• Title/Summary/Keyword: trend surface analysis (TSA)

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Application of trend surface analysis(TSA) to a precipitation modification study over urban areas in the southern United States of America (미국 남부지역의 도시화로 인한 강수변화 연구에 대한 경향면 분석의 적용)

  • Choi, Young Eun;Henderson, Keith G.
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.333-351
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    • 1995
  • Trend surface analysis (TSA) was selected to estimate a natural trend in precipitation and to examine urban influences on precipitation over five urban areas (Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio, TX; New Orleans, LA; and Memphis, TN) in the southern United States. TSA was applied to monthly, seasonal and annual normal precipitation data for the period of 1961-1990. Winter and spring have more trends than summer and fall and the period of November through March have more marked trends than the period of April through October in all study areas except the Houston area. Residual maps for Houston, Dallas and San Antonio have positive residuals in the city and downwind during summer indicating that urban effects on precipitation enhancement in these areas do exist during these seasons after eliminating the natural precipitation variations. Summer residual maps for New Orleans and Memphis have no distinct precipitation increases due to urban effects. The June residual map in New Orleans and the July residual map in Memphis have positive values in the city, but the magnitude of values is smaller than other cities.

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Synoptic Analysis of Heavy Rainstorms over Urban Areas in the Southern United States (미국 남부지방 도시호우의 종관적 분석)

  • Youngeun Choi
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.395-409
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this paper is to determine the atmospheric conditions in whih urban areas affect the precipitation processes and to evaluate whether certain weather types show more apparent urban effect on precipitation modification over five cities in the southem United States. Each heavy rainstorm is classified into one of three synoptic weather types (frontal storm, airmass storm or tropical disturbance storm). Heavy rainstorm day is defined as day producing rainfall totals that equal o exceed 2 inches (50.08 mm). Houston, Dallass and San Antonio show possible urban effects on rainfall totals and frequencies of heavy rainstorms by airmass storm type while New Orleans and Memphis do not reveal any distinct precipitation enhancements through the synoptic analysis. The results of TSA (Trend Surface Analysis) show that frontal and tropical disturbance storm types have stronger climatic gradients than airmass types and the patterns of rainfall totals have stronger trends than those of rainfall frequencies for the five cities. The results suggest that airmass type events may well reveal possible precipitation enhancements due to urban effects since they are less influenced by a strong climate gradient and they provide favorable conditions for development of urban heat islands. Residual analysis confirms that rainfall totals and frequencies of heavy rainstorms by airmass storm type have positive residuals over the city or the major effect area.

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