• 무역학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제49권
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• pp.461-490
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to examine which factors are encouraging SMEs to participate in uTradeHub(focused on the uTrade search service) in terms of product characteristics and sourcing patterns. The three factors encouraging Trade e-Marketplaces are identified in this study. First, internal factors include the support of top management, mature of IT infrastructure. Second, external factors include the pressure of industry, industry competition, dependence of trading partners. Third perception factors are perceived Usefulness, perceived easy of use. The empirical analysis had the following results. First, it reveals that support of top management, mature of IT infrastructure, industry competition have significant influence upon uTrade Search Services. On the other hand, pressure of industry, dependence of trading partners, Perceived relative benefits are not significant variable of the participation in uTrade Search Services. Second, the factors affecting the participation in uTrade Search Services are differentiated in terms of product characteristics and sourcing patterns. And the support of top management, mature of IT infrastructure, Perceived relative benefits are emphasized very important factors affecting the participation of uTrade Search Services in SMEs. The industry competition is recognized as more important factor in horizontal market in which Spot sourcing just like Operating products is trading. On the other hands, the dependence of trading partners are significant factor in vertical market in which Systemic sourcing just like Manufacturing products is trading.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제61권
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• pp.165-190
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to measure the trade insurance's macroeconomic effects by analyzing the causality between major economic variables(GDP per capita, market interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate) and trade insurance variable. I conducted empirical analyses using First-difference GMM(Generalized Method of Moments), System GMM and Panel-VAR Model, with panel data from 11 countries(Korea, United States, Japan, BRICs, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam) between 1992 and 2011. There are several important findings. Above all, Trade insurance is positively and significantly related to GDP. This results show that trade insurance serves to increase economic growth. In other words, trade insurance leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. Especially, trade insurance negatively related to unemployment rate, it is for sure that trade insurance contribute to decrease unemployment rate. And trade insurance helps control of inflation. It is also confirmed that trade insurance contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy. And this research finds as uncertainty in the market increases, seen it as increase of exchange rate, increasing trade insurance supply is stabilize the exchange rate.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.437-453
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• 2006

Services could move over the world where they want to go. Especially, travel services shared 29.4 percent of total world exports, 625 billion dollars in 2004 (WTO, 2005). Tourism is a very important sector in service trade in the world. Of developing countries, Korea has been experiencing remarkable development in female outbound travel market since the complete liberalization on overseas travels in 1989, with about 3.85 million travelers in 2005, 2,000 percent growth rate over 1988. It means woman's social status has been increasing in Korea. Especially, in the study young housekeepers, solely office ladies, and college students were described as very important market segments in Korean woman outbound travel market. They were not only major decision makers, but also executors because of both enough economic power and social status improvement on small sized family. This study indicated that woman outbound travel market gets larger because their buying power and status are going to go improved in Korean social system. It is recommended that marketers be worth watching Korean woman travellers as a major target market through continuos observation and analysis.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.467-492
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• 2008

부산지역은 일본에 대한 교역의존도가 높으며 경제환경 변동에 대한 부산의 교역탄력성이 낮은 것을 알 수 있다. 품목별로 부산과 일본과는 산업내무역의 정도가 상당히 다르게 나타났고 많은 제품들에서 수평적 산업내 무역과 고품질 수직적 산업내무역 뿐만 아니라 저품질 수직적 산업내무역이 발생하고 있다. 일본시장에서 비교우위를 살펴본 결과 비교열위가 있는 품목이 많았는데 특히 1970년대 부산의 주종 수출품인 신발은 일본과는 낮은 산업내무역과 함께 2001년부터 시장비교열위가 상당히 나타났다. 부산의 중요한 산업인 자동차 관련 산업은 일본시장에서 승용자동차 및 기타의 차량, 화물자동차 및 특수목적차량 등에 있어서 시장비교열위가 크게 나타났다. 무역수지기여도 분석결과 2000년대 초반에는 화학물과 기계 및 운수장비 등의 제품들에 있어서 무역수지 기여도가 양수와 음수로 나타나는 등 변동이 다소 나타났다. 부산의 품목별 비교우위패턴의 회귀분석결과, 일본시장에서 비교우위가 높은 품목들은 비교우위가 조금씩 감소하고 있는 반면 비교열위가 있는 품목들은 비교열위가 감소해가고 있는 수출구조를 가지고 있으며 또한 비교우위의 정도가 품목별로 수렴해가고 있다.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.517-545
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• 2008

본 연구에서는 한 중 IT산업의 기업 및 경쟁력 분석, 수출입구조를 통해 전반적인 무역의 흐름을 알아보고 정보통신기기 분야인 통신기기, 정보기기, 방송기기, 부품 등 4개 분야에 대해 무역집중도(Trade Intensity), 현시비교우위지수(Revealed Comparative Advantage), Grubel-Lloyd 지수, 불변시장점유율(Constant Market Share) 등으로 한 중 무역구조를 분석하였는데 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 한국은 2004년 이후 3개 기업이 글로벌 500대 기업 리스트에 등재되어 왔으나 중국기업들이 평균 2.25개로 한국을 바짝 쫓아오는 상황에 직면해 있다. 둘째, 무역집중도 지수 분석결과 2002년보다 2007년에 4.57% 증가하여 한 중 간 통신기기에 관한 교역의 긴밀도가 높아지고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 셋째, 현시비교우위지수(Revealed Comparative Advantage)와 Grubel-Lloyd 지수의 분석결과 한국 정보통신기기는 비교열위에 있지만 수출입 구조에서는 흑자를 내고 있다. 넷째, 최근 들어 중국 수입시장에서 상당수 정보통신기기 제품의 시장점유율은 경쟁력과 상품공급구조의 변동으로 시장점유율이 하락하였다. 현재 한 중 정보통신기기 분야의 무역구조 변화와 중국수입시장에서 시장점유율 하락의 어려움을 국내 IT산업이 한 단계 도약할 수 있는 계기로 삼아야 할 것이다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제55권2호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2024

This study analyzes the impact of import country environments on Korean fishery exports. To achieve the research objective, focusing on trade facilitation and import market aspects, the import country environment was modeled and analyzed by panel gravity analysis technique. In the basic export model considering only the trade facilitation aspect, agriculture and institutional factors had a significant impact on Korean fishery exports. However, when considering both trade facilitation and import market aspects, it was found that import market aspect had a greater influence on Korean fishery exports than trade facilitation aspect. Specifically, the import market factor that had the most positive impact on Korean fishery exports was the GDP of the import country. GDP, representing the economic scale of the country, indicates consumer purchasing power through per capita GDP. Hence, a higher GDP level implies a higher consumer purchasing power, suggesting a higher potential consumption of fishery products. The second positive factor influencing Korean fishery exports was food imports in the import country. Therefore, to expand Korean fishery exports, it is essential to target countries with high levels of GDP and food imports. Conversely, factors negatively affecting Korean fishery exports were merchandise imports and population in the import country. Therefore, countries with high levels of these negative factors should be managed as demarketing targets. Additionally, trade facilitation variables, which have relatively smaller influence, such as transparency and institutions, also significantly impact Korean fishery exports. While transparency has a positive effect, institution has a negative effect. Thus, to expand Korean fishery exports, strategies should focus on countries with high transparency and less stringent institutional regulations.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.79-100
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• 2023

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to analyze the market power of the Korea Container Shipping Market (Intra Asia, Korea-Europe, and Korea-U.S.) to verify the existence of collusion empirically, and to answer whether the joint actions of liner market participants in Korea have formed market dominance for each route. Precisely, it will be verified through the Lerner index as to whether the regional market of Asia is a monopoly, oligopoly, or perfect competition. Design/methodology - This study used a Lerner index adjusted with elasticity presented in the New Imperial Organization (NEIO) studies. NEIO refers to a series of empirical studies that estimate parameters to judge market power from industrial data. This study uses B-L empirical models by Bresnahan (1982) and Lau (1982). In addition, NEIO research data statistically contain self-regression and stability problems as price and time series data. A dynamic model following Steen and Salvanes' Error Correction Model was used to solve this problem. Findings - The empirical results are as follows. First, λ, representing market power, is nearly zero in all three markets. Second, the Korean shipping market shows low demand elasticity on average. Nevertheless, the markup is low, a characteristic that is difficult to see in other industries. Third, the Korean shipping market generally remains close to perfect competition from 2014 to 2022, but extreme market power appears in a specific period, such as COVID-19. Fourth, there was no market power in the Intra Asia market from 2008 to 2014. Originality/value - Doubts about perfect competition in the liner market continued, but there were few empirical cases. This paper confirmed that the Korea liner market is a perfect competition market. This paper is the first to implement dynamics using ECM and recursive regression to demonstrate market power in the Korean liner market by dividing the shipping market into Deep Sea and Intra Asia separately. It is also the first to prove the most controversial problems in the current shipping industry numerically and academically.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.175-186
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• 2021

Purpose - This study intended to identify the effects of varied institutional systems and policies that regulate or define operations of enterprises upon the profitability of private enterprises through case analysis. Design/methodology/approach - The systems and differences in the institution and commodity distribution in Korea and Japan, which define the operation of the "Garak Wholesale Market" and "Ota Wholesale Market". We were examined in the presentthis study, and the statistical data pertinent to the trade volume and profitability of wholesale market corporations that substantially run both markets, were analyzed. Findings - The competition among the corporations that run the "Garak Wholesale Market" substantially is limited due to regulations over the mode of transaction and monopoly of trust thereby significantly higher level of profitability and safety are guaranteed. However, the institutional autonomy that enabled each distributor in the "Ota Wholesale Market" to compete with each other freely caused the distributors therein face difficulties in securing stable profits due to the relatively poor level of profitability resulted from the autonomy. Research implications or Originality - It seems the autonomy in commercial transaction in the "Garak Wholesale Market" in Korea needs to be secured to promote the competition of distributors therein through an amelioration of institutional systems and amendment of relevant laws that prescribe current management of various distributors/operators in the market.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제50권
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• pp.309-331
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• 2011

Today, the world is considered to indispensable basic data in specific gravity of international trade is increasing in economic activity of every country with globalization, and trade connection index number analyzes an economy or part of trade that contribute to economic growth of a country along with other foreign trade statistics and evaluates along with this. Also, it is becoming one of big subject for economic policy person in charge and related economists I do how measure movement of amount, price and amount of materials in trade. But, about till now interest lack about trade index and trade index creation theoretical, it is actuality that export, import connection index number or similar research is not attained much into domestic and overseas from study tribe which is gone ahead. Moreover, study that try to judge and forecast stream of market applying trade connection index number is hard to find on study until now. And, in this research, there is the objective to figure out stream of Korean market change through trade business index creation that base on Korea Customs Administration export and the importation data and this is differences with several study, and at the same time, it is value of this study.