• Title/Summary/Keyword: time-serise

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Time series regression model for forecasting the number of elementary school teachers (초등학교 교원 수 예측을 위한 시계열 회귀모형)

  • Ryu, Soo Rack;Kim, Jong Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.321-332
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    • 2013
  • Because of the continuous low birthrates, the number of the elementary students will decrease by 17% in 2020 compared to 2011. The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of elementary school teachers until 2020. We used the data in education statistical year books from 1970 to 2010. We used the time-series regression model, time series grouped regression model and exponential smoothing model to predict the number of teachers for the next ten years. Consequently time-series grouped regression model is a better model for forecasting the number of elementary school teachers than other models.

Centrifuge Modeling of Soft Clay with Vertical Drains Considering the Centrifuge Similarity (상사성을 고려한 배수재 설치 연약점토 지반의 원심모델링)

  • Yoo, Nam-Jae;Hong, Young-Kil;Jeong, Gil-Soo;Cho, Han-Ki
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.27 no.A
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2007
  • This paper is results of experimental research on the effect of application of similarity related to permeability of soil on the consolidation behavior as centrifuge modeling of consolidation is performed with the centrifuge model facility. In this research, the permeability of soil was controlled by changing the viscosity of porewater as the mixed water with glycerin was used during the centrifuge model experiments. The effect of drainage path on consolidation was investigated by installing the vertical drains. A serise of centrifuge model tests with conditions of single vertical and radial horizontal drainage were carried out. Kaolinite and Jumunjin standard sand were used as soft clay and surcharges respectively during tests. For testing condition of single vertical drainage considering similarity of permeability, it was found that consolidation with mixed porewater with glycerin was delayed in comparisons sons with test results with water only. For conditions of horizontal drainage with vertical drains, a low permeability by changing the viscosity of pore water resulted in delayed degree of consolidation at an initial stage of consolidation. But, it predicted not much differences in settlement as long as the consolidation time was sufficiently long enough to finish consolidation. Consequently, it was found that similarity in permeability should be considered to be critical for the case of centrifuge model experiments related to consolidation with long drainage path.

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Variations of Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature in the Korea seas Peninsula using Satellite Data(Topex/Poseidon and NOAA) (위성자료(Topex/Poseidon, NOAA)를 이용한 한반도 주변해역의 해수면 및 해수온변화 연구)

  • Yoon Hong-Joo;Cho Han-Keun;Lee Bong-Sic;Jeong Young-Deok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.485-488
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    • 2006
  • SLA and SST is high in summer and fall, it is low in spring and winter. The clearly annual period shows through the power spectrum density. A semi-annual period and seasonal period appeared, In. At sea surface variation of satellite data(Mean Sea Level Anomaly) and in-situ data, coefficient-correlation show 0.323 at Mukho which is located in the coastal. Chujado and Ulleungdo is a 0.685 and 0.780, retentively. A coefficient-correlation of SST show higher than sea surface variation as Mukho-0.920, Chujado-0.894 and Ulleungdo-0.815. A comparison between SST and MSLA show 0.77, SST appeared faster about 1 to 3 months than MSLA.

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A study on dermatologic diseases of workers exposed to cutting oil (절삭유 취급 근로자의 피부질환에 관한 연구)

  • Chun, Byung-Chul;Kim, Hee-Ok;Kim, Soon-Duck;Oh, Chil-Hwan;Yum, Yong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.4 s.55
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    • pp.785-799
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    • 1996
  • We investigated the 1,004 workers who worked in a automobile factory to study the epidemiologic characterists of dermatoses due to cutting oils. Among the workers, 667(66.4%) answered the questionaire. They are belong to 5 departments of the factory-the Engine-Work(258 workers), Gasoline engine Assembly(210), Diesel engine Assembly(96), Power train Work(86), Power train Assembly(17). We measured the oil mist concentration in air of the departments and examined the workers who had dermatologic symptoms. The results were follows; 1) Oil mist concentration ; Of all measured points(52),9 points(17.2%) exeeded $5mg/m^3$- the time-weighed PEL-and one department had a upper confidence limit(95%) higher than $5mg/m^3$. 2) Dermatologists examined 213 workers. 172 of them complained any skin symptoms at that time - itching(32.5%), papule(21.6%), scale(15.7%), vesicle(12.5%) in order. The abnormal skin site found by dermatologist were palm(29.3%), finger & nail(24.6%), forearm(16.2%), back of hand(8.4%) in order. 3) As the result of physical examination, we found that 160 workers had skin diseases. Contact dermatitis was the most common; 69 workers had contact dermatitis alone(43.1%), 11 had contact dermatitis with acne(6.9%), 10 had contact dermatitis with folliculitis(6.3%), 1 had contact dermatitis with acne & folliculitis, and 1 had contact dermatitis with abnormal pigmentation. Others were folliculitis(9 workers, 5.6%), acne(8, 5.0%), folliculitis & acne (2, 1.2%), keratosis(1, 0.6%), abnormal pigmentation (1, 0.6%), and non-specific hand eczema (47, 29.3%). 4) The prevalence of any skin diseases was 34.0 pet 100 in cutting oil users, and 13.3 per 100 in non- users. Especially, the prevalence of contact dermatitis was 23.0 per 100 in cutting oil users and 23.0 per 100 in non-users. 5) We tried patch test(standard serise, oil serise, organic solvents) on 49 patients to differentiate allergic contact dermatitis from irritant contact dermatitis and found 20 were positive. 6) In a multivariate analysis(independant=age, tenure, kinds of cutting oil), the risk of skin diseases was higher in the water-based cutting oil user and both oil user than non-user or neat oil user(odds ratio were 2.16 and 2.78, respectively). And the risk of contact dermatitis was much higher at the same groups(odds ratio were 5.16 and 6.82, respectively).

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