• Wind and Structures
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.17-41
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• 2016

To address the uncertainty of the flight trajectories caused by the turbulence and gustiness of the wind field over the roof and in the wake of a building, a 3-D probabilistic trajectory model of flat-type wind-borne debris is developed in this study. The core of this methodology is a 6 degree-of-freedom deterministic model, derived from the governing equations of motion of the debris, and a Monte Carlo simulation engine used to account for the uncertainty resulting from vertical and lateral gust wind velocity components. The influence of several parameters, including initial wind speed, time step, gust sampling frequency, number of Monte Carlo simulations, and the extreme gust factor, on the accuracy of the proposed model is examined. For the purpose of validation and calibration, the simulated results from the 3-D probabilistic trajectory model are compared against the available wind tunnel test data. Results show that the maximum relative error between the simulated and wind tunnel test results of the average longitudinal position is about 20%, implying that the probabilistic model provides a reliable and effective means to predict the 3-D flight of the plate-type wind-borne debris.

• 지질공학
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.201-211
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 산사태 발생시 붕괴토사량을 산정하기 위하여 산사태 발생면적과 붕괴토사량의 상관관계를 활용하고, 붕괴토사량의 총 이동거리를 예측하기 위하여 붕괴토사량과 붕괴사면의 높이 및 붕괴토사의 도달거리를 활용하였다. 그리고 토석류의 이동경로를 예측하기 위하여 붕괴토사량의 유동 및 퇴적특성을 경사도의 인자로 단순화시킨 랜텀워크 모델을 적용하였다. 산사태 발생지점에서 이동경로 및 피해범위를 산정하기 위하여 토석류 이동 확률계산을 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통하여 10,000회 반복적으로 수행하였다. 이때 계산된 다양한 랜텀워크의 궤적을 피해영역으로 제시하였다. 제안된 랜텀워크 모델을 이용한 산사태 피해범위 산정기법의 정확도를 확인하기 위하여 지리산 천왕봉 일대에서 발생된 산사태 발생이력을 적용하였다. 제안된 모델의 적용성을 검토한 결과 비교적 정확하게 피해범위를 산정하는 것으로 나타났으며, 10 m × 10 m 크기의 셀을 활용하는 것이 실제 피해범위에 대한 정확한 재현이 가능한 것으로 확인되었다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.191-206
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• 2010

Windborne debris is a major cause of structural damage during severe windstorms and hurricanes owing to its direct impact on building envelopes as well as to the 'chain reaction' failure mechanism it induces by interacting with wind pressure damage. Estimation of debris risk is an important component in evaluating wind damage risk to residential developments. A debris risk model developed by the authors enables one to analytically aggregate damage threats to a building from different types of debris originating from neighboring buildings. This model is extended herein to a general debris risk analysis methodology that is then incorporated into a vulnerability model accounting for the temporal evolution of the interaction between pressure damage and debris damage during storm passage. The current paper (Part I) introduces the debris risk analysis methodology, establishing the mathematical modeling framework. Stochastic models are proposed to estimate the probability distributions of debris trajectory parameters used in the method. It is shown that model statistics can be estimated from available information from wind-tunnel experiments and post-damage surveys. The incorporation of the methodology into vulnerability modeling is described in Part II.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.95-108
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• 2010

This review paper discusses research from the last few years relating to windborne debris risk models and the essential elements of engineering damage prediction models. Generic types of windborne debris are discussed. The results of studies of debris trajectories that are relevant to damage models are described - in particular the horizontal component of debris velocity as a function of distance travelled. The merits of impact momentum versus impact kinetic energy as a relevant parameter for predicting damage are considered, and how published data from generic cannon Impact tests can be used in risk models. The quantitative variation of debris impact damage with wind speed is also discussed. Finally the main elements of previously-proposed debris damage models are described.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.109-120
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• 2022

The force coefficients of rotating plates in the acceleration stage will vary with rotation rate from 0 to stable rotation rate w₀, which are important for quasi-steady theory of plate-like windborne debris to simulate the trajectory. In this paper, a wind tunnel experiment is carried out to study the effects of geometry and the Reynolds number on the variations of mean force coefficients of rotating plates. The rotational lift coefficients are sensitive to both geometry effect and Reynolds number effect, while the rotational drag and moment coefficients are only sensitive to geometry effect. In addition, new empirical formulas for the rotational lift coefficient and moment coefficients are proposed. Its accuracy is verified by comparing the predicted results with existing test data. Based on the experimental data of rotating plates, a new rotational force model for quasi-steady theory, which can be applied to a wider scope, is proposed to calculate the trajectory of plate-like windborne debris. The results show that the new model provides a better match with the tested trajectories than previous quasi-steady theories.

• 지질공학
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.57-65
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 자연사면에서 토석류 산사태 대응공법의 설계 프로그램(CDFlow ver 1.0)을 개발하였다. 이 프로그램은 자연사면에서 발생되는 산사태의 발생 가능성을 평가할 수 있으며, 토석류 산사태로 인하여 발생되는 피해범위를 산정할 수 있다. 또한 이 프로그램은 토석류 산사태의 대응공법 위치와 규모를 설계할 수 있다. 이 프로그램은 가장 잘 알려진 지리정보시스템(GIS) 개발도구중의 하나인 ArcGIS 엔진에서 구동되도록 개발되었다. 그리고 유사동역학적인 습윤지수와 무한사면의 안정해석기법을 적용하여 산사태 발생가능성을 예측하였다. 계산된 사면안전율은 기준안전율과 비교하여 산사태 잠재발생 구간을 선정하고 이를 도면상에 표시하였다. 토석류량은 산사태 잠재발생 구간과 토층심도에 의해 산정된다. 그리고 누적 토석류량은 이동경로를 따라서 계산할 수 있다. 개발된 프로그램의 적용성을 평가하기 위하여 실제 산사태 발생현장을 대상으로 적용하였다. 산사태 발생현장은 강원도 인제군 덕산리에 위치하고 있으며, 대상수계에 4개의 사방댐이 설치되어 있다. 토질실험 및 현장조사결과를 토대로 산사태 발생가능성이 높은 구간과 토석류의 이동경로를 산정하였다. 해석결과 기존에 설치된 사방댐의 규모는 계산된 토석류량을 저장하기에 부족한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 본 프로그램을 이용하여 토석류 산사태 대응공법의 설치위치와 규모를 합리적으로 산정할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.354-363
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• 2012

현재 지구 주변의 궤도에는 폐기된 위성을 비롯한 많은 우주파편이 존재하고 있으며, 임무를 수행중인 인공위성이나 유인 우주활동을 위협하고 있다. 2013년 7월까지 임무를 수행할 예정인 아리랑 2호 위성 또한 우주파편에 대한 고려가 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 앞으로의 원활한 우주활동을 위해 제정된 25년 규정 중 저궤도의 경우 임무종료 후 25년 이내에 지구대기로 하강하여 소각되어야 하는 요구조건을 소개하고, 이를 준수하기 위해 연료소모를 최소화하는 폐기경로 설계에 대한 내용을 기술하고 있다. 그리고 생성한 폐기경로에 접근하는 물체로 인한 위험성을 분석하게 위해서 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 방법을 제안하였다. 분석 결과 가장 위험성이 높은 경로의 충돌확률은 6.0741E-07으로 나타났으며 접근한 상대 물체의 크기를 알 수 없으므로 보다 정밀한 분석이 필요함을 알 수 있었다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.185-202
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• 2013

The goal of this study was to investigate the vulnerability of roof tile systems and metal shutters to roof tile debris. Three phases addressed the performance of tile roof systems and metal shutters impacted by roof tile debris. The first phase experimentally evaluated the tile fragment size and quantity generated by a tile striking a tile roof system. The second phase experimentally quantified the puncture vulnerability of common metal panel shutter systems as a function of tile fragment impact speed. The third phase provided context for interpretation of the experimental results through the use of a tile trajectory model. The results provide supporting evidence that while metal panel window shutters provide significant protection against a prevalent form of windborne debris, these systems are vulnerable to tile fragment puncture in design level tropical cyclones. These findings correlate with field observations made after Hurricane Charley (2004).

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.745-753
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• 2019

Recently, with the development of long-range / high-altitude guided weapon system for defense against ballistic missile, test range and firing altitude for guided weapons are increasing. Due to the increase in the test range and the intercepting altitude, it is expected to increase the range of safety area required for the firing test. Comparing to the foreign countries which have many desert or non-residence, in the domestic circumstances where the population is concentrated and distributed, it is more important to predict the falling area and to set the safety area for safely carry out the long-range / high-altitude intercept test. In this paper, we consider the following three points. The first is the booster fall trajectory modeling, the second is the shroud fall trajectory modeling, and finally, the debris dispersion modeling for the missile intercept. Especially, the AUTODYN model was used to predict debris falling area which produced in the high-speed guided missile intercepting test.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.145-157
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• 2023

Due to a recent increase in maritime activities in South Korea, the frequency of maritime distress is escalating and poses a significant threat to lives and property. The aim of this study was to validate a drift trajectory prediction technique to help mitigate the damages caused by maritime distress incidents. In this study, OpenDrift was verified using satellite drifter data from the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency. OpenDrift is a Monte-Carlo-based Lagrangian trajectory modeling framework that allows for considering leeway, an important factor in predicting the movement of floating marine objects. The simulation results showed no significant differences in the performance of drift trajectory prediction when considering leeway using four evaluation methods (normalized cumulative Lagrangian separation, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and Euclidean distance). However, leeway improved the performance in an analysis of location prediction conformance for maritime search and rescue operations. Therefore, the findings of this study suggest that it is important to consider leeway in drift trajectory prediction for effective maritime search and rescue operations. The results could help with future research on drift trajectory prediction of various floating objects, including marine debris, satellite drifters, and sea ice.