• Title/Summary/Keyword: trend analyses

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Groundwater Level Trend Analysis for Long-term Prediction Basedon Gaussian Process Regression (가우시안 프로세스 회귀분석을 이용한 지하수위 추세분석 및 장기예측 연구)

  • Kim, Hyo Geon;Park, Eungyu;Jeong, Jina;Han, Weon Shik;Kim, Kue-Young
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.30-41
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    • 2016
  • The amount of groundwater related data is drastically increasing domestically from various sources since 2000. To justify the more expansive continuation of the data acquisition and to derive valuable implications from the data, continued employments of sophisticated and state-of-the-arts statistical tools in the analyses and predictions are important issue. In the present study, we employed a well established machine learning technique of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model in the trend analyses of groundwater level for the long-term change. The major benefit of GPR model is that the model provide not only the future predictions but also the associated uncertainty. In the study, the long-term predictions of groundwater level from the stations of National Groundwater Monitoring Network located within Han River Basin were exemplified as prediction cases based on the GPR model. In addition, a few types of groundwater change patterns were delineated (i.e., increasing, decreasing, and no trend) on the basis of the statistics acquired from GPR analyses. From the study, it was found that the majority of the monitoring stations has decreasing trend while small portion shows increasing or no trend. To further analyze the causes of the trend, the corresponding precipitation data were jointly analyzed by the same method (i.e., GPR). Based on the analyses, the major cause of decreasing trend of groundwater level is attributed to reduction of precipitation rate whereas a few of the stations show weak relationship between the pattern of groundwater level changes and precipitation.

Long-Term Trend Analyses of Water Qualities in Mangyung Watershed (비모수 통계기법을 이용한 만경강 유역의 장기간 수질 경향 분석)

  • Lee, Hye Won;Park, Seoksoon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.480-487
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    • 2008
  • Spatial and temporal analyses of water qualities were performed for 11 monitoring stations located in Mangyung watershed in order to analyze the trends of monthly water quality data of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) measured from 1995 to 2004. The long-term trends were analyzed utilizing Seasonal Mann-Kendall test, LOWESS and three-dimensional graphs were constructed with respect to distance and time. The graph can visualize spatial and temporal trend of the long-term water quality in a large river system. The results of trend analysis indicated that water quality of BOD and TN showed the downward trend. This quantitive and quantitative analysis is the useful tool to analyze and display the long-term trend of water quality in a large river system.

Parametric and Non-parametric Trend Analyses for Water Levels of Groundwater Monitoring Wells in Jeju Island (제주도 지하수 관측망 수위에 대한 모수 및 비모수 변동경향 분석)

  • Choi, Hyun-Mi;Lee, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2009
  • Water levels in groundwater monitoring wells of Jeju Island were analyzed using parametric and non-parametric trend analyses. Number of used monitoring wells in the analysis are 94 among totally 106 monitoring wells and the monitoring period is greater than single year, from 2001 to 2009. For the trend analysis, both parametric (linear regression) and nonparametric (Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's trend test) methods were adopted. Results of the linear regression analysis on daily basis indicated that about 58.5% of the monitoring wells showed a decreasing trend, and analysis using monthly median indicated that about 79.8% showed a decreasing trend. The Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's trend test with monthly median values in confidence levels of 95% and 99% showed the same analysis results. In confidence level of 95%, 32% were decreased, 3% were increased and the remains showed no trend. However, in confidence level of 99%, 16% were decreased, 2% were increased and the remains showed no trend. The largest decline rates of water levels were detected mainly at the coast of the northwestern and southwestern parts, which is expected to closely related to the increased pumping in the urban area and tourist resort.

Long-Term Trend Analyses of Water Qualities in Nakdong River Based on Non-Parametric Statistical Methods (비모수 통계기법을 이용한 낙동강 수계의 수질 장기 경향 분석)

  • Kim, Joo-Hwa;Park, Seok-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2004
  • The long-tenn trend analyses of water qualities were performed for 49 monitoring stations located in Nakdong River. Water quality parameters used in this study are the monthly data of BOD(Biological Oxygen Demand), TN(Total Nitrogen) and TP(Total Phosphorus) measured from 1990 to 1999. The long-tenn trends were analyzed by Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test and Locally WEighted Scatter plot Smoother(LOWESS). Nakdong river was divided into four subbasins, including upstream watershed, midstream watershed, western downstream watershed and eastern downstream watershed. The results of Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test indicated that there would be no trends of BOD in upstream watershed, western and eastern downstream watershed. Trends of BOD were downward in midstream watershed. For TN and TP, there were upward trends in all of watersheds. But LOWESS curves suggested that BOD, TN and TP concentrations generally increased between 1990 and 1996, then resumed decreasing.

Petrology and petrochemistry of the so called "Ganghwa syenitic rock" in southeastern part of Ganghwa Island (강화도(江華島) 동남부(東南部)에 분포(分布)하는 소위(所謂) 강화섬장암질암(江華閃長岩質岩)에 대(對)하여)

  • Kim, Yong-Jun;OH, Mihn-Soo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 1978
  • The study focused on the petrology and petrochemistry of the so called "Ganghwa syenitic rocks" which intruded into metasediment of basement in southeastern part of Ganghwa Island. The geologic sequence of the mapped area was shown in table 1, 10 model analyses and 7 chemical analyses on the rock samples taken from the Ganghwa syenitic rocks and Manisan granite have been used to discuss the nomenclature of the rocks and petrological relationship between rock types. The petrograpical and petrochemical features based on, the analyses are as follows: 1) Ganghwa syenitic rocks consist of Ganghwa alkali syenite and Ganghwa diorite porphyry which based on the classification of the subcommision on systematics of igneous of IGUS. Ganghwa diorite porphyry which occured as dike forms are intruded into Ganghwa alkali syenite. The rock forming minerals of Ganghwa alkali syenite are composed of perthite, plagioclase, quartz, hornblend and chlorite in major, and zircon, apatite, sericite and magnetite in minor. Ganghwa diorite porphyries consist of plagioclase, biotite, hornblend, orthoclase and chlorite, with, porphyritic texture. 2) In silica-oxides variation (Fig. 2) and AMF diagram (Fig_ 3), the Ganghwa alkali syenite is similar to the trend of Daly's average basalt-andesite-dacite-rhyolite than Skaergaard which shows the trend of the fractional crystallization of magma, and equivalent to the alkali rock series by Peacock. 3) The general trend of data points shift to plagioclase, and are superimposed on the alkali rich terminal part of the granodiorite province of SW Finland in normative Q-Kf-Pl(Fig. 4) and Or-Ab-An diagram respectively. The above-mentioned evidences suggested that the Ganghwa syenitic rocks are the differential products resulted by assimilation of intermediated magma and metasedment rock under relatively rapid cooling condition.

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Configuration and Performance Analyses for Conceptual Design of Small and Mid-Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (중소형 무인항공기 개념설계를 위한 형상 및 성능 분석)

  • Jeon, Byung-Il;Lee, Narae;Chang, Young-Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.478-487
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    • 2014
  • The simplified performance analysis and initial configuration design are required for the successful development of UAV during the conceptual design, in which empirical formulas and trend equations are utilized for the UAV performance analysis. In the conceptual design phase various UAV configurations may be considered, however, it is very inefficient and unnecessary to consider all configurations for the conceptual design. In this study, the database for the fixed wing UAVs whose MTOW is between 50kg and 1,500kg was also constructed for the selection of configuration frequently used. The parametric analyses were performed for major performance parameters, and trend equations were developed through regression analyses for these individual performance parameters.

Petrology and Petrochemistry of the Yangpyeong Igneous Complex (양평화성(楊平火成) 복합체(複合體)에 대(對)한 암석학적(岩石學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Dai Sung;Kim, Yong Jun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.123-152
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    • 1974
  • The study focused to the so called "Yangpyeong Igneous Complex" which intruded into the Gyeong Gi gneiss complex of Pre-cambrian basement of Yangpyeong area. The geologic sequence of the mapped area was shown in table 1. In laboratory work, 31 modal analyses and 7 chemical analyses on the rock samples taken from the igneous complex have been made to discuss the nomenclature of the rocks and the petrological relationship between rock types. The petrographical and petrochemical features based on the analyses are as follow; 1) The classification of this rocks based on the systematics of igneous rocks of IUGS showed that Yangpyeong Igneous complex consist of hornblende gabbro, diorite and porphyritic monzonite. The major rock forming minerals in hornblende gabbro are hornblende and plagiodase ($An_{46{\sim}55}$), in diorite, hornblende, biotite and plagioclase ($An_{23{\sim}33}$) and in porphyritic monzonite, K-feldspar, plagioclase ($An_{21{\sim}35}$), hornblende and biotite. Hornblende gabbro and diorite show coarse to medium grained hypidiomorphic granular texture and porphyritic monzonite was named by the characteristically porphyritic texture of K-feldspar phenocrysts. 2) Silica-oxides variation diagram (Fig.4) illustrate that the igneous complex is similar ttl that of Daly's average basalt-andesite-dacite-rhyolite and equivalent to the calc-alkalic rock series of Peacock's rock series. In AMF diagram (Fig. 5), the trend of the igneous complex is nearly pararell to that of the Skaergaard intrusion which shows the trend of the fractional crystalization of magma. 3) In normative Or-Ab-An diagram (Fig. 6) the general trend of the data points from gabbro to porphyritic monzonite of the igneous complex directs to a point of Or/Ab=1:1 on the side of Or-Ab. The field and laboratory evidences suggested that the Yangpyeong igneous complex was thought to be a series of comagmatic differential products.

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Applying Bootstrap to Time Series Data Having Trend (추세 시계열 자료의 부트스트랩 적용)

  • Park, Jinsoo;Kim, Yun Bae;Song, Kiburm
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2013
  • In the simulation output analysis, bootstrap method is an applicable resampling technique to insufficient data which are not significant statistically. The moving block bootstrap, the stationary bootstrap, and the threshold bootstrap are typical bootstrap methods to be used for autocorrelated time series data. They are nonparametric methods for stationary time series data, which correctly describe the original data. In the simulation output analysis, however, we may not use them because of the non-stationarity in the data set caused by the trend such as increasing or decreasing. In these cases, we can get rid of the trend by differencing the data, which guarantees the stationarity. We can get the bootstrapped data from the differenced stationary data. Taking a reverse transform to the bootstrapped data, finally, we get the pseudo-samples for the original data. In this paper, we introduce the applicability of bootstrap methods to the time series data having trend, and then verify it through the statistical analyses.

Temporal Analysis of Trends in Dissolved Organic Matter in Han River Water

  • Lee, Hye-Won;Choi, Jung-Hyun
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.256-260
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    • 2009
  • This study used the extensive monitoring datasets of the Korea Ministry of Environment to examine trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Han River raw water. To estimate the organic contents of water, we adopted allied parameters such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) as substitutes for DOC. Spatial and temporal analyses were performed on monthly BOD and COD data from 36 monitoring stations (14 for Main Han River, 7 for North Han River and 15 for South Han River) measured from 1989 to 2007. The results of trend analysis indicated that, on the whole, water quality according to BOD showed a downward trend at more than 67% of monitoring stations (9 for Main Han River, 6 for North Han River and 9 for South Han River). However, the water quality of COD showed an upward trend at more than 78% of monitoring stations (8 for Main Han River, 7 for North Han River and 13 for South Han River). The upward trend of COD contrary to the BOD trend indicates that there has been an increase in recalcitrant organic matter in Han River water that is not detectable by means of BOD.