• Title/Summary/Keyword: the estimation of policy

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Calculation of Total Benefit by the Contingent Valuation Method for Cost-Benefit Analysis: Focusing on Income and Distance-Decay Effects (비용편익분석을 위한 조건부가치측정법에서의 총편익 산정: 소득효과 및 거리-소멸 효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jongyearn
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.43-80
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    • 2014
  • This study suggests a model for calculating total benefit rigorously to use the contingent valuation method (CVM) in cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Estimating households' willingness to pay through survey method, the study attempts to demonstrate if a respondent's income and the distance between a respondent's residence and the location of a target facility affect her willingness to pay. The estimation results from a structural model show that income and distance-decay effects exist and that the calculated total benefit varies largely when these effects are ignored. The study emphasizes the effects of income and distance-decay on the total benefit must be carefully considered in using CVM for CBA. Even though the total project cost is precisely estimated, the benefit/cost (B/C) ratio may differ largely when the total benefit is not correctly calculated. Also, an ad hoc model generates significantly different estimates from the utility difference model this study adopted. The difference in estimates suggests that the total benefit has to be estimated by a structural model. Finally, simulations are performed to check the validity of the model as well as to predict consequences when income and distance-decay effects are not properly treated. The results from simulations reveal it is not desirable to ignore those effects considering the perspectives of balanced regional development.

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Estimation of Optimal Harvest Volume for the Long-term Forest Management Planning using Goal Programming (장기산림경영계획의 목표수확량 산출을 위한 목표계획법의 적용)

  • Won, Hyun-Kyu;Kim, Young-Hwan;Kwon, Soon-Duk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.1
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    • pp.125-131
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    • 2009
  • To facilitate the sustainable forest management, Forest Service in Korea has assigned 2.9 million hectare forests as 'intensive management forests' and encouraged local governments to develop a strategic management plan for their forests. One of problems for the sustainable forest management in Korea is the skewed distribution of forest age classes. Currently the majority of forestlands in Korea is occupied by age classes III and IV. In this study, we intended to find an optimum harvest volume, which enable one to make the intensive management forest in Youngdong-Gun evenly distributed for the age classes and allow an even harvest volume through a 50 year time horizon. To develop an optimization model, we applied the goal programming technique which is adequate for a multi-purpose management planning. The results indicated that it is necessary to harvest 1.2 million cubic meters in each decade to achieve the most stable distribution of age classes for the study site. The harvest volume target resulted from this study would be used in a management planning or an associated policy making process in the future.

Technical Application and Analysis for Reduction of Water Loss in Water Distribution Systems (상수도 관망의 유수율 제고 기술의 적용 및 분석)

  • Kim, Ju-Hwan;Lee, Doo-Jin;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Woo, Hyung-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2009
  • Non-revenue water reduction(NRW) technologies are implemented to evaluate and manage leakages scientifically in water distribution systems under local governments. A development of quantitative leakage indicator by measuring minimum night flow, pressure control policy by installation of PRV(pressure reducing valve) and the establishment of leakage prevention schemes by residual life modeling of deteriorated water pipes are reviewed and studied. Estimation models of allowable leakage are developed by measuring and analyzing minimum night flow at residential and commercial area in Nonsan city, which is suggested from UK water industry and can improve an existing leakage indicator for the evaluation of non-revenue water. Also, pressure control method is applied and analyzed to Uti distribution area in Sacheon city in the operation aspect. As results, $466\;m^3/day$ of leakage can be reduced and it is expected that 113million won of annual cost can be saved. In the part of corrosion velocity and residual life assessment, non-linear prediction models of residual thickness are proposed by assessment of corrosion velocity based on exposure years, soil and water quality etc., since the deteriorated water pipe play a major role to increase leakage. It is expected that collection data and analyzing results can be applied effectively and positively to reduce non-revenue water by accumulating surveying data and verifying the results in the business field of water distribution systems under local governments.

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Estimation of Site Index by Species in Gyungi and Chungcheong Provinces Using a Digital Forest Site Map (경기ㆍ충청지역의 수치 산림입지도를 이용한 주요 수종의 산림생산력 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 구교상;김인호;정진현;원형규;신만용
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to develop site index equations by main species grown in Gyunggi and Chungcheong provinces using environmental factors obtained from a digital forest site map. For this, 28 environmental factors were regressed on site index by species. Four to five environmental factors by species were selected as independent variables in the best site index equations (coefficients of determination greater than 0.91). For these site index equations, three evaluation statistics, mean difference, standard deviation of difference, and standard error of difference, were applied to the data set. Site index equations by species relationships developed in this study effectively estimate forest productivity in the study area. However, the site index equation of Larix leptolepis showed a larger than expected bias between the estimated and the measured site index. The reason is not clear in this situation, but might be because of the small sample set. It will be necessary, therefore, to conduct more studies to determine the exact reason. It is also expected that the site index equations with a few environmental factors as independent variables could provide valuable information about species well suited to given site conditions. Site index equations for other species should be developed to establish a rational policy about the selection of best species for site conditions.

Technical Inefficiency in Korea's Manufacturing Industries (한국(韓國) 제조업(製造業)의 기술적(技術的) 효율성(效率性) : 산업별(産業別) 기술적(技術的) 효율성(效率性)의 추정(推定))

  • Yoo, Seong-min;Lee, In-chan
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.51-79
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    • 1990
  • Research on technical efficiency, an important dimension of market performance, had received little attention until recently by most industrial organization empiricists, the reason being that traditional microeconomic theory simply assumed away any form of inefficiency in production. Recently, however, an increasing number of research efforts have been conducted to answer questions such as: To what extent do technical ineffciencies exist in the production activities of firms and plants? What are the factors accounting for the level of inefficiency found and those explaining the interindustry difference in technical inefficiency? Are there any significant international differences in the levels of technical efficiency and, if so, how can we reconcile these results with the observed pattern of international trade, etc? As the first in a series of studies on the technical efficiency of Korea's manufacturing industries, this paper attempts to answer some of these questions. Since the estimation of technical efficiency requires the use of plant-level data for each of the five-digit KSIC industries available from the Census of Manufactures, one may consture the findings of this paper as empirical evidence of technical efficiency in Korea's manufacturing industries at the most disaggregated level. We start by clarifying the relationship among the various concepts of efficiency-allocative effciency, factor-price efficiency, technical efficiency, Leibenstein's X-efficiency, and scale efficiency. It then becomes clear that unless certain ceteris paribus assumptions are satisfied, our estimates of technical inefficiency are in fact related to factor price inefficiency as well. The empirical model employed is, what is called, a stochastic frontier production function which divides the stochastic term into two different components-one with a symmetric distribution for pure white noise and the other for technical inefficiency with an asymmetric distribution. A translog production function is assumed for the functional relationship between inputs and output, and was estimated by the corrected ordinary least squares method. The second and third sample moments of the regression residuals are then used to yield estimates of four different types of measures for technical (in) efficiency. The entire range of manufacturing industries can be divided into two groups, depending on whether or not the distribution of estimated regression residuals allows a successful estimation of technical efficiency. The regression equation employing value added as the dependent variable gives a greater number of "successful" industries than the one using gross output. The correlation among estimates of the different measures of efficiency appears to be high, while the estimates of efficiency based on different regression equations seem almost uncorrelated. Thus, in the subsequent analysis of the determinants of interindustry variations in technical efficiency, the choice of the regression equation in the previous stage will affect the outcome significantly.

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Estimation of the Expected Socio-economic Benefits of the Largescale Comprehensive Agricultural Development Project and Jointcost Allocation -In the Case of Kumgang Project Area- (대단위 농업종합개발사업의 사회경제적 기대편익 추정과 결합비용의 배분 -금강지구를 중심으로-)

  • Lim, Jae Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.159-176
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    • 1996
  • This study is aimed at reviewing the methods of joint cost allocation and allocating the joint cost of estuary dam with specially repect to Kumgang Large-scale Agricultural Comprehensive Development Project. Apart from the water resource development project propelled by Water Resource Development Corporation in connection with Law of Multipurpose Dam Development, the Largescale Comprehensive Agricultural Development Projects couldn't ins-titutionally be carried out cost allocation of common facilities, even though it were concerned with irrigation, municipal and industrical water supply, flood control, sightseeing and industrial zone development components. To decrease farmer's burden of the project costs and, operation and maintenance costs, the joint costs of common facilities like estuary dam included in agricultural development projects have to be allocated by suitable method as alternative cost-remaining benefit method and the analytical activity should be supported by revising the concerned laws as Rural Development and Promotion and, Rural Rearrangement conpatible with the law for multipurpose dam development. Kumgang Agricultural Comprehensive Development Project was selected as a case study for the estimation of socio-economic benefits by project components and joint cost allocation of the estuary dam. The main results of the study are as follows; Joint cost allocation and unit charges by components 1. The project area will be 25,554ha with total project cost of 624,860 million won including the estuary dam cost of 120,843 million won. The project costs were ex-pressed by 1994 constant price. 2. Total quantity of water was estimated 365 million tons which were consisted of 245 million tons for irrigation, 73 million tons for municipal water and 47 million tons for industrial water. 3. The rates of joint cost allocation were amounted to 34.2% for agriculture, 2.5% for sightseeing, 45.7% for transportation, 11.8% for M & I water supply and 5.8% for flood control respectively. 4. The unit financial charges by project components were estimated at 7.88 won per ton for irrigation, 16.11won for M & I water, 1,686won per vehicle one pass, 977won per Pyeong according to the capital recovery method. The financial charges using straitline method for depreciation were estimated at 7.88won per ton for irrigation, 9.12won per ton for M & I water, 624won per vehicle one pass for transportation and 331won per Pyeong for sightseeing area. 5. The unit economic charges by project components were estimated at 21.1 won per ton for irrigation, 15.2won for M & I water, 977won per vehicle one pass, 977won per Pyeong according to the capital recovery method. The economic charges using straitline method for depreciation were estimated at 11.72won per ton for irrigation, 8.61won per ton for M & I water, 331won per vehicle one pass for transportation. Policy recommendation 1. The unit operation and maintenance costs for irrigation water in the paddy field couldn't be imposed as the water resource cost untreated. 2. The dam costs including investment cost and O & M cost, as a joint cost, had to be allocated by each benefited components as transportation, M & I water supply, flood control, irrigation and drainage, and sightseeing. But the agricultural comprehensive project have been dealt as an irrigation project without any appraisal socio-economic benefits and any allocating the joint cost of estuary dam. 3. All the associated project benefits and costs must be evaluated based on accounting principle and rent recovery rate of the project costs and O & M costs should be regulated by the laws concerned. 4. The rural development and promotion law and rural rearrangement law have to be revised comprising joint cost allocation considering free rider problems. 5. The government subsidy for the agricultural base development project has to be covered all the project costs. In case of common facilities representing joint cost allocation problems, all the allocated casts for other purposes like transportation and M & I water supply etc. should be recovered for formation in investment fund for agricultural base development and to procure O & M costs for irrigation facilities.

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Unbilled Revenue and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts (진행기준 수익인식 방법과 재무분석가 이익예측 - 미청구공사 계정을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Bo-Mi;Park, Bo-Young
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.151-165
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the effect of revenue recognition by percentage of completion method on financial analysts' earnings forecasting information in order industry. Specifically, we examines how the analysts' earnings forecast errors and biases differ according to whether or not to report the unbilled revenue account balance and the level of unbilled revenue account balance. The sample consists of 453 firm-years listed in Korea Stock Exchange during the period from 2010 to 2014 since the information on unbilled revenue accounts can be obtained after the adoption of K-IFRS. The results are as follows. First, we find that the firms with unbilled revenue account balances have lower analysts' earnings forecast accuracy than the firms who do not report unbilled revue account balances. In addition, we find that the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts decreases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. Unbilled revenue account balances occur when the revenue recognition of the contractor is faster than the client. There is a possibility that managerial discretionary judgment and estimation may intervene when the contractor calculates the progress rate. The difference between the actual progress of the construction and the progress recognized by the company lowers the predictive value of financial statements. Our results suggest that the analysts' earnings forecasts may be more difficult for the firms that report unbilled revenue balances as applying the revenue recognition method based on the progress criteria. Second, we find that the firms reporting unbilled revenue account balances tend to have higher the optimistic biases in analysts' earnings forecast than the firms who do not report unbilled revenue account balances. And we find that the analysts' earnings forecast biases are increases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. This study suggests an effort to reduce the arbitrary adjustment and estimation in the measurement of the progress as well as the introduction of the progress measurement method which can reflect the actual progress. Investors are encouraged to invest and analyze the characteristics of the order-based industry accounting standards. In addition, the results of this study empower the accounting transparency enhancement plan for order industry proposed by the policy authorities.

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A Study of the Urban Tree Canopy Mean Radiant Temperature Mitigation Estimation (도시림의 여름철 평균복사온도 저감 추정 연구)

  • An, Seung Man;Son, Hak-gi;Lee, Kyoo-Seock;Yi, Chaeyeon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2016
  • This study aimed to estimate and evaluate the thermal mitigation of the urban tree canopy on the summer outdoor environment by quantitative use of mean radiant temperature. This study applied the SOLWEIG model based $T_{mrt}$ comparison method by using both (1) urban tree canopy presence examples and (2) urban tree canopy absence examples as constructed from airborne LiDAR system based three-dimensional point cloud data. As a result, it was found that an urban tree canopy can provide a decrease in the entire domain averaged daily mean $T_{mrt}$ about $5^{\circ}C$ and that the difference can increase up to $33^{\circ}C$ depending both on sun position and site conditions. These results will enhance urban microclimate studies such as indices (e.g., wind speed, humidity, air temperature) and biometeorology (e.g., perceived temperature) and will be used to support forest based public green policy development.

A Study on the Intercity Mode Choice Behavior of Daegu Citizens According to the Introduction of Gyeongbu High-Speed Railway (경부 고속철도 개통에 따른 대구시민의 지역 간 통행수단 선택행태 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Dae-Sik;Yuk, Tae-Suk;Kim, Sang-Hwang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.1 s.87
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2006
  • After the first opening of the KTX in April 2004, travel time between major cities has been dramatically reduced. The reduction rates range from 32% to 47%. Considering travel time reduction between major cities, this study concerned about the intercity travel impact of the KTX operation. This study aimed to analyze intercity mode choice behavior of Daegu Citizens according to the first opening of the KTX. This study takes place in two sections. These are (i) the section of KTX between Daegu and Seoul, and (ii) the section of KTX between Daegu and Daejeon. This study estimated empirical models for analyzing intercity mode choice behavior according to the first opening of the KTX. This study makes use of the data from travel survey from Daegu metropolitan area. The main part of the survey was carried out in the KTX Dong-Daegu station. The survey data includes the information on travel from Daegu to Daejeon and from Daegu to Seoul. In order to analyze intercity choice behavior according to the frist opening of the KTX, multinomial model structure is used. For the model specification, a variety of behavioral assumptions about the factors which affect the mode choice, were considered. From the empirical model estimation, it is found that OVTT(Out-of-Vehicle Travel Time), OVTC(Out-of-Vehicle Travel Cost), IVTT(In-Vehicle Travel Time), IVTC(In-Vehicle Travel Cost), travel frequency, travel purpose, sex, age, occupation. household income, individual income are significant in choosing intercity travel mode. However, it is found that the intercity nde choice behavior is different between (i) the section of KTX between Daegu and Seoul, and (ii) the section of KTX between Daegu and Daejeon. Furthermore, some policy implications are discussed in conclusion.

Trend/Cycle Decomposition Using DSGE Models (DSGE 모형을 이용한 추세와 경기순환변동분의 분해)

  • Hwang, Youngjin
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.117-156
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    • 2012
  • This paper decomposes and estimates trend/cyclical components of some key macro variables-GDP, inflation, and interest rate, using a simple DSGE model along with flexible trend specification. The extracted cyclical components of output and interest rate are similar to HP-filtered counterparts, despite some differences in persistence and volatility, while inflation resembles that from BK filtering. This implies that the usual practice of applying a single filtering method to the data of interest may be problematic. When the baseline model is extended to incorporate consumption habit and price indexation, habit turns out to be important in explaining the persistence of business cycles. Comparison of several alternative models shows that the usual practice of estimation of DSGE model using filtered data leads to biased results. Finally, various sensitivity analyses illustrate that (1) allowing for correlation between structural cyclical shocks and trend shocks and (2) including irregular components (in inflation rate) may deliver interesting/important implication for gap estimates.

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