• 제목/요약/키워드: time exceedance

검색결과 48건 처리시간 0.029초

Application of first-order reliability method in seismic loss assessment of structures with Endurance Time analysis

  • Basim, Mohammad Ch.;Estekanchi, Homayoon E.;Mahsuli, Mojtaba
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 2018
  • Computational cost is one of the major obstacles for detailed risk analysis of structures. This paper puts forward a methodology for efficient probabilistic seismic loss assessment of structures using the Endurance Time (ET) analysis and the first-order reliability method (FORM). The ET analysis efficiently yields the structural responses for a continuous range of intensities through a single response-history analysis. Taking advantage of this property of ET, FORM is employed to estimate the annual rate of exceedance for the loss components. The proposed approach is an amalgamation of two analysis approaches, ET and FORM, that significantly lower the computational costs. This makes it possible to evaluate the seismic risk of complex systems. The probability distribution of losses due to the structural and non-structural damage as well as injuries and fatalities of a prototype structure are estimated using the proposed methodology. This methodology is an alternative to the prevalent risk analysis framework of the total probability theorem. Hence, the risk estimates of the proposed approach are compared with those from the total probability theorem as a benchmark. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement between the two methods while a significantly lower computational demand for the proposed approach.

Probabilistic seismic performance evaluation of non-seismic RC frame buildings

  • Maniyar, M.M.;Khare, R.K.;Dhakal, R.P.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.725-745
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, probabilistic seismic performance assessment of a typical non-seismic RC frame building representative of a large inventory of existing buildings in developing countries is conducted. Nonlinear time-history analyses of the sample building are performed with 20 large-magnitude medium distance ground motions scaled to different levels of intensity represented by peak ground acceleration and 5% damped elastic spectral acceleration at the first mode period of the building. The hysteretic model used in the analyses accommodates stiffness degradation, ductility-based strength decay, hysteretic energy-based strength decay and pinching due to gap opening and closing. The maximum inter story drift ratios obtained from the time-history analyses are plotted against the ground motion intensities. A method is defined for obtaining the yielding and collapse capacity of the analyzed structure using these curves. The fragility curves for yielding and collapse damage levels are developed by statistically interpreting the results of the time-history analyses. Hazard-survival curves are generated by changing the horizontal axis of the fragility curves from ground motion intensities to their annual probability of exceedance using the log-log linear ground motion hazard model. The results express at a glance the probabilities of yielding and collapse against various levels of ground motion intensities.

밭작물 소비수량에 관한 기초적 연구(III)-고추 및 가을 무우- (Basic Studies on the Consumptive Use of Water Required for Dry Field Crops (3) -Red Pepper and Radish-)

  • 김철기;김진한;정하우;최홍규;권영현
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.55-71
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    • 1990
  • The purpose of this study is to find out the basic data for irrigation plans of red pepper and radish during the growing period, such as total amount of evapotranspiration, coefficent of evapotranspiration at each growth stage, the peak stage of evapotranspiration, the maximum ten day evapotranspiration , optimum irrigation point, total readily available moisture and intervals of irrigation date. The plots of experiment were arranged with split plot design which were composed of two factors, irrigation point for main plot and soil texture for split plot, and three levels ; irrigation point with pH1.7-2.0, pF2.1-2.4 and pF2.5-2.8, at soil texture of sandy soil, sandy loam and silty clay for both red pepper and radish, with two replications. The results obtained are summarized as follows. 1.1/10 exceedance probability values of maximum total pan evaporation during growing period for red peppr and radish were shown as 663.6 mm and 251.8 mm. respectively, and those of maximum ten day pan evaporation for red pepper and radish, 67.1 mm and 46.9 mm, respectively. 2.The time that annual maximum of ten day pan evaporation can he occurred, exists at any stage between the middle of May and the late of August for red pepper, and at any stage between the late of August and the late September for radish. 3.The magnitude of evapotranspiration and its coefficient for red pepper was occurred large in order of pF1.7-2.0 pF2.1-2.4 and pF2.5~2.8 in aspect of irrigation point and the difference in the magnitude of evapotranspiration and of its coefficient between levels of irrigation point was difficult to be found out due to the relative increase in water consumption resulted from large flourishing growth at the irrigation point in lower water content for radish. In aspect of soil texture they were appeared large in order of sandy loam, silty clay and sandy soil for both red pepper and radish. 4.The magnitude of leaf area index was shown large in order of pF2.1-2.4, pF2.5-2.8, and pFl.7-2.0, for red pepper and of pF2.5-2.8, pF2.1-2.4, pFl.7-2.0 for radish in aspect of irrigation point, and large in order of sandy loam, silty clay, sandy soil for both red pepper and radish in aspect of soil texture 5.1/10 exceedance probability value of evapotranspiration and its coefficient during the growing period for red pepper were shown as 683.5 mm and 1.03, respectively, while those of radish, 250.3 mm and 0, 99. respectively. 6.The time that the maximum evapotranspiration of red pepper can be occurred is in the middle of August around the date of ninetieth to hundredth after transplanting, and the time for radish is presumed to be in the late of September, around the date of thirtieth to fourtieth after sowing. At that time, 1/10 exceedance probability value of ten day evapotranspiration and its coefficient for red pepper is assumed to be 81.8 mm and 1.22, respectively, while those of radish, 49, 7 mm and 1, 06, respectively. 7.Optimum irrigation point for red pepper on the basis of the yield of raw matter is assumed to be pFl.7-2.0 for sandy soil, pF2.5-2.8 for sandy loam, and pF2.1-2.4 for silty clay. while that for radish is appeared to be pF2.5-2.8 in any soil texture used. 8.The soil moisture extraction patterns of red pepper and radish have shown that maximum extraction rates exist at 7 cm deep layer at the beginning stage of growth in any soil texture and that extraction rates of 21 cm to 35 cm deep layer are increased as getting closer to the late stage of growth. And especially the extraction rates have shown tendency to be greatest at 21cm deep layer from the most flourishing stage of growth for red pepper and at the last stage of growth for radish. 9.The total readily available moisture on the basic of the optimum irrigation point become 3.77-8.66 mm for sandy soil, 28.39-34.67 mm for sandy loam and 18.40-25.70 mm for silty clay for red pepper of each soil texture used but that of radish that has shown the optimum irrigation point of pF2.5-2.8 in any soil texture used. 12.49-15.27 mm for sandy soil, 23.03-28.13 mm for sandy loam, and 22.56~27.57 mm for silty clay. 10.On the basis of each optimum irrigation point. the intervals of irrigation date at the growth stage of maximum consumptive use of red pepper become l.4 days for sandy soil, 3.8 days for sandy loam and 2.6 days for silty clay, while those of radish, about 7.2 days.

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Multi-material core as self-centering mechanism for buildings incorporating BRBs

  • Hoveidae, Nader
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.589-599
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    • 2019
  • Conventional buckling restrained braces used in concentrically braced frames are expected to yield in both tension and compression without major degradation of capacity under severe seismic ground motions. One of the weakness points of a standard buckling restrained braced frame is the low post-yield stiffness and thus large residual deformation under moderate to severe ground motions. This phenomenon can be attributed to low post-yield stiffness of core member in a BRB. This paper introduces a multi-core buckling restrained brace. The multi-core term arises from the use of more than one core component with different steel materials, including high-performance steel (HPS-70W) and stainless steel (304L) with high strain hardening properties. Nonlinear dynamic time history analyses were conducted on variety of diagonally braced frames with different heights, in order to compare the seismic performance of regular and multi-core buckling restrained braced frames. The results exhibited that the proposed multi-core buckling restrained braces reduce inter-story and especially residual drift demands in BRBFs. In addition, the results of seismic fragility analysis designated that the probability of exceedance of residual drifts in multi-core buckling restrained braced frames is significantly lower in comparison to standard BRBFs.

ROC 분석을 이용한 수질자동측정소 실시간 남조류 측정의 정확성 평가 및 경보기준 설정 (Accuracy Evaluation and Alert Level Setting for Real-time Cyanobacteria Measurement Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis)

  • 송상환;박종환;강태우;김영석;김지현;강태구
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2017
  • With the need to evaluate accuracy of real-time measurement of cyanobacterial fluorescence to determine cyanobacterial blooms, this research examined 357 paired data (2013-2016) comprising both microscopic toxic cyanobacterial cell counts and concurrent real-time cyanobacterial concentrations at 2 sites (YS1 and YS2) in Yeongsan river. The increase in real-time cyanobacterial concentration was closely associated with the exceedance of 5,000 cyanobacterial cells/ml (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.12) and 10,000 cells/ml (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04-1.12) at YS2 site. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the real-time cyanobacterial measurement at the YS2 site was 0.93, which indicates the measurement provides a high accurate detection of cyanobacterial blooms. On the ROC curve, the early alert levels of real-time cyanobacteria ranging $16-23{\mu}g$ chl-a/L would produce acceptable sensitivity of 79% and specificities greater than 90%. The real-time fluorescence measurement was found to be an accurate indicator of cyanobacteria and can serve as a tool for detecting toxic cyanobacterial bloom events in Youngsan river.

한국의 주요도시지점 기준강수량 초과 강수의 최근 증가경향 분석 (The Recent Increasing Trends of Exceedance Rainfall Thresholds over the Korean Major Cities)

  • 윤선권;문영일
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.117-133
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 전국의 8개 주요 도시지점 강우관측 자료를 대상으로 다양한 분류 기준을 적용하여 Quantile Regression (QR)에 의한 기준강수량 초과 강우의 선형추세분석과 Mann-Kendall, Sen 검정을 실시하였다. 분석결과 봄철과 여름철 강수의 뚜렷한 증가경향이 있으며, 가을철과 겨울철 강수는 감소하는 경향이 있음을 확인하였고, 폭우 사상은 최근 30년 평균 3.1~15% 증가 하였다. 또한, 연도별 발생강우의 Ranking에 따른 Top $10^{th}$ 백분위 강수의 3IQR (inter quartile range)의 최근증가경향을 분석한 결과, 대부분 지점에서 강수의 증가경향을 확인하였으며, Quantile 90%의 평균 백분위 강수량은 43.5mm, 증가경향은 0.1412mm/yr, Quantile 99%의 평균 백분위 강수량은 68.0mm, 증가경향은 0.1314mm/yr로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 매년 발생한 연최대치계열에 대한 분석뿐만 아니라 기준값 이상의 수문 사상정보에 대한 반영과 최근 변화하는 기후의 증가경향을 반영한 수공구조물 설계의 기초자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 사료된다.

한국 동해안의 변화특성 (A Study on Characteristics of Coastline Change in Eastern Coast Korea)

  • 이종태
    • 수산해양기술연구
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 1979
  • This paper concerns the receding of the eastern coastline of Korean peninsula at a macroscopic point of view, the result is as following. 1. Eastern coast is gradually developed from maturity stage to full maturity stage. 2. The coastline recession due to sea level rise is amounted to the receding distance, x=0.045 m per yr. 3. The author proposes another classification from the new view point, which is classified by comparing quantities between river supplying sediment loads, and the littoral drifting due to wave actions. According this, eastern coast is receding(Type Q-A), and we could find it's geomorphological characteristics. 4. The general piofile of eastern coast sand beach is erosional storm profile(Type I) which accompany offshore bar. 5. From the wave measuring data of eastern coast(Hoopo port), I can derive the linear regression line of the exceedance probability of wave height from the log-normal distribution. $z=O. 113+4.335 log_lo H, r=0.983.$ Above equation made it possible to estimate $\omega[=P(H>H_c)]for the effective wave height H_c=2. Om4, 4. Om and their corresponding values are considerable (7.8%, 0.3%) 6. Eastern coastline certainly have the tendency of erosive and receding, owing to the sea level rise, poor sediment source and effective wave actions. It's very desirable to survey coastline evolution for a long time systematically, in order to make more elaborate diagnosis.

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Effects of the isolation parameters on the seismic response of steel frames

  • Deringol, Ahmet H.;Bilgin, Huseyin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.319-334
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, an analytical study was carried out to propose an optimum base-isolated system for the design of steel structures equipped with lead rubber bearings (LRB). For this, 5 and 10-storey steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) were designed as Special Moment Frame (SMF). These two-dimensional and three-bay frames equipped with a set of isolation systems within a predefined range that minimizes the response of the base-isolated frames subjected to a series of earthquakes. In the design of LRB, two main parameters, namely, isolation period (T) and the ratio of strength to weight (Q/W) supported by isolators were considered as 2.25, 2.5, 2.75 and 3 s, 0.05, 0.10 and 0.15, respectively. The Force-deformation behavior of the isolators was modelled by the bi-linear behavior which could reflect the nonlinear characteristics of the lead-plug bearings. The base-isolated frames were modelled using a finite element program and those performances were evaluated in the light of the nonlinear time history analyses by six natural accelerograms compatible with seismic hazard levels of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The performance of the isolated frames was assessed in terms of roof displacement, relative displacement, interstorey drift, absolute acceleration, base shear and hysteretic curve.

초대형 부유식 구조물의 돌핀-펜더계류시스템에 관한 실험연구 (Experimental Study on a Dolphin-Fender Mooring System for Pontoon-Type Structure)

  • 김진하;조석규;홍사영;김영식
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제42권1호
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2005
  • in this paper a dolphin-fender moored pontoon-type floating structure in shallow water depth is studied focusing on mooring force. The pontoon-type floating structure is 500m long, 300m wide. The structure has partially non-uniform drafts of 2.0m and 3.0m. The employed mooring system is a guyed frame type dolphin-fender system. The 1/125 scale model fender system is made of rubber tube to have hi-linear load deflection characteristics. A series of model tests has been conducted focusing on motion and fender force responses in regular and irregular waves at KRISO's ocean engineering basin Non-linear numerical simulation of fender reaction force has been carried out and the results are compared with those of model tests. The simulated rigid body motion and mooring forces also have been compared with the test results.

Current Status and Applications of Integrated Safety Assessment and Simulation Code System for ISA

  • Izquierdo, J.M.;Hortal, J.;Sanchez Perea, M.;Melendez, E.;Queral, C.;Rivas-Lewicky, J.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.295-305
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    • 2017
  • This paper reviews current status of the unified approach known as integrated safety assessment (ISA), as well as the associated SCAIS (simulation codes system for ISA) computer platform. These constitute a proposal, which is the result of collaborative action among the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), University of Madrid (UPM), and NFQ Solutions S.L, aiming to allow independent regulatory verification of industry quantitative risk assessments. The content elaborates on discussions of the classical treatment of time in conventional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) sequences and states important conclusions that can be used to avoid systematic and unacceptable underestimation of the failure exceedance frequencies. The unified ISA method meets this challenge by coupling deterministic and probabilistic mutual influences. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated with some examples of its application to a real size plant.