랑발달에 대한 태풍경로의 영향력을 분석 하였다. 우리나라 남동해안에 주로 피해를 초래할 것으로 판단되는 태풍의 경로를 '남해안 상륙 후 내륙 통과'와 '대한해협통과'로 분류하고 각 경로에 따른 태풍규모와 파랑발달을 1956년 부터 2004년까지의 기상자료를 바탕으로 검토하였다. 태풍 경로의 영향력 분석은 천해역 파랑발달의 주요외력이 지형조건에 의해 결정되므로(즉, 폐쇄해역은 태풍의 바람장이 주요외력이며, 개방해역은 심해 전달파랑과 바람장의 영향을 동시에 받는다), 개방해역과 폐쇄해역의 경우로 나누어 수치모형실험을 통해 수행하였다. 실험조건은 태풍 "매미"의 강도와 특성 값을 기준으로 하였으며, 대상해역은 부산신항 인근해역과 원전항 인근해역을 개방형과 폐쇄형 해역으로 대별하여 실험을 수행하였다. 자료의 분석결과 최근 이상기후현상으로 태풍의 강도가 커지고 있음을 뒷받침 하는 근거는 찾아보기 힘들었으며, 2000년대 이후로 남해안에 상륙하는 경로'1'이 대한해협을 통과하는 경로(경로'2')보다 그 내습빈도가 커지고 있음을 볼 수 있었다. 태풍의 경로와 풍향이 같은 방향인 경로'1'일 때 에너지가 집중되어 태풍중심기압과 풍속과 파고의 증가가 함께 일어난다. 그러나 태풍의 경로와 풍속의 방향이 일치하지 않는 경로'2'의 경우는 에너지가 분산되므로 태풍중심기압과 풍속은 함께 증가하나 파랑에너지는 함께 발달하지 않는 것으로 보였다. 내습한 태풍의 강도를 경로별로 비교한 결과, 경로'1'이 경로'2'보다 큰 강도를 가지고 연악역에 영향을 미치는 것으로 판단되었다.

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