• Title/Summary/Keyword: theoretical probability

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Estimation of Sediment Concentration Factor based on Entropy Theory (엔트로피 이론 기반의 유사농도 인자 산정)

  • Kim, Yeong-Sik;Nam, Yoon-Chang;Jeon, Hae-Sung;Jeon, Kun-Hak;Choo, Yeon-Moon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.325-333
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    • 2020
  • Current methods of measuring the sediment concentration of natural streams can be affected by weather conditions and have lower reliability in bed-load sections due to mechanical limits. Theoretical methods have to be used to solve this problem, but they have low reliability compared to the measured values and diverse results for the bed-load sediment concentration. This study proposes a new way to reliably determine the bed-load sediment concentration from the relation with theoretical depth-integrated concentration based on the informational entropy concept. Sediment distribution shows a uniform probability distribution under maximized entropy conditions under some constraints, so a function can be calculated for the sediment distribution and depth-integrated concentration. The parameters of a stream were estimated by a nonlinear regression method using the concentration data from a past experiment. Equilibrium N (EN) was estimated using the relation between two different formulas proposed in this study, which can ease the estimation of both the total sediment distribution and depth-integrated sediment concentration with high reliable results with an average R2 of 0.924.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of Curved Beam with I-Shape Section (I-Shape 단면을 갖는 곡선 보의 지진 취약도 분석)

  • Jeon, Juntai;Ju, Bu-Seog;Son, Hoyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.379-386
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study was to the fragility evaluation of I-shape curved beam structure subjected to strong ground motions including Gyeongju and Pohang earthquakes Method: In particular, to conduct the analytical model, ABAQUS and ANSYS platform was used in this study. Furthermore, the analytical model using 3D Finite Element Model (FEM) was validated, in comparison to the theoretical solutions at the location of 025L, 05L, and 0.75L in static loading condition. In addition, in order to evaluate the seismic fragility of the curved beam structure, 20 seismic ground motions were selected and Monte-Carlo Simulation was used for the empirical fragility evaluation from 0.2g to 1.5g. Result: It was interesting to find that the probability of the system failure was found at 0.2g, as using 190 MPa limit state and the probability of the failure using 390 MPa limit state was starting from 0.6g. Conclusion: This study showed the comparison of the theoretical solution with analytical solution on I-shaped curved beam structures and it was interesting to note that the system subjected to strong ground motions was sensitive to high frequency earthquake. Further, the seismic fragility corresponding to the curved beam shapes must be evaluated.

Model for Unplanned Self Extubation of ICU Patients Using System Dynamics Approach (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 중환자실 환자의 비계획적 자가 발관 모델)

  • Song, Yu Gil;Yun, Eun Kyoung
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.280-292
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: In this study a system dynamics methodology was used to identify correlation and nonlinear feedback structure among factors affecting unplanned extubation (UE) of ICU patients and to construct and verify a simulation model. Methods: Factors affecting UE were identified through a theoretical background established by reviewing literature and preceding studies and referencing various statistical data. Related variables were decided through verification of content validity by an expert group. A causal loop diagram (CLD) was made based on the variables. Stock & Flow modeling using Vensim PLE Plus Version 6.0b was performed to establish a model for UE. Results: Based on the literature review and expert verification, 18 variables associated with UE were identified and CLD was prepared. From the prepared CLD, a model was developed by converting to the Stock & Flow Diagram. Results of the simulation showed that patient stress, patient in an agitated state, restraint application, patient movability, and individual intensive nursing were variables giving the greatest effect to UE probability. To verify agreement of the UE model with real situations, simulation with 5 cases was performed. Equation check and sensitivity analysis on TIME STEP were executed to validate model integrity. Conclusion: Results show that identification of a proper model enables prediction of UE probability. This prediction allows for adjustment of related factors, and provides basic data do develop nursing interventions to decrease UE.

Analysis of Probability and Extended Life Cycle of Strengthened Bridge Deck (성능향상된 교량 바닥판의 확률론적 해석 및 수명연장 분석)

  • Sim, Jong-Sung;Oh, Hong-Seob;Choi, Jang-Whan;Kim, Eon-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.635-642
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    • 2003
  • Although the strengthening effect of deteriorated concrete bridge decks has been studied by various authors, most researches are focused on the experimental works on the pulsating loading in laboratory in spite of deterioration of deck caused by moving vehicle loads. In this research, a theoretical live load model that was proposed to reflect an effect of moving vehicle loads is formulated from a statistical approach on the measurement of real traffic loads for various time periodsin Korea. Fatigue life and strengthening effect of strengthened bridge decks strengthened with either Carbon Fiber Sheet or Grid typed Carbon Fiber Polymer Plastic by the probabilistic and the reliability analyses are assessed. As a results, secondary bridge deck (DB18) strengthened with FRP ensures a sufficient fatigue resistance against the increased traffic loads as well as load carrying capacity in life cycle.

Evaluation of the Fatigue Life for Carbon/Epoxy Composite Material by the Residual Strength Degradation Analysis (탄소섬유/에폭시 복합재료의 잔류강도 저하해석에 의한 피로수명 평가)

  • 심봉식;성낙원;옹장우
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.1908-1918
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    • 1991
  • Fatigue tests have been carried out to measure the degradation of the residual strength and the fatigue life in carbon/epoxy (0/45/90/-45)$_{2s}$ composite materials. Theoretical predictions of residual strength and fatigue life were compared with experimental results. Distribution characteristics were studied using the probability of failure based on the cumulative distribution function and median rand. The static ultimate strength of carbon/epoxy composites used herein is observed to be relatively higher than that of existing similar composites ; while fatigue life is shorter due to the brittleness of matrix. The fatigue life obtained in these experiments is shorter than that estimated by residual strength degradation model when the stress level above 0.6 For the stress level of 0.6, the experimental value was abruptly increased. The cumulative distribution function for the static ultimate strength is well correlated to that for the strength converted from the measured fatigue life. Also, the predicted distribution of residual strength shows good agreement with the experimental results. Therefore, it is proven that the residual strength degradation model is reasonable.e.

Statistical Characteristics and Stochastic Modeling of Water Quality Data at the Influent of Daejeon Wastewater Treatment Plant (대전시 공공하수처리시설 유입수 수질자료의 통계적 특성 및 추계학적 모의)

  • Pak, Gijung;Jung, Minjae;Lee, Hansaem;Kim, Deokwoo;Yoon, Jaeyong;Paik, Kyungrock
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.38-49
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we analyze statistical characteristics of influent water quality in Daejeon waste water treatment plant and apply a stochastic model for data generation. In the analysis, the influent water quality data from year 2003 to 2008, except for year 2006, are used. Among water quality variables, we find strong correlations between BOD and T-N; T-N and T-P; BOD and T-P; $COD_{Mn}$ and T-P; and BOD and $COD_{Mn}$. We also find that different water quality variables follow different theoretical probability distribution functions, which also depends on whether the seasonal cycle is removed. Finally, we generate the influent water quality data using the multi-season 1st Markov model (Thomas-Fiering model). With model parameters calibrated for the period 2003~2005, the generated data for 2007~2008 are well compared with observed data showing good agreement in general. BOD and T-N are underestimated by the stochastic model. This is mainly due to the statistical difference in observed data itself between two periods of 2003~2005 and 2007~2008. Therefore, we expect the stochastic model can be applied with more confidence in the case that the data follows stationary pattern.

Developing the Purchase Conversion Model of the Keyword Advertising Based on the Individual Search (개인검색기반 키워드광고 구매전환모형 개발)

  • Lee, Dong Il;Kim, Hyun Gyo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2013
  • Keyword advertising has been used as a promotion tool rather than the advertising itself to online retailers. This is because the online retailer expects the direct sales increase when they deploy the keyword sponsorship. In practice, many online sellers rely on keyword advertising to promote their sales in short term with limited budget. Most of the previous researches use direct revenue factors as dependent variables such as CTR (click through rate) and CVI (conversion per impression) in their researches on the keyword advertising[14, 16, 22, 25, 31, 32]. Previous studies were, however, conducted in the context of aggregate-level due to the limitations on the data availability. These researches cannot evaluate the performance of keyword advertising in the individual level. To overcome these limitations, our research focuses on conversion of keyword advertising in individual-level. Also, we consider manageable factors as independent variables in terms of online retailers (the costs of keyword by implementation methods and meanings of keyword). In our study we developed the keyword advertising conversion model in the individual-level. With our model, we can make some theoretical findings and managerial implications. Practically, in the case of a fixed cost plan, an increase of the number of clicks is revealed as an effective way. However, higher average CPC is not significantly effective in increasing probability of purchase conversion. When this type (fixed cost plan) of implementation could not generate a lot of clicks, it cannot significantly increase the probability of purchase choice. Theoretically, we consider the promotional attributes which influence consumer purchase behavior and conduct individuals-level research based on the actual data. Limitations and future direction of the study are discussed.

Analysis of Link Error Effects in MANET Address Autoconfiguration Protocols

  • Kim, Sang-Chul;Chung, Jong-Moon
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.84-93
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    • 2009
  • This paper focuses on message complexity performance analysis of mobile ad hoc network (MANET) address autoconfiguration protocols (AAPs) in reference to link errors generated by mobile wireless nodes. An enhancement was made using a proposed retransmission limit, S, to be computed for error recovery (based on the link error probability), to measure message complexity of AAPs in reference to the link error probability, $P_e$. The control procedures for the retransmission limit have been included for each of the AAPs. Retransmission limit control is critical for efficient energy consumption of MANET nodes operating on limited portable energy. O-notation has been applied to analyze the upper bound of the number of messages generated by a MANET group of nodes. The AAPs investigated in this paper are strong duplicate address detection (DAD), weak DAD with proactive routing protocol (WDP), weak DAD with on-demand routing protocol (WDO), and MANETConf. Each AAP reacts different to link errors, as each AAP has different operational procedures. The required number of broadcasting, unicasting, relaying, and received messages of the nodes participating in a single-node joining procedure is investigated to asymptotically calculate the message complexity of each AAP. Computer simulation was conducted and the results have been analyzed to verify the theoretical message complexity bounds derived. The message complexity of WDP was lowest, closely followed byWDO, based on the simulation results and analysis of the message complexity under nominal situations. The message complexity of MANETConf was higher than WDO, and strong DAD resulted to be most complex among the four AAPs.

Analysis of Interference Effect on FS System from ESIM with Motion Characteristics (이동 특성에 기반한 ESIM이 FS 시스템에 미치는 간섭영향 분석)

  • Kang, Young-Houng;Oh, Dae-Sub
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.428-434
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, owing to the growing user demand for the two-way internet service based on the mobile global broadband communications, a new type of satellite terminal has been developed, known as ESIM(Earth Station in Motion). This service was required by Resolution 158(WRC-15) to study on the coexistence with the co-primary FS(Fixed Service) in 27.5-29.5 GHz as a FSS(Fixed Satellite Service) uplink. In this paper, the average received power on ESIM within -10 dB of beam width of FS and its outage probability was analyzed theoretically and also simulated to account for the azimuth angle with uniform distribution. From the results, it can be concluded that this theoretical analysis is very useful to analyze the interference from ESIM into FS based on the statistical and probabilistic method. Therefore, it is necessary to control the azimuth angle due to a moving terminal as well as the inclination angle of moving path, the operation hours, and the speed of ESIM to protect the co-primary FS.

Optimization of Cooperative Sensing in Interference-Aware Cognitive Radio Networks over Imperfect Reporting Channel

  • Kan, Changju;Wu, Qihui;Song, Fei;Ding, Guoru
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.1208-1222
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    • 2014
  • Due to the low utilization and scarcity of frequency spectrum in current spectrum allocation methodology, cognitive radio networks (CRNs) have been proposed as a promising method to solve the problem, of which spectrum sensing is an important technology to utilize the precious spectrum resources. In order to protect the primary user from being interfered, most of the related works focus only on the restriction of the missed detection probability, which may causes over-protection of the primary user. Thus the interference probability is defined and the interference-aware sensing model is introduced in this paper. The interference-aware sensing model takes the spatial conditions into consideration, and can further improve the network performance with good spectrum reuse opportunity. Meanwhile, as so many fading factors affect the spectrum channel, errors are inevitably exist in the reporting channel in cooperative sensing, which is improper to be ignored. Motivated by the above, in this paper, we study the throughput tradeoff for interference-aware cognitive radio networks over imperfect reporting channel. For the cooperative spectrum sensing, the K-out-of-N fusion rule is used. By jointly optimizing the sensing time and the parameter K value, the maximum throughput can be achieved. Theoretical analysis is given to prove the feasibility of the optimization and computer simulations also shows that the maximum throughput can be achieved when the sensing time and the parameter of K value are both optimized.