• 제목/요약/키워드: trend analyses

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가우시안 프로세스 회귀분석을 이용한 지하수위 추세분석 및 장기예측 연구 (Groundwater Level Trend Analysis for Long-term Prediction Basedon Gaussian Process Regression)

  • 김효건;박은규;정진아;한원식;김구영
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.30-41
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    • 2016
  • The amount of groundwater related data is drastically increasing domestically from various sources since 2000. To justify the more expansive continuation of the data acquisition and to derive valuable implications from the data, continued employments of sophisticated and state-of-the-arts statistical tools in the analyses and predictions are important issue. In the present study, we employed a well established machine learning technique of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model in the trend analyses of groundwater level for the long-term change. The major benefit of GPR model is that the model provide not only the future predictions but also the associated uncertainty. In the study, the long-term predictions of groundwater level from the stations of National Groundwater Monitoring Network located within Han River Basin were exemplified as prediction cases based on the GPR model. In addition, a few types of groundwater change patterns were delineated (i.e., increasing, decreasing, and no trend) on the basis of the statistics acquired from GPR analyses. From the study, it was found that the majority of the monitoring stations has decreasing trend while small portion shows increasing or no trend. To further analyze the causes of the trend, the corresponding precipitation data were jointly analyzed by the same method (i.e., GPR). Based on the analyses, the major cause of decreasing trend of groundwater level is attributed to reduction of precipitation rate whereas a few of the stations show weak relationship between the pattern of groundwater level changes and precipitation.

비모수 통계기법을 이용한 만경강 유역의 장기간 수질 경향 분석 (Long-Term Trend Analyses of Water Qualities in Mangyung Watershed)

  • 이혜원;박석순
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.480-487
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    • 2008
  • Spatial and temporal analyses of water qualities were performed for 11 monitoring stations located in Mangyung watershed in order to analyze the trends of monthly water quality data of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) measured from 1995 to 2004. The long-term trends were analyzed utilizing Seasonal Mann-Kendall test, LOWESS and three-dimensional graphs were constructed with respect to distance and time. The graph can visualize spatial and temporal trend of the long-term water quality in a large river system. The results of trend analysis indicated that water quality of BOD and TN showed the downward trend. This quantitive and quantitative analysis is the useful tool to analyze and display the long-term trend of water quality in a large river system.

제주도 지하수 관측망 수위에 대한 모수 및 비모수 변동경향 분석 (Parametric and Non-parametric Trend Analyses for Water Levels of Groundwater Monitoring Wells in Jeju Island)

  • 최현미;이진용
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2009
  • 제주도 지하수관측망의 지하수위 측정 자료에 대하여 모수 및 비모수 경향분석을 수행하였다. 분석대상은 2001년부터 1년 이상 관측된 관측정으로 총 106개 관측정 중 94개가 이에 해당된다. 모수분석은 일평균 및 월중앙값을 이용한 선형회귀분석을 실시하였으며 비모수분석은 월중앙값에 대해 Mann-Kendall trend test와 Sen's trend test를 적용하였다. 선형회귀분석 결과 일평균값에 대하여 58.5%가 감소경향을 나타났으며 월중앙간에 대해서는 79.8%가 감소하는 경향을 보였다. Mann-Kendall trend test와 Sen's trend test를 신뢰수준 95%와 99%로 실시한 결과 두 분석 모두 일치하는 결과를 보였다. 95% 신뢰수준에서는 32%가 감소경향을 보였으며 3%가 증가경향을 나타냈고, 나머지 65%는 경향성이 나타나지 않았다. 또 99%신뢰수준에서는 16%가 감소경향을 보였으며 2%가 증가경향을 나타냈고 그리고 나머지 82%에서는 경향성이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 수위하강이 우세하게 나타난 지역은 제주도 북서부 및 남서부의 해안지역으로 도시 및 관광지에서의 다량의 지하수 양수와 관련 있는 것으로 사료된다.

비모수 통계기법을 이용한 낙동강 수계의 수질 장기 경향 분석 (Long-Term Trend Analyses of Water Qualities in Nakdong River Based on Non-Parametric Statistical Methods)

  • 김주화;박석순
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2004
  • The long-tenn trend analyses of water qualities were performed for 49 monitoring stations located in Nakdong River. Water quality parameters used in this study are the monthly data of BOD(Biological Oxygen Demand), TN(Total Nitrogen) and TP(Total Phosphorus) measured from 1990 to 1999. The long-tenn trends were analyzed by Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test and Locally WEighted Scatter plot Smoother(LOWESS). Nakdong river was divided into four subbasins, including upstream watershed, midstream watershed, western downstream watershed and eastern downstream watershed. The results of Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test indicated that there would be no trends of BOD in upstream watershed, western and eastern downstream watershed. Trends of BOD were downward in midstream watershed. For TN and TP, there were upward trends in all of watersheds. But LOWESS curves suggested that BOD, TN and TP concentrations generally increased between 1990 and 1996, then resumed decreasing.

강화도(江華島) 동남부(東南部)에 분포(分布)하는 소위(所謂) 강화섬장암질암(江華閃長岩質岩)에 대(對)하여 (Petrology and petrochemistry of the so called "Ganghwa syenitic rock" in southeastern part of Ganghwa Island)

  • 김용준;오민수
    • 자원환경지질
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 1978
  • The study focused on the petrology and petrochemistry of the so called "Ganghwa syenitic rocks" which intruded into metasediment of basement in southeastern part of Ganghwa Island. The geologic sequence of the mapped area was shown in table 1, 10 model analyses and 7 chemical analyses on the rock samples taken from the Ganghwa syenitic rocks and Manisan granite have been used to discuss the nomenclature of the rocks and petrological relationship between rock types. The petrograpical and petrochemical features based on, the analyses are as follows: 1) Ganghwa syenitic rocks consist of Ganghwa alkali syenite and Ganghwa diorite porphyry which based on the classification of the subcommision on systematics of igneous of IGUS. Ganghwa diorite porphyry which occured as dike forms are intruded into Ganghwa alkali syenite. The rock forming minerals of Ganghwa alkali syenite are composed of perthite, plagioclase, quartz, hornblend and chlorite in major, and zircon, apatite, sericite and magnetite in minor. Ganghwa diorite porphyries consist of plagioclase, biotite, hornblend, orthoclase and chlorite, with, porphyritic texture. 2) In silica-oxides variation (Fig. 2) and AMF diagram (Fig_ 3), the Ganghwa alkali syenite is similar to the trend of Daly's average basalt-andesite-dacite-rhyolite than Skaergaard which shows the trend of the fractional crystallization of magma, and equivalent to the alkali rock series by Peacock. 3) The general trend of data points shift to plagioclase, and are superimposed on the alkali rich terminal part of the granodiorite province of SW Finland in normative Q-Kf-Pl(Fig. 4) and Or-Ab-An diagram respectively. The above-mentioned evidences suggested that the Ganghwa syenitic rocks are the differential products resulted by assimilation of intermediated magma and metasedment rock under relatively rapid cooling condition.

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중소형 무인항공기 개념설계를 위한 형상 및 성능 분석 (Configuration and Performance Analyses for Conceptual Design of Small and Mid-Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)

  • 전병일;이나래;장영근
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제42권6호
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    • pp.478-487
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    • 2014
  • 개념설계는 복합시스템인 무인기의 성공적인 개발을 위해 가장 중요한 단계로써 간단한 성능해석과 형상설계가 수행된다. 개념설계 단계에서의 성능해석은 복잡한 해석도구를 사용하기 보다는 주로 경험식이나 통계적 데이터를 이용한 추세방정식을 사용한다. 무인기의 형상은 매우 다양하여 개념설계 단계에서 이러한 모든 항공기 형상을 고려하기에는 어려움이 있다. 본 연구에서는 무인기 개념설계를 위해 주요 성능변수에 대한 추세방정식을 도출하였고, 자주 사용되는 형상 선정을 위해 최대이륙중량 50-1,500kg 급의 중소형 무인기에 대한 데이터베이스를 구축하였다. 또한 주요 성능변수들에 대한 파라미터 분석을 수행하였으며, 이들 성능변수에 대한 상관도 분석결과에 따라 높은 상관도를 보이는 최대이륙중량과 날개폭을 기준으로 각 성능요소별 회귀분석을 수행하여 추세방정식을 도출하였다.

양평화성(楊平火成) 복합체(複合體)에 대(對)한 암석학적(岩石學的) 연구(硏究) (Petrology and Petrochemistry of the Yangpyeong Igneous Complex)

  • 이대성;김용준
    • 자원환경지질
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.123-152
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    • 1974
  • The study focused to the so called "Yangpyeong Igneous Complex" which intruded into the Gyeong Gi gneiss complex of Pre-cambrian basement of Yangpyeong area. The geologic sequence of the mapped area was shown in table 1. In laboratory work, 31 modal analyses and 7 chemical analyses on the rock samples taken from the igneous complex have been made to discuss the nomenclature of the rocks and the petrological relationship between rock types. The petrographical and petrochemical features based on the analyses are as follow; 1) The classification of this rocks based on the systematics of igneous rocks of IUGS showed that Yangpyeong Igneous complex consist of hornblende gabbro, diorite and porphyritic monzonite. The major rock forming minerals in hornblende gabbro are hornblende and plagiodase ($An_{46{\sim}55}$), in diorite, hornblende, biotite and plagioclase ($An_{23{\sim}33}$) and in porphyritic monzonite, K-feldspar, plagioclase ($An_{21{\sim}35}$), hornblende and biotite. Hornblende gabbro and diorite show coarse to medium grained hypidiomorphic granular texture and porphyritic monzonite was named by the characteristically porphyritic texture of K-feldspar phenocrysts. 2) Silica-oxides variation diagram (Fig.4) illustrate that the igneous complex is similar ttl that of Daly's average basalt-andesite-dacite-rhyolite and equivalent to the calc-alkalic rock series of Peacock's rock series. In AMF diagram (Fig. 5), the trend of the igneous complex is nearly pararell to that of the Skaergaard intrusion which shows the trend of the fractional crystalization of magma. 3) In normative Or-Ab-An diagram (Fig. 6) the general trend of the data points from gabbro to porphyritic monzonite of the igneous complex directs to a point of Or/Ab=1:1 on the side of Or-Ab. The field and laboratory evidences suggested that the Yangpyeong igneous complex was thought to be a series of comagmatic differential products.

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추세 시계열 자료의 부트스트랩 적용 (Applying Bootstrap to Time Series Data Having Trend)

  • 박진수;김윤배;송기범
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제38권2호
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2013
  • In the simulation output analysis, bootstrap method is an applicable resampling technique to insufficient data which are not significant statistically. The moving block bootstrap, the stationary bootstrap, and the threshold bootstrap are typical bootstrap methods to be used for autocorrelated time series data. They are nonparametric methods for stationary time series data, which correctly describe the original data. In the simulation output analysis, however, we may not use them because of the non-stationarity in the data set caused by the trend such as increasing or decreasing. In these cases, we can get rid of the trend by differencing the data, which guarantees the stationarity. We can get the bootstrapped data from the differenced stationary data. Taking a reverse transform to the bootstrapped data, finally, we get the pseudo-samples for the original data. In this paper, we introduce the applicability of bootstrap methods to the time series data having trend, and then verify it through the statistical analyses.

Temporal Analysis of Trends in Dissolved Organic Matter in Han River Water

  • Lee, Hye-Won;Choi, Jung-Hyun
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.256-260
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    • 2009
  • This study used the extensive monitoring datasets of the Korea Ministry of Environment to examine trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Han River raw water. To estimate the organic contents of water, we adopted allied parameters such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) as substitutes for DOC. Spatial and temporal analyses were performed on monthly BOD and COD data from 36 monitoring stations (14 for Main Han River, 7 for North Han River and 15 for South Han River) measured from 1989 to 2007. The results of trend analysis indicated that, on the whole, water quality according to BOD showed a downward trend at more than 67% of monitoring stations (9 for Main Han River, 6 for North Han River and 9 for South Han River). However, the water quality of COD showed an upward trend at more than 78% of monitoring stations (8 for Main Han River, 7 for North Han River and 13 for South Han River). The upward trend of COD contrary to the BOD trend indicates that there has been an increase in recalcitrant organic matter in Han River water that is not detectable by means of BOD.