• Title/Summary/Keyword: time based risk level

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UML based User-Centric Design for Evaluating of Risk Order (위험 순위 산정을 위한 UML 기반 사용자 중심 설계)

  • Woo, Chan-Il;Lee, Seung-Dae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.841-846
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    • 2011
  • Presently, the level of service(LOS) of the domestic roads are evaluated by using average speed of passing by vehicles. However, this method has been designed by considering the degree of congestion on the road only, without considering the reality of traffic safety. Therefore, for the LOS to serve as an index evaluating proper road design and operation, it should be able to deal with wider coverage than known factors which directly affects road users. Therefore the study wants to explore the concept of user cost, as a factor that covers traffic safety and flow, for evaluating roads. Also, the study wants to develop UML based user-centric design, not a one-time development method, for evaluating risk order of roads.

Numerical Study of Contaminant Pathway based on Generic-scenarios and Contaminant-based Scenarios of Vadose Zone (범용 시나리오 및 오염물질 시나리오에 기반한 불포화대 오염물질 경로에 대한 수치모의 연구)

  • Chang, Sun Woo;Kim, Min-Gyu;Chung, Il-Moon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.751-758
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    • 2019
  • This study tested various assumptions that simplified the configuration of the numerical model for unsaturated zone's contaminant transport to simulate the pathway to exposed point. This study investigated the contaminant migration through in the pollutant exposure pathway of vadoze zone for risk assessment of the contaminated site. For the purpose, generic scenarios as well as contaminant-based scenarios were simulated using the numerical code for transport of the contaminant in the pathway. The finite-difference one-dimensional transport with adsorption and biodegradation were considered, and it also assumed that the initial concentration was also depleted over time. The results of the generic-scenario show that as the groundwater infiltration rate decreases, the longer the path from the source to the groundwater level, the lower the concentration at the point of inflow into the groundwater level. In particular, in the case of high biodegradation rate and rapid depletion of pollutant sources, statistically outliers were found in the simulated results and generic scenarios was good at prediction.

Estimation of Peak Water Level Based on Observed Records and Assessment of Inundation in Coastal Area - A Case Study in Haeundae, Busan City - (관측자료에 기반한 미래 해수위 예측 및 연안지역 침수위험면적 분석 - 부산시 해운대구 일대를 대상으로 -)

  • Ahn, Saekyul;Lee, Dongkun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.445-456
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    • 2017
  • For impact assessment of inundation in coastal area due to sea level rise (SLR), model for estimating future peak water level was constructed using observed mean sea level (MSL), storm surge level (SSL) data and calculated tide level (TL) data. Based on time series analysis and quadratic polynomial model for SLR and Monte-Carlo simulation for IC, SSL and TL, 100-year return peak water level is expected to be 2.3, 2.6, 2.8m, respectively (each corresponding to year 2050, 2080, 2100). Further analysis on future potential inundation area showed U-dong, Yongho-dong, Songjeong-dong, Jaesong-dong to be at high risk.

Establishment of Inundation Probability DB for Forecasting the Farmland Inundation Risk Using Weather Forecast Data (기상예보 기반 농촌유역 침수 위험도 예보를 위한 침수 확률 DB 구축)

  • Kim, Si-Nae;Jun, Sang-Min;Lee, Hyun-Ji;Hwang, Soon-Ho;Choi, Soon-Kun;Kang, Moon-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2020
  • In order to reduce damage from farmland inundation caused by recent climate change, it is necessary to predict the risk of farmland inundation accurately. Inundation modeling should be performed by considering multiple time distributions of possible rainfalls, as digital forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration is provided on a six-hour basis. As building multiple inputs and creating inundation models take a lot of time, it is necessary to shorten the forecast time by building a data base (DB) of farmland inundation probability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish a DB of farmland inundation probability in accordance with forecasted rainfalls. In this study, historical data of the digital forecasts was collected and used for time division. Inundation modeling was performed 100 times for each rainfall event. Time disaggregation of forecasted rainfall was performed by applying the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which uses consistency of fractal characteristics to six-hour rainfall data. To analyze the inundation of farmland, the river level was simulated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The level of farmland was calculated by applying a simulation technique based on the water balance equation. The inundation probability was calculated by extracting the number of inundation occurrences out of the total number of simulations, and the results were stored in the DB of farmland inundation probability. The results of this study can be used to quickly predict the risk of farmland inundation, and to prepare measures to reduce damage from inundation.

A Study on the Conversion Time to Minimize of Transient Response during Inter-Conversion between Control Laws (제어법칙 간 상호 전환 시 과도응답 최소화를 위한 전환시간에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chongsup
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.12-18
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    • 2015
  • The inter-conversion between different control laws in flight has a lot of risk. The SWM(Switching Mechanism) including logic and stand-by mode is designed to analyze the transient response of aircraft during inter-conversion between different control laws, based on the in-house software for non-real-time and real-time simulation. The SWM applies the fader logic of TFS(Transient Free Switch) to minimize the transient response of an aircraft during the inter-conversion, and applies the reset '0' type of the stand-by mode to prevent surface saturation due to integrator effect in the disengaged flight control law. The transition time is also important to minimize the objectionable transient response in the inter-conversion, as well as the transition control law design. This paper addresses the results of non-real-time simulation for the characteristics of transient response to different transition time to select the adequate transient time, and the real-time pilot evaluation, using SSWM(Software Switching Mechanism) and HSWM(Hardware Switching Mechanism), which is met for Level 1 flying qualities and assures safety of flight.

SOA Vulnerability Evaluation using Run-Time Dependency Measurement (실행시간 의존성 측정을 통한 SOA 취약성 평가)

  • Kim, Yu-Kyong;Doh, Kyung-Goo
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.129-142
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    • 2011
  • Traditionally research in Service Oriented Architecture(SOA) security has focused primarily on exploiting standards and solutions separately. There exists no unified methodology for SOA security to manage risks at the enterprise level. It needs to analyze preliminarily security threats and to manage enterprise risks by identifying vulnerabilities of SOA. In this paper, we propose a metric-based vulnerability assessment method using dynamic properties of services in SOA. The method is to assess vulnerability at the architecture level as well as the service level by measuring run-time dependency between services. The run-time dependency between services is an important characteristic to understand which services are affected by a vulnerable service. All services which directly or indirectly depend on the vulnerable service are exposed to the risk. Thus run-time dependency is a good indicator of vulnerability of SOA.

Post-earthquake fire performance-based behavior of reinforced concrete structures

  • Behnama, Behrouz;Ronagh, Hamid R.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.379-394
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    • 2013
  • Post-earthquake fire (PEF) can lead to a rapid collapse of buildings damaged partially as a result of prior earthquake. Almost all standards and codes for the design of structures against earthquake ignore the risk of PEF, and thus buildings designed using those codes could be too weak when subjected to a fire after an earthquake. An investigation based on sequential analysis inspired by FEMA356 is performed here on the Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety and Collapse Prevention performance levels of structures, designed to the ACI 318-08 code, after they are subjected to an earthquake level with PGA of 0.35g. This investigation is followed by a fire analysis of the damaged structures, examining the time taken for the damaged structures to collapse. As a point of reference, a fire analysis is also performed for undamaged structures and before the occurrence of earthquake. The results indicate that the vulnerability of structures increases dramatically when a previously damaged structure is exposed to PEF. The results also show that the damaging effects of post-earthquake fire are exacerbated when initiated from the second and third floor. Whilst the investigation is made for a certain class of structures (conventional buildings, intermediate reinforced structure, 3 stories), the results confirm the need for the incorporation of post-earthquake fire into the process of analysis and design, and provides some quantitative measures on the level of associated effects.

Open BIM-based quantity take-off system for schematic estimation of building frame in early design stage

  • Choi, Jungsik;Kim, Hansaem;Kim, Inhan
    • Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.16-25
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    • 2015
  • Since construction projects are large and complex, it is especially important to provide concurrent construction process to BIM models with construction automation. In particular, the schematic Quantity Take-Off (QTO) estimation on the BIM models is a strategy, which can be used to assist decision making in just minutes, because 70-80% of construction costs are determined by designers' decisions in the early design stage. This paper suggests a QTO process and a QTO prototype system within the building frame of Open BIM to improve the low reliability of estimation in the early design stage. The research consists of the following four steps: (1) analyzing Level of Detail (LOD) at the early design stage to apply to the QTO process and system, (2) BIM modeling for Open BIM based QTO, (3) checking the quality of the BIM model based on the checklist for applying to QTO and improving constructability, and (4) developing and verifying a QTO prototype system. The proposed QTO system is useful for improving the reliability of schematic estimation through decreasing risk factors and shortening time required.

A Development of Nonstationary Frequency Analysis Model using a Bayesian Multiple Non-crossing Quantile Regression Approach (베이지안 다중 비교차 분위회귀 분석 기법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석 모형 개발)

  • Uranchimeg, Sumiya;Kim, Yong-Tak;Kwon, Young-Jun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 2017
  • Global warming under the influence of climate change and its direct impact on glacial and sea level are known issue. However, there is a lack of research on an indirect impact of climate change such as coastal structure design which is mainly based on a frequency analysis of water level under the stationary assumption, meaning that maximum sea level will not vary significantly over time. In general, stationary assumption does not hold and may not be valid under a changing climate. Therefore, this study aims to develop a novel approach to explore possible distributional changes in annual maximum sea levels (AMSLs) and provide the estimate of design water level for coastal structures using a multiple non-crossing quantile regression based nonstationary frequency analysis within a Bayesian framework. In this study, 20 tide gauge stations, where more than 30 years of hourly records are available, are considered. First, the possible distributional changes in the AMSLs are explored, focusing on the change in the scale and location parameter of the probability distributions. The most of the AMSLs are found to be upward-convergent/divergent pattern in the distribution, and the significance test on distributional changes is then performed. In this study, we confirm that a stationary assumption under the current climate characteristic may lead to underestimation of the design sea level, which results in increase in the failure risk in coastal structures. A detailed discussion on the role of the distribution changes for design water level is provided.

Surrogate Internet Shopping Malls: The Effects of Consumers' Perceived Risk and Product Evaluations on Country-of-Buying-Origin Image (망상대구점(网上代购店): 소비자감지풍험화산품평개대원산국형상적영향(消费者感知风险和产品评价对原产国形象的影响))

  • Lee, Hyun-Joung;Shin, So-Hyoun;Kim, Sang-Uk
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.208-218
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    • 2010
  • Internet has grown fast and become one of the most important retail channels now. Various types of Internet retailers, hereafter etailers, have been introduced so far and as one type of Internet shopping mall, 'surrogate Internet shopping mall' has been prosperous and attracting consumers in the domestic market. Surrogate Internet shopping mall is a unique type of etailer that globally purchases well-known brand goods that are not imported in the market, completes delivery in the favor of individual buyers, and collects fees for these specific services. The consumers, who are usually interested in purchasing high-end and unique but not eligible brands, have difficulties to purchase these items overseas directly from the retailers or brands in other countries due to worries of payment failure and no address available for their usually domestic only delivery. In Korea, both numbers of surrogate Internet shopping malls and the magnitude of sales have been growing rapidly up to more than 430 active malls and 500 billion Korean won in 2008 since the population of consumers who want this agent shopping service is also expending. This etail business concept is originated from 'surrogate-mediated purchase' and this type of shopping agent has existed in many different forms and also in wide ranges of context level for quite a long time. As marketers face their individual buyers' representatives instead of a direct contact with them in many occasions, the impact of surrogate shoppers on consumer's decision making has been enormously important and many scholars have explored various range of agent's impact on consumer's purchase decisions in marketing and psychology field. However, not much rigorous research in the Internet commerce has been conveyed yet. Moreover, since as one of the shopping agent surrogate Internet shopping malls specifically connect overseas brands or retailers to domestic consumers, one specific character of the mall's, image of surrogate buying country, where surrogate purchases are conducted in, may play an important role to form consumers' attitude and purchase intention toward products. Furthermore it also possibly affects various dimensions of perceived risk in consumer's information processing. However, though tremendous researches have been carried exploring the effects of diverse dimensions of country of origin, related studies in Internet context has been rarely executed. There have been some studies that prove the positive impact of country of origin on consumer's evaluations as one of information clues in product manufacture descriptions, yet studies detecting the relationship between country image of surrogate buying origin and product evaluations rarely undertaken regarding this specific mall type. Thus, the authors have found it well-worth investigating in this specific retail channel and explored systematic relationships among focal constructs and elaborated their different paths. The authors have proven that country image of surrogate buying origin in the mall, where surrogate malls purchase products in and brings them from for buyers, not only has a positive effect on consumers' product evaluations including attitude and purchase intention but also has a negative effect on all three dimensions of perceived risk: product-related risk, shipping-related risk, and post-purchase risk. Specifically among all the perceived risk, product-related risk which is arisen from high uncertainty of product performance is most affected (${\beta}$= -.30) by negative country image of surrogate buying origin, and also shipping-related risk (${\beta}$= -.18) and post-purchase risk (${\beta}$= -.15) get influenced in order. Its direct effects on product attitude (${\beta}$= .10) and purchase intention (${\beta}$= .14) are also secured. Each of perceived risk dimension is proven to have a negative effect on purchase intention through product attitude as a mediator (${\beta}$= -.57: product-related risk ${\rightarrow}$ product attitude; ${\beta}$= -.24: shipping-related risk ${\rightarrow}$ product attitude; ${\beta}$= -.44: post-purchase risk ${\rightarrow}$ product attitude) as well. From the additional analysis, the paths of consumers' information processing are shown to be different based on their levels of product knowledge. While novice consumers with low level of knowledge consider only perceived risk important, expert consumers with high level of knowledge take both the country image, where surrogate services are conducted in, and perceived risk seriously to build their attitudes and formulate decisions toward products more delicately and systematically, which is in line with previous studies. This study suggests several pieces of academic and practical advice. Precisely, country image of surrogate buying origin does affect on consumer's risk perceptions and behavioral consequences. Therefore a careful selection of surrogate buying origin is recommended. Furthermore, reducing consumers' risk level is required to blossom this new type of retail business whether its consumer are novices or experts. Additionally, since consumer take different paths of elaborating information based on their knowledge levels, sophisticated marketing approaches to each group of consumers are required. For novice buyers strong devices for risk mitigation are needed to induce them to form better attitudes and for experts selections of better and advanced countries as surrogate buying origins are advised while endorsement strategy for the site might work as a reliable information clue to all consumers to mitigate the barriers to purchase goods online. The authors have also explained that the study suffers from some limitations, including generalizability. In future studies, tests of and comparisons among different types of etailers with relevant constructs are recommended to broaden the findings.