• Title/Summary/Keyword: three reanalysis data

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Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer

  • Kim, Kyu-Rang;Seem, Robert C.;Park, Eun-Woo;Zack, John W.;Magarey, Roger D.
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2005
  • Weather data for disease forecasts are usually derived from automated weather stations (AWS) that may be dispersed across a region in an irregular pattern. We have developed an alternative method to simulate local scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease in a grid pattern. The system incorporates a simplified mesoscale boundary layer model, LAWSS, for estimating local conditions such as air temperature and relative humidity. It also integrates special models for estimating of surface wetness duration and disease forecasts, such as the grapevine downy mildew forecast model, DMCast. The system can recreate weather forecasts utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, which contains over 57 years of archived and corrected global upper air conditions. The highest horizontal resolution of 0.150 km was achieved by running 5-step nested child grids inside coarse mother grids. Over the Finger Lakes and Chautauqua Lake regions of New York State, the system simulated three growing seasons for estimating the risk of grape downy mildew with 1 km resolution. Outputs were represented as regional maps or as site-specific graphs. The highest resolutions were achieved over North America, but the system is functional for any global location. The system is expected to be a powerful tool for site selection and reanalysis of historical plant disease epidemics.

A study on the analyzing of uncertainty for actual evapotranspiration: flux tower, satellite-based and reanalysis based dataset (실제증발산 자료의 불확실성 파악에 관한 연구: flux tower, 인공위성 및 재분석자료)

  • Baik, Jongjin;Jeong, Jaehwan;Park, Jongmin;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the actual evapotranspiration products of Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) and MOD16, which are satellite- and reanalysis-based dataset, were validated at the flux tower sites (i.e., CFK and SMK) managed by Korea Institute of Hydrological Survey, and the uncertainty and correlation analysis were conducted using Triple Collocation (TC) method. The result of validation with the flux tower showed better agreement in the order of GLEAM> GLDAS>MOD16. At the result of three combinations (S1: flux tower vs. GLDAS vs. MOD16, S2: flux tower vs. GLDAS vs. GLEAM, S3: flux tower vs. GLEAM vs. MOD16), the order of best to worst is GLEAM, GLDAS, MOD16, and flux tower for CFK (GLDAS> GLEAM>MOD16>flux tower for SMK). Since the error variance and correlation coefficients of the flux tower show relatively worse performance in TC analysis than the other products, By applying TC method to three products (GLDAS vs. GLEAM vs. MOD16), the uncertainty of each dataset were evaluated at the Korean Peninsula, As a results, the GLDAS and GLEAM performed reasonable performance (low error variance and high correlation coefficient), whereas results of MOD16 showed high error variance and low correlation coefficient at the cropland.

Binary Forecast of Asian Dust Days over South Korea in the Winter Season (남한지역 겨울철 황사출현일수에 대한 범주 예측모형 개발)

  • Sohn, Keon-Tae;Lee, Hyo-Jin;Kim, Seung-Bum
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.535-546
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    • 2011
  • This study develops statistical models for the binary forecast of Asian dust days over South Korea in the winter season. For this study, we used three kinds of data; the rst one is the observed Asian dust days for a period of 31 years (1980 to 2010) as target values, the second one is four meteorological factors(near surface temperature, precipitation, snowfall, ground wind speed) in the source regions of Asian dust based on the NCEP reanalysis data and the third one is the large-scale climate indices. Four kinds of statistical models(multiple regression models, logistic regression models, decision trees, and support vector machines) are applied and compared based on skill scores(hit rate, probability of detection and false alarm rate).

Analysis of Seasonal Morphodynamic Patterns using Delft3D in Anmok Coast (수치모델링을 통한 안목해안에서 계절에 따른 지형변동 패턴 분석)

  • Kim, Mujong;Son, Donghwi;Yoo, Jeseon
    • Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.183-192
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, coastal areas have been suffering from coastal erosion, such as destruction of coastal roads and military facilities. In this study, the Delft3D model was used to analyze the sediment transport pattern due to seasonal characteristics of summer and winter waves in Anmok beach of the East coast. Typhoon and high waves are mainly are coming from ENE direction in the summer season and the flows occur in the northward. In winter, high waves are incident from NE and the flows occur in the southward. These seasonal patterns were simulated by using Delft3D model. As for model input, reanalysis wave data of the past 38 years were used, and the seasonal patterns were analyzed by dividing the whole year into summer and winter season. The grid point of the 38 year reanalysis data is far from the Anmok beach, so the three model grid systems (wide grid -> intermediate grid -> detailed grid) are constructed. Most of the flows in the NW direction occurred in summer, but erosion and deposition was alternated along the coastline. In winter, sediment was deposited near Gangnung Port due to the southern flow and the southern port. Strong winter waves compared to summer tend to cause deposition around Gangnung Port throughout the year.

Trends in the Climate Change of Surface Temperature using Structural Time Series Model (구조적 시계열 모형을 이용한 기온 자료에 대한 기후변화 추세 분석)

  • Lee, Jeong-Hyeong;Sohn, Keon-Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.199-206
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    • 2008
  • This study employs a structural time series method in order to model and estimate stochastic trend of surface temperatures of the globe, Northern Hemisphere, and Northeast Asia ($20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$, $100^{\circ}E{\sim}150^{\circ}E$). For this study the reanalysis data CRUTEM3 (CRU/Hadley Centre gridded land-surface air temperature Version 3) is used. The results show that in these three regions range from $0.268^{\circ}C$ to $0.336^{\circ}C$ in 1997, whereas these vary from $0.423^{\circ}C$ to $0.583^{\circ}C$ in 2007. The annual mean temperature over Northeast Asia has increased by $0.031^{\circ}C$ in 2007 compared to 1997. The climate change in surface temperatures over Northeast Asia is slightly higher than that over the Northern Hemisphere.

Vegetation Characteristics of Corylopsis gotoana var. coreana community at Mt. Baegun in Pocheon (포천 백운산 히어리 군락의 식생 특성)

  • Oh, Young-Ju;Bang, Jeong-Ho;Paik, Woen-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.447-455
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    • 2012
  • The phytosociological study was carried out to investigate the Corylopsis gotoana var. coreana community structural characteristics and soil environment of Mt. Baegun in Pochen. The vegetation data of total 9 relev$\acute{e}$s were analyzed by the Z$\ddot{u}$rich-Montpellier school's method. Three communities of Mt. Baegun were recognized : Corylopsis gotoana var. coreana - Quercus mongolica community, Corylopsis gotoana var. coreana - Carpinus laxiflora community, Corylopsis gotoana var. coreana typical community. The reanalysis to Corylopsis gotoana var. coreana community structural characteristics in south area classified 8 communities by literature. PCA analysis of Corylopsis gotoana var. coreana community distributed in the middle and southern area showed that the Corylopsis gotoana var. coreana community of the Mt. Jiri in the southern area was highly correlated with the one of Mt. Baegun in the middle area.

Comparisons of 1-Hour-Averaged Surface Temperatures from High-Resolution Reanalysis Data and Surface Observations (고해상도 재분석자료와 관측소 1시간 평균 지상 온도 비교)

  • Song, Hyunggyu;Youn, Daeok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2020
  • Comparisons between two different surface temperatures from high-resolution ECMWF ReAnalysis 5 (ERA5) and Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) observations were performed to investigate the reliability of the new reanalysis data over South Korea. As ERA5 has been recently produced and provided to the public, it will be highly used in various research fields. The analysis period in this study is limited to 1999-2018 because regularly recorded hourly data have been provided for 61 ASOS stations since 1999. Topographic characteristics of the 61 ASOS locations are classified as inland, coastal, and mountain based on Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. The spatial distributions of whole period time-averaged temperatures for ASOS and ERA5 were similar without significant differences in their values. Scatter plots between ASOS and ERA5 for three different periods of yearlong, summer, and winter confirmed the characteristics of seasonal variability, also shown in the time-series of monthly error probability density functions (PDFs). Statistical indices NMB, RMSE, R, and IOA were adopted to quantify the temperature differences, which showed no significant differences in all indices, as R and IOA were all close to 0.99. In particular, the daily mean temperature differences based on 1-hour-averaged temperature had a smaller error than the classical daily mean temperature differences, showing a higher correlation between the two data. To check if the complex topography inside one ERA5 grid cell is related to the temperature differences, the kurtosis and skewness values of 90-m DEM PDFs in a ERA5 grid cell were compared to the one-year period amplitude among those of the power spectrum in the time-series of monthly temperature error PDFs at each station, showing positive correlations. The results account for the topographic effect as one of the largest possible drivers of the difference between ASOS and ERA5.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF TMI-2 ACCIDENT SCENARIO USING SIMULATION BASED TECHNIQUES

  • Rao, R. Srinivasa;Kumar, Abhay;Gupta, S.K.;Lele, H.G.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.7
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    • pp.807-816
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    • 2012
  • The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident has been studied extensively, as part of both post-accident technical assessment and follow-up computer code calculations. The models used in computer codes for severe accidents have improved significantly over the years due to better understanding. It was decided to reanalyze the severe accident scenario using current state of the art codes and methodologies. This reanalysis was adopted as a part of the joint standard problem exercise for the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) - United States Regulatory Commission (USNRC) bilateral safety meet. The accident scenario was divided into four phases for analysis viz., Phase 1 covers from the accident initiation to the shutdown of the last Reactor Coolant Pumps (RCPs) (0 to 100 min), Phase 2 covers initial fuel heat up and core degradation (100 to 174 min), Phase 3 is the period of recovery of the core water level by operating the reactor coolant pump, and the core reheat that followed (174 to 200 min) and Phase 4 covers refilling of the core by high pressure injection (200 to 300 min). The base case analysis was carried out for all four phases. The majority of the predicted parameters are in good agreement with the observed data. However, some parameters have significant deviations compared to the observed data. These discrepancies have arisen from uncertainties in boundary conditions, such as makeup flow, flow during the RCP 2B transient (Phase 3), models used in the code, the adopted nodalisation schemes, etc. In view of this, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are carried out using simulation based techniques. The paper deals with uncertainty and sensitivity analyses carried out for the first three phases of the accident scenario.

A Study on Uterine Leiomyoma Patients' Experience of Total Hysterectomy (자궁근종 환자의 자궁적출경험)

  • Cho, Hyeon-Ae;Kwon, Hye-Jin;Yeoum, Soon-Gyo
    • Women's Health Nursing
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.349-361
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    • 1999
  • This study is designed to describe and analyze the experiences of hysterectomy. It also attempts to develop the practical theory of their experiences and thus suggest a fundamental frame that can help nurses broaden their clinical understanding of hysterectomy patients and take better care. The data was collected through interviewing the selected subjects. The subjects were five hysterectomy patients. They were interviewed at first hand by this researcher and recorded under their permissions. Each interview took one hour or two hours per interviewer. The data was collected through the interview. The method of "the Ground Theory" by Strauss & Corbin (1990) was used for data analysis. A total of 129 concepts were extracted from the data analysis. which were classified into 27 subcategories through reanalysis. The subcategories were grouped under 12 higher categories. During the process of the data analysis the following three propositions repeatedly appeared. (1) The higher importance of sexual life and pregnancy, the greater the patients' despair. The support system was not satisfied. The closed defense intensified their despair. They felt that the operation result was out of control. (2) The lower the importance of sexual life and pregnancy, the lesser the patients' despair. The support system proved to be highly satisfactory. As a result more favorably. (3) The lower physical change, the lesser importance of pregnancy. the lesser the patients' despair, the patients' thought turned out to be more positive, which, in turn, left the patients the less despaired. As a results the patients accept the operation result more favorably.

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Studies on the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall Using Prognostic Variables in Numerical Model (모델 예측변수들을 이용한 집중호우 예측 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Min;Jee, Joon-Beom;Min, Jae-sik;Lee, Yong-Hee;Chung, Jun-Seok;You, Cheol-Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.495-508
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    • 2016
  • In order to determine the prediction possibility of heavy rainfall, a variety of analyses was conducted by using three-dimensional data obtained from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) re-analysis data. Strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Heavy rainfall occurred in the cloud system with a thick convective clouds. The moisture convergence, temperature and potential temperature advection showed increase into the heavy rainfall occurrence area. The distribution of integrated liquid water content tended to decrease as rainfall increased and was characterized by accelerated convective instability along with increased buoyant energy. In addition, changes were noted in the various characteristics of instability indices such as K-index (KI), Showalter Stability Index (SSI), and lifted index (LI). The meteorological variables used in the analysis showed clear increases or decreases according to the changes in rainfall amount. These rapid changes as well as the meteorological variables changes are attributed to the surrounding and meteorological conditions. Thus, we verified that heavy rainfall can be predicted according to such increase, decrease, or changes. This study focused on quantitative values and change characteristics of diagnostic variables calculated by using numerical models rather than by focusing on synoptic analysis at the time of the heavy rainfall occurrence, thereby utilizing them as prognostic variables in the study of the predictability of heavy rainfall. These results can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of such precipitation. In the analysis of various case studies of heavy rainfall in the future, our study result can be utilized to show the development of the prediction of severe weather.