• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.131-138
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• 2013

PURPOSES : The intents of the study are to identify the accident factors and to demonstrate the potentials of tobit model as a tool to study the number of accidents on arterial roads segments. METHODS : This paper uses a tobit regression as a methodology to analyze the factors affecting the number of accidents. In pursuing the above goal, this study gives particular attentions to analyzing the data of 2,446 accidents (1,610 in major arterial roads and 836 in minor arterial roads) occurred on arterial roads in 2007 to 2010. RESULTS : First, 3 accident models which were classified by total arterial roads, major arterial roads and minor arterial roads, and were all statistically significant were developed. Second, the exclusive right-turn lane as common variable, and the number of accident, traffic volume, number of lanes, link length, rate of median, number of entrances, number of pedestrian crossings, number of curves, number of bus stops and exclusive left-turn as specific variables of the models were selected. Finally, the paired sample t-test could not be rejected the null hypotheses of three types of models. CONCLUSIONS : Using data from vehicle accidents on arterial roads, the estimation results show that many factors related to roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect to the number of accidents.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.95-106
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• 2005

Road accidents are considered as the result of a complex interplay between road, vehicle, environments, and human factors. Little study, however, has been carried out on the attributes of human factor compared to the road geometric conditions and traffic conditions. The previous researches focused on mainly both traffic and geometric conditions on specific location. Therefore, it's hard to explain phenomenon of the high traffic accident rates where road and traffic conditions are good. Because of these reasons, accident analysis has contributed on geometric improvement and has not contributed on traffic management such as selection of attention section, driver napping alert, etc. The freeway incident management is also associated with reliable prediction of incident occurrences on freeway sections. This paper presents a method for estimating the effect of trip length on freeway accident rate. A PAR (Potential Accident Ratio), the new concept of accident analysis, considering TLFDs (Trip Length Frequency Distributions) is suggested in this paper. This approach can help to strengthen freeway management and to reduce the likelihood of accidents.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.83-90
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• 2012

Driver ordinarily takes sudden braking when urgent situation is developed or when the vehicle is involved in an unexpected accident. Therefore, the most common trace at a traffic accident scene is skid mark. Currently, in investigating traffic accident, overspeed is determined by the length of skid mark. However, in order to identify accurate cause of accident, estimation of pre-braking speed which takes into account speed reduction during transient time should be considered as a requirement. In a recent study, several ways to estimate pre-braking speed were suggested, but none considered to differentiate the decelerating transient brake section and skidding section. This study analyzed trends of decelerating transient brake section and skidding section by real braking test.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.221-230
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• 2016

To establish objective criteria for high pedestrian accident zones, we combined Getis-ord Gi* and Kernel Density Estimation to select high pedestrian accident zones for 54,208 pedestrian accidents in Seoul from 2009 to 2013. By applying Getis-ord Gi* and considering spatial patterns where pedestrian accident hot spots were clustered, this study identified high pedestrian accident zones. The research examined the microscopic distribution of accidents in high pedestrian accident zones, identified the critical hot spots through Kernel Density Estimation, and analyzed the inner distribution of hot spots by identifying the areas with high density levels.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.17-24
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• 2008

Traffic accident forecasting model has been developed steadily to understand factors affecting traffic accidents and to reduce them. In Korea, the length of highways is over 3,000km, and it is within the top ten in the world. However, the number of accidents-per-one kilometer highway is higher than any other countries. The rapid increase of travel demand and transportation infrastructures since 1980's may influence on the high rates of traffic accident. Accident severity is one of the important indices as well as the rate of accident and factors such as road geometric conditions, driver characteristics and type of vehicles may be related to traffic accident severity. However, since all these factors are interacted complicatedly, the interactions are not easily identified. A structural equations model is adopted to capture the complex relationships among variables. In the model estimation, we use 2,880 accident data on highways in Korea. The SEM with several factors mentioned above as endogenous and exogenous variables shows that they have complex and strong relationships.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2004.06a
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• pp.328-333
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• 2004

Railway is huge traffic system which is operated organically combining all the elements; vehicle, track, electric power, signal/communication, operation, etc. Safety level has ben improved steadily by learning lessons from past accident. But with rapid progress in high-speed, massive, high-frequency transit fresh idea of accident prevention is now in order. In quest of effective and efficient countermeasure, we aim to establish an adequate safety evaluation/management method. Our proposals are basic concept relating to safety analysis of fatal accidents, AHP of Saaty, Fuzzy AHP.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.192-198
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• 2003

Railway is huge traffic system which is operated organically combining all the elements; vehicle, track, electric power, signal/communication, operation, etc. Safety level has been improved steadily by learning lessons from past accident. But with rapid progress in high-speed, massive, high-frequency transit fresh idea of accident prevention is now in order. In quest of effective and efficient countermeasure, we aim to establish an adequate safety evaluation/management method. Our proposals are basic concept relating to safety analysis of fatal accidents, AHP of Saaty, Fuzzy AHP.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.132-146
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• 2017

Appropriate speed limits at a reasonable level in urban roads are highly important factors for efficient and safe movement. Thus, it is greatly necessary to develop the objective models or methodology based on engineering study considering factors such as traffic accident rates, roadside development levels, and roadway geometry characteristics etc. The purpose of this study is to develop the estimate model of appropriate speed limits at each road sections in urban roads using traffic information big data and field specific data and to review the effects of accident decrease. In this study, the estimate method of appropriate speed limits in directional two or more lanes of urban roads is reflecting features of actual variables in a form of adjustment factor on the basis of the maximum statutory speed limits. As a result of investigating and testing influential variables, the main variables to affect the operating speed are the function of road, the existence of median, the width of lane, the number of traffic entrance/exit path and the number of traffic signal or nonsignal at intersection and crosswalk. As a result of testing this model, when the differences are bigger between the real operating speed and the recommended speed limits using model developed in this study, the accident rate generally turns out to be higher. In case of using the model proposed in this study, it means accident rate can be lower. When the result of this study is applied, the speed limits of directional two or more lane roads in Seoul appears about 11km/h lower than the current speed limits. The decrease of average operating speed caused by the decrease of speed limits is 2.8km/h, and the decrease effect of whole accidents according to the decrease of speed is 18% at research road. In case that accident severity is considered, the accident decrease effects are expected to 17~24% in fatalities, 11~17% in seriously injured road user, 6~9% in slightly injured road user, 5~6% in property damage only accidents.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.111-121
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• 2008

Using variable speed limits (VSL) is a key strategy for preventing traffic accidents and alleviating traffic congestion. This study proposes an algorithm to operate VSLs on freeways for traffic safety. The proposed algorithm consists of two components based on accident likelihood estimation and analysis of safe stopping distance under various environmental conditions. A binary logistic regression technique is used for estimating accident likelihood. It is expected that the proposed algorithm would be successfully applied in practice in support of an integrated traffic and environmental condition monitoring system. Technical issues associated with the field implementation are also discussed.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.133-142
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• 2014

PURPOSES : The objective was to develop the advanced method which could not explain each observation's specific characteristic in the present negative binomial method that results in under-estimation of the standard error(t-value inflation) and affects the confidence of whole derived results. METHODS : This study dealt with traffic accidents occurring within interchange segment on highway main line with RPNB(Random Parameter Negative Binomial) method that enables to take account of heterogeneity. RESULTS : As a result, AADT and lighting installation type on the road were revealed to have random parameter and in terms of other geometric variables, all were derived as fixed parameter(same effect on every segment). Also, marginal effects were adapted to analyze the relative effects on traffic accidents. CONCLUSIONS : This study proves that RPNB method which considers each observation's specific characteristics is better fitted to the accident data with geometrics. Thus, it is recommended that RPNB model or other methods which could consider the heterogeneity needs to be adapted in accident analysis.