• Title/Summary/Keyword: time series prediction

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A Numerical Simulation of Dissolved Oxygen Based on Stochastically-Changing Solar Radiation Intensity (일사량의 확률분포를 이용한 용존산소의 수치예측실험)

  • LEE In-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.617-623
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    • 2001
  • To predict the seasonal variation of dissolved oxygen (DO) in Hakata bay, Japan, possible 20 time-series of different hourly-solar-radiation intensities were generated based on stochastically changing solar radiation intensity, and a numerical simulation on dissolved oxygen (DO) was carried out for each time series by using the Sediment-Water Ecological Model (SWEM). The model, consisting of two sub-models with hydrodynamic and biological models, simulates the circulation process of nutrient between water column and sediment, such as nutrient regeneration from sediments as well as ecological structures on the growth of phytoplankton and zooplankton, The results of the model calibration followed the seasonal variation of observed water quality well, and generated cumulative-frequency-distribution (CFD) curves of daily solar radiation agreed well with observed ones, The simulation results indicated that the exchange of sea water would have a great influence on the DO concentration, and that the concentration could change more than 1 mg/L in a day. This prediction method seems to be an effective way to examine a solution to minimize fishery damage when DO is depleted.

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A Study on the Tidal Harmonic Analysis, and long-term Sea Level Ocillations at Incheon Bay (인천만의 조석조화해석 및 장기해수면 변동연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2010
  • This study investigate the characteristics of tidal constituents, and long-term mean sea level oscillations at Incheon bay. For this, the conditions of three tide stations around Incheon bay have examined, and carried out harmonic analysis on water level data for periods of about 40 years(1960~2007). Four major tidal constituents($M_2$, $S_2$, $K_1$, $O_1$) of each tide station showed tendency that change over the 18.61year lunar node cycle, and the type of tide at three stations is mainly semi-diurnal tides. And also, the past monthly tidal modulations are especially sensitive to the cumulative year of water level data in accuracy of tidal prediction. In case that regard the detached data at three tide stations as a single time series data of 40 years, the results of analysis on a single time series, long-term mean sea level oscillations and modulations of tidal datum at tide stations appears with a range of about 10cm, respectively. In addition, the predicted tides at the Inchcon harbor by global and regional tide models of OSU(Oregon State University) based on various satellite altimetric(Topex Poseidon, Topex Tandem, ERS, GFO) data are compared with the observed tides by KHOA(the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration). The results show that the high resolution regional model is a quite good agreement at coastal shallow water region.

A Comparative Model Study on the Intermittent Demand Forecast of Air Cargo - Focusing on Croston and Holts models - (항공화물의 간헐적 수요예측에 대한 비교 모형 연구 - Croston모형과 Holts모형을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Byung-Cheol;Park, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • A variety of methods have been proposed through a number of studies on sophisticated demand forecasting models that can reduce logistics costs. These studies mainly determine the applicable demand forecasting model based on the pattern of demand quantity and try to judge the accuracy of the model through statistical verification. Demand patterns can be broadly divided into regularity and irregularity. A regular pattern means that the order is regular and the order quantity is constant. In this case, predicting demand mainly through regression model or time series model was used. However, this demand is called "intermittent demand" when irregular and fluctuating amount of order quantity is large, and there is a high possibility of error in demand prediction with existing regression model or time series model. For items that show intermittent demand, predicting demand is mainly done using Croston or HOLTS. In this study, we analyze the demand patterns of various items of air cargo with intermittent patterns and apply the most appropriate model to predict and verify the demand. In this process, intermittent optimal demand forecasting model of air cargo is proposed by analyzing the fit of various models of air cargo by item and region.

A Prediction of the Land-cover Change Using Multi-temporal Satellite Imagery and Land Statistical Data: Case Study for Cheonan City and Asan City, Korea (다중시기 위성영상과 토지 통계자료를 이용한 토지피복 변화 예측: 천안시·아산시를 사례로)

  • KIM, Chansoo;PARK, Ji-Hoon;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.41-56
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    • 2011
  • This study analyzes the change in land-cover based on satellite imagery to draw up land-cover map in the future, and estimates the change in land category using statistical data of the land category. To estimate land category, this study applied the double exponentially smoothing method. The result of the land cover classification according to year using satellite imagery showed that the type with the largest increase in area of land cover change in the cities of Cheonan and Asan was artificial structure, followed by water, grass field and bare land. However forest, paddy, marsh and dry field were reduced. Further, the result of the time-series analysis of the land category was found to be similar to the result of the land cover classification using satellite imagery. Especially, the result of the estimation of the land category change using the double exponentially smoothing method showed that paddy, dry field, forest and marsh are anticipated to consistently decrease in area from 2010 to 2100, whereas artificial structure, water, bare land and grass field are anticipated to consistently increase. Such results can be utilized as basic data to estimate the change in land cover according to climate change in order to prepare climate change response strategies.

Prediction of the Area Inundated by Lake Effluent According to Hypothetical Collapse Scenarios of Cheonji Ground at Mt. Baekdu (백두산 천지 붕괴 가상 시나리오 별 천지못 유출수의 피해영향범위 예측)

  • Suh, Jangwon;Yi, Huiuk;Kim, Sung-Min;Park, Hyeong-Dong
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.409-425
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    • 2013
  • This study presents a prediction of a time-series of the area inundated by effluent from Heavenly Lake caused by ground behavior prior to a volcanic eruption. A GIS-based hydrological algorithm that considers the multi-flow direction of effluent, the absorption and storage capacity of the ground soil, the storage volume of the basin or the depression terrain, was developed. To analyze the propagation pattern, four hypothetical collapse zones on the cheonji ground were set, considering the topographical characteristics and distributions of volcanic rocks at Mt. Baekdu. The results indicate that at 3 hours after collapse, for both scenarios 1 and 2 (collapses of the entire/southern boundary of cheonji), a flood hazard exists for villages in China, but not for those on the North Korean side of the mountain, due to the topographical characteristics of Mt. Baekdu. It is predicted that villages in both North Korea and China would be significantly damaged by flood inundation at 3 hours elapsed time for both scenarios 3 and 4 (collapses on the southern boundary of cheonji and on the southeastern-peak area).

Development of Deep-Learning-Based Models for Predicting Groundwater Levels in the Middle-Jeju Watershed, Jeju Island (딥러닝 기법을 이용한 제주도 중제주수역 지하수위 예측 모델개발)

  • Park, Jaesung;Jeong, Jiho;Jeong, Jina;Kim, Ki-Hong;Shin, Jaehyeon;Lee, Dongyeop;Jeong, Saebom
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.697-723
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    • 2022
  • Data-driven models to predict groundwater levels 30 days in advance were developed for 12 groundwater monitoring stations in the middle-Jeju watershed, Jeju Island. Stacked long short-term memory (stacked-LSTM), a deep learning technique suitable for time series forecasting, was used for model development. Daily time series data from 2001 to 2022 for precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and groundwater level were considered. Various models were proposed that used different combinations of the input data types and varying lengths of previous time series data for each input variable. A general procedure for deep-learning-based model development is suggested based on consideration of the comparative validation results of the tested models. A model using precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and previous groundwater level data as input variables outperformed any model neglecting one or more of these data categories. Using extended sequences of these past data improved the predictions, possibly owing to the long delay time between precipitation and groundwater recharge, which results from the deep groundwater level in Jeju Island. However, limiting the range of considered groundwater usage data that significantly affected the groundwater level fluctuation (rather than using all the groundwater usage data) improved the performance of the predictive model. The developed models can predict the future groundwater level based on the current amount of precipitation and groundwater use. Therefore, the models provide information on the soundness of the aquifer system, which will help to prepare management plans to maintain appropriate groundwater quantities.

The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

The Impact of High Apparent Temperature on the Increase of Summertime Disease-related Mortality in Seoul: 1991-2000 (높은 체감온도가 서울의 여름철 질병 사망자 증가에 미치는 영향, 1991-2000)

  • Choi, Gwang-Yong;Choi, Jong-Nam;Kwon, Ho-Jang
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.283-290
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    • 2005
  • Objectives : The aim of this paper was to examine the relationship between the summertime (June to August) heat index, which quantifies the bioclimatic apparent temperature in sultry weather, and the daily disease-related mortality in Seoul for the period from 1991 to 2000. Methods : The daily maximum (or minimum) summertime heat indices, which show synergetic apparent temperatures, were calculated from the six hourly temperatures and real time humidity data for Seoul from 1991 to 2000. The disease-related daily mortality was extracted with respect to types of disease, age and sex, etc. and compared with the time series of the daily heat indices. Results : The summertime mortality in 1994 exceeded the normal by 626 persons. Specifically, blood circulation-related and cancer-related mortalities increased in 1994 by 29.7% (224 persons) and 15.4% (107 persons), respectively, compared with those in 1993. Elderly persons, those above 65 years, were shown to be highly susceptible to strong heat waves, whereas the other age and sex-based groups showed no significant difference in mortality. In particular, a heat wave episode on the 22nd of July 2004 ($>45^{\circ}C$ daily heat index) resulted in double the normal number of mortalities after a lag time of 3 days. Specifically, blood circulation-related mortalities, such as cerebral infraction, were predominant causes. Overall, a critical mortality threshold was reached when the heat index exceeded approximately $37^{\circ}C$, which corresponds to human body temperature. A linear regression model based on the heat indices above $37^{\circ}C$, with a 3 day lag time, accounted for 63% of the abnormally increased mortality (${\geq}+2$ standard deviations). Conclusions : This study revealed that elderly persons, those over 65 years old, are more vulnerable to mortality due to abnormal heat waves in Seoul, Korea. When the daily maximum heat index exceeds approximately $37^{\circ}C$, blood circulation-related mortality significantly increases. A linear regression model, with respect to lag-time, showed that the heat index based on a human model is a more dependable indicator for the prediction of hot weather-related mortality than the ambient air temperature.

Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Distribution Scenarios over the Landslide High Risk Zones in Urban Areas (도심지 토사재해 고위험지역 극치강우 시간분포 시나리오 분석)

  • Yoon, Sunkwon;Jang, Sangmin;Rhee, Jinyoung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we analyzed the extreme rainfall distribution scenarios based on probable rainfall calculation and applying various time distribution models over the landslide high risk zones in urban areas. We used observed rainfall data form total 71 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) station and AWS (Automatic Weather Station) in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and we analyzed the linear trends for 1-hr and 24-hr annual maximum rainfall series using simple linear regression method, which are identified their increasing trends with slopes of 0.035 and 0.660 during 1961-2014, respectively. The Gumbel distribution was applied to obtain the return period and probability precipitation for each duration. The IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for landslide high risk zones were derived by applying integrated probability precipitation intensity equation. Results from IDF analysis indicate that the probability precipitation varies from 31.4~38.3 % for 1 hr duration, and 33.0~47.9 % for 24 hr duration. It also showed different results for each area. The $Huff-4^{th}$ Quartile method as well as Mononobe distribution were selected as the rainfall distribution scenarios of landslide high risk zones. The results of this study can be used to provide boundary conditions for slope collapse analysis, to analyze sediment disaster risk, and to use as input data for risk prediction of debris flow.

Liver Cancer Mortality Characteristics and Trends in China from 1991 to 2012

  • Fang, Jia-Ying;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Zeng, Yang;Tang, Wen-Rui;Du, Pei-Ling;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Xu, Xiao-Ling;Luo, Jia-Yi;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.1959-1964
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: To investigate the distribution of liver cancer mortality as well as its developing trend from 1991 to 2012, forecast the future five-year trend, and provide a basis for the comprehensive prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for liver cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe characteristics and distribution of liver cancer mortality. Trend surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality. Curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were used to predict and forecast future trends. Results: The mortality rate of liver cancer has constantly increased in China since 1991. Rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas, and in males are higher than in females. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the next 5 years. The age-specific mortality of liver cancer increases with age and peaks in the group of 80-84 years old. Geographical analysis showed the liver mortality rate was higher in the southeast provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and southwest regions like Guangxi Province. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend is predicted to continue in the future. Much better prevention and management of liver cancer is needed in high mortality areas (the southwestern and southeastern parts of China) and high mortality age groups (80- to 84-year-olds), especially in rural areas.