• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.437-448
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• 2016

Some previous researches suggested a transit trip destination inference method by constructing trip chains with incomplete(missing destination) smart card dataset obtained on the entry fare control systems. To explore the feasibility of the transit trip destination inference method, the transit trip chains are constructed from the pre-paid smart card tagging data collected in Busan on October 2014 weekdays by tracing the card IDs, tagging times(boarding, alighting, transfer), and the trip linking distances between two consecutive transit trips in a daily sequences. Assuming that most trips in the transit trip chains are linked successively, the individual transit trip destination zones are inferred as the consecutive linking trip's origin zones. Applying the model to the complete trips with observed OD reveals that about 82% of the inferred trip destinations are the same as those of the observed trip destinations and the inference error defined as the difference in distance between the inferred and observed alighting stops is minimized when the trip linking distance is less than or equal to 0.5km. When applying the model to the incomplete trips with missing destinations, the overall destination missing rate decreases from 71.40% to 21.74% and approximately 77% of the destination missing trips are the single transit trips for which the destinations can not be inferable. In addition, the model remarkably reduces the destination missing rate of the multiple incomplete transit trips from 69.56% to 6.27%. Spearman's rank correlation and Chi-squared goodness-of-fit tests showed that the ranks for transit trips of each zone are not significantly affected by the inferred trips, but the transit trip distributions only using small complete trips are significantly different from those using complete and inferred trips. Therefore, it is concluded that the model should be applicable to derive a realistic transit trip patterns in cities with the incomplete smart card data.