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A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

The Relationship between Expression of EGFR, MMP-9, and C-erbB-2 and Survival Time in Resected Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (수술을 시행한 비소세포 폐암 환자에서 EGFR, MMP-9 및 C-erbB-2의 발현과 환자 생존율과의 관계)

  • Lee, Seung Heon;Jung, Jin Yong;Lee, Kyoung Ju;Lee, Seung Hyeun;Kim, Se Joong;Ha, Eun Sil;Kim, Jeong-Ha;Lee, Eun Joo;Hur, Gyu Young;Jung, Ki Hwan;Jung, Hye Cheol;Lee, Sung Yong;Lee, Sang Yeub;Kim, Je Hyeong;Shin, Chol;Shim, Jae Jeong;In, Kwang Ho;Kang, Kyung Ho;Yoo, Se Hwa;Kim, Chul Hwan
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.59 no.3
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    • pp.286-297
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    • 2005
  • Background : Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a common cause of cancer-related death in North America and Korea, with an overall 5-year survival rate of between 4 and 14%. The TNM staging system is the best prognostic index for operable NSCLC . However, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), matrix metalloproteinase-9(MMP-9), and C-erbB-2 have all been implicated in the pathogenesis of NSCLC and might provide prognostic information. Methods : Immunohistochemical staining of 81 specimens from a resected primary non-small cell lung cancer was evaluated in order to determine the role of the biological markers on NSCLC . Immunohistochemical staining for EGFR, MMP-9, and C-erbB-2 was performed on paraffin-embedded tissue sections to observe the expression pattern according to the pathologic type and surgical staging. The correlations between the expression of each biological marker and the survival time was determined. Results : When positive immunohistochemical staining was defined as the extent area>20%(more than Grade 2), the positive rates for EGFR, MMP-9, and C-erbB-2 staining were 71.6%, 44.3%, and 24.1% of the 81 patients, respectively. The positive rates of EGFR and MMP-9 stain for NSCLC according to the surgical stages I, II, and IIIa were 75.0% and 41.7%, 66.7% and 47.6%, and 76.9% and 46.2%, respectively. The median survival time of the EGFR(-) group, 71.8 months, was significantly longer than that of the EGFR(+) group, 33.5 months.(p=0.018, Kaplan-Meier Method, log-rank test).. The MMP-9(+) group had a shorter median survival time than the MMP-9(-) group, 35.0 and 65.3 months, respectively (p=0.2). The co-expression of EGFR and MMP-9 was associated with a worse prognosis with a median survival time of 26.9 months, when compared with the 77 months for both negative-expression groups (p=0.0023). There were no significant differences between the C-erbB-2(+) and C-erbB-2 (-) groups. Conclusion : In NSCLC, the expression of EGFR might be a prognostic factor, and the co-expression of EGFR and MMP-9 was found to be associated with a poor prognosis. However, C-erbB-2 expression had no prognostic significance.

Effects of Ovarian Function on the Hypophyseal Gonadotropin Secretion in Rats (흰쥐의 난소기능(卵巢機能)이 하수체(下垂體)의 성선(性腺) 날극(剌戟)호르몬 분비(分泌)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Seo, Kil Woong;Kim, Chong Sup;Park, Chang Sik;Lee, Kyu Seung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 1989
  • The study was carried out to elucidate the feedback mechanism on the hypothalamo-hypophyseal system from the functional changes of ovary in female rats. One hundred and forty-four mature female rats were lloted into the three groups; ovariectoimzed group, estradiol treated group and intact control group. The varies of 48 heads of rat were completely removed. Forty eight heads of rat were administered with $200{\mu}g$ of estradiol benzoate every 48 hours. Serum FSH, LH and prolactin levels were determined with radioimmunoassay method at 3,6,12,24 ours, and 5,10, and 15days after treatment. The rats were necropsied to measure the weights of hypophysis and to examin the histological changes in the organs. The results obtained were as follows: The weights of hypophysis were increased after ovariectomy and decreased after estradiol injection. The differences in hypophysis weights were significant between the group from 5 days after treatment. The histological changes in hypophysis were appeared from 5th day after ovariectomy. Proliferation and hypertrophy began to occur in basophilic from 10th day after ovariectomy, chromophobes were slightly hypertrophied and acidophilic cells were atrophied. In estradiol injected rats the histological findings were appeard to be contrary to those of ovariectomized rats. Serum FSH levels significantly changed after ovariectomy and estradiol injection and were higher in both the treated groups than in the intact control group. Within 18 hours after treatment the level was the highest in ovariectomized group, and thereafter the highest level was found in estradiol treated gorup. In ovariectomized rats the levels were rapidly increased 3 hours after treatment and maximum levels were found 18 hours after treatment. In estradiol treated rats the levels started to increase 18 hours after treatment and reached maximum levels 24 hours treatment. 4. Serum LH levels started to increase 3 hours after ovariectomy and estradiol injection and reached maximum levels 12 hours after ovariectomy and 24 hours after estradiol injection. There were significant differences in LH levels between the groups in each observation time. Up to 18 hours after treatment levels were higher in ovariectomized rats than in estradiol treated rats. but thereafter the levels were higher in estradiol treated rats than in ovariectomized rats. The multiple range test showed that a significant difference in LH levels was not found between ovariectomized group and estradiol treated group 18 hours and 5 days after treatment. 5. Serum prolactin levels were significantly changed after ovariectomy and estradiol injection. The levels were lower in ovariectomized rats than in intact control rats.

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A Study on the Technical and Administrative Innovation of Library Organization in the Perspective of the Contingency Theory (도서관조직의 기술혁신 및 행정혁신에 관한 조직상황론적 연구)

  • Hong Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.25
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    • pp.343-388
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    • 1993
  • The ability of any organization to innovate itself in a rapid change of environment means the existence of the organization. Innovative activity is achieved in different ways according to the objectives of organization. the characteristics of external environmental factors. and various attributes in organization. In the present study. all the existing approaches to the innovative nature of organization were synthetically compared to each other and evaluated: then. for a more rational approach. a research model was built and suggested by establishing the inclusive variables of the innovative nature of library organization and categorizing the types of such nature. Additionally. an empirical. analytical study on such a model was done. That is. paying regard to the fact that innovation has basically a close relation with the circumstantial factors of organization. synthetic, circumstantial relations were clarified. considering the external environmental factors and internal characteristics of organization. In the study. the innovation of library organization was seen in two parts i.e .. the feasible degree of technical innovation and the feasible degree of administrative innovation. Regarding the types of innovative implementation. according to the feasible degree of innovation, four types such as a stationary type. technic-oriented type, organization-oriented type. and technical-socio systematic type were classified. There were nine independent variables-i.e., the scale of organization. available resources of the organization, formalization, differentiation, specialization. decentralization, recognizant degree of the technical attribute. degree of response to the change of technical environment, and professional activities. There were three subordinate variables - i.e., technical innovation, administrative innovation. and the performance of organization. Through establishment of such variables, the factors which might influence the innovation of library organization were understood, and with the types of the innovative implementation of library organization being classified according to the feasible degree of innovation. the characteristics of library organization were reviewed in the light of each type. Also. the performance of library organization according to the types of the innovative implementation of library organization was analyzed. and the relations between the types of innovative implementation according to circumstantial variables and the performance of library organization were clarified. In order to clarify the adequacy of the research model in the methodology of empirical study, data were collected from 72 university libraries and 38 special libraries. and for a hypothetical test of the research model. an analysis of correlations, a stepwise regression analysis. and One Way ANOVA were utilized. The following are the major results or findings from the study 1) It appeared there is a trend that the bigger the scale of organization and available resources are, the more active the professional activity of the managerial class is, and the higher the recognizant degree of technical environment (recognizant degree of technical attributes and the degree of response t9 the change of technical environment) is, the higher the feasible degree of innovation becomes. 2) It appeared that among the variables influencing the feasible degree of technical innovation, the order from the variable influencing most was first, the recognizant degree of technical innovation: second, the available resources of organization: and third, professional activity. Regarding the variables influencing the feasible degree of administrative innovation from the most influential variable, it appeared they were the available resources of organization, the differentiation of organization. and the degree of response to the change of technical environment. 3) It appeared that the higher the educational level of the managerial class is, the more active the professional activity becomes. It seemed there is a trend that the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at the middle level(three years to six years of experience) was more active in research activity than the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at a higher level(more than ten years). Also, it appeared there is a trend that the lower the age of library managers is, the higher the recognizant degree of technical attributes becomes. and the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at the middle level (three years to six years of experience) recognized more affirmatively the technical aspect than the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at a higher level(more than 10 years). Also, it appeared that, when the activity of the professional association and research activity are active, the recognizant degree of technology becomes higher, and as a result. it influences the innovative nature of organization(the feasible degree of technical innovation and the feasible degree of administrative innovation). 4) As a result of the comparison and analysis of the characteristics of library organization according to the types of innovative implementation of library organization. it was indicated there is a trend that the larger the available resources of library organization, the higher the organic nature of organization such as differentiation. decentralization, etc., and the higher the level of the operation of system development, the more the type of the innovative implementation of library organization becomes the technical-socio systematic type which is higher both in the practical degrees of technical innovation and administrative innovation. 5) As a result of the comparison and analysis of the relations between the types of innovative implementation and the performance of organization, it appeared that the order from the highest performance of organization is the technical-socio systematic type, then the technic-oriented type, the organization­oriented type, and finally the stationary type which is lowest in such performance. That is, it demonstrated that, since the performance of library organization is highest in the library of the technical-socio systematic type while it is lowest in the library whose practical degrees in both technical innovation and administrative innovation are low, the performance of library organization differs significantly according to the types of innovative implementation of library organization. The present study has extracted the factors influencing innovation, classified systematically the types of innovative implementation, and inferred the synthetical, circumstantial correlations between the types and the performance of organization, and empirically inspected those factors. However, due to the present study's restrictive matters and the limit of the research design, results from the study should be more prudently interpreted. Also, the present study, as an investigative study of the types of innovative implementation, with few preceding studies, requires more complete hypothetical inference based on the results of the present study. In other words, if more systematical studies are given to understanding the relations, it will devote the suggestion and demonstration of a more useful theory.

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Effect of Byproducts Supplementation by Partically Replacing Soybean Meal to a Total Mixed Ration on Rumen Fermentation Characteristics In Vitro (대두박 대체 부산물 위주의 TMR 사료가 반추위 내 미생물의 In Vitro 발효특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Bae, Gui Seck;Kim, Eun Joong;Song, Tae Ho;Song, Tae Hwa;Park, Tae Il;Choi, Nag Jin;Kwon, Chan Ho;Chang, Moon Baek
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2014
  • This study was performed to evaluate the effects of replacing basic total mixed ration (TMR) with fermented soybean curd, Artemisia princeps Pampanini cv. Sajabal, and spent coffee grounds by-product on rumen microbial fermentation in vitro. Soybean in the basic TMR diet (control) was replaced by the following 9 treatments (3 replicates): maximum amounts of soybean curd (SC); fermented SC (FSC); 3, 5, and 10% FSC + fermented A. princeps Pampanini cv. Sajabal (1:1, DM basis, FSCS); and 3, 5, 10% FSC + fermented coffee meal (1:1, DM basis, FSCC) of soybean. FSC, FSCS, and FSCC were fermented using Lactobacillus acidophilus ATCC 496, Lactobacillus fermentum ATCC 1493, Lactobacillus plantarum KCTC 1048, and Lactobacillus casei IFO 3533. Replacing dairy cow TMR with FSC treatment led to a pH value of 6 after 8 h of incubation-the lowest value measured (p<0.05), and FSCS and FSCC treatments were higher than SC and FSC treatment after 6 h (p<0.05). Gas production was higher in response to 3% FSC and FSCC treatments than the control after 4-10 h. Dry matter digestibility was increased 0-12 h after FSC treatment (p<0.05) and was the highest after 24 h of 10% FSCS treatment. $NH_3-N$ concentration was the lowest after 24 h of FSC treatment (p<0.05). Microbial protein content increased in response to treatments that had been fermented by the Lactobacillus spp. compared to control and SC treatments (p<0.05). The total concentration of volatile fatty acids (VFAs) was increased after 6-12 h of FSC treatment (p<0.05), while the highest acetate proportion was observed 24 h after 5% and 10% FSCS treatments. The FSC of propionate proportion was increased for 0-10 h compared with among treatments (p<0.05). The highest acetate in the propionate ration was observed after 12 h of SC treatment and the lowest with FSCS 3% treatment after 24 h. Methane ($CH_4$) emulsion was lower with A. princeps Pampanini cv. Sajabal and spent coffee grounds treatments than with the control, SC, and FSC treatments. These experiments were designed to replace the by-products of dairy cow TMR with SC, FSC, FSCS, and FSCC to improve TMR quality. Condensed tannins contained in FSCS and FSCC treatments, which reduced $CH_4$ emulsion in vitro, decreased rumen microbial fermentation during the early incubation time. Therefore, future experiments are required to develop a rumen continuous culture system and an in vivo test to optimize the percentages of FSC, FSCS, and FSCC in the TMR diet of the dairy cows.

The Diagnostic Yield and Complications of Percutaneous Needle Aspiration Biopsy for the Intrathoracic Lesions (경피적 폐생검의 진단성적 및 합병증)

  • Jang, Seung Hun;Kim, Cheal Hyeon;Koh, Won Jung;Yoo, Chul-Gyu;Kim, Young Whan;Han, Sung Koo;Shim, Young-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.916-924
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    • 1996
  • Bacground : Percutaneous needle aspiration biopsy (PCNA) is one of the most frequently used diagnostic methcxJs for intrathoracic lesions. Previous studies have reponed wide range of diagnostic yield from 28 to 98%. However, diagnostic yield has been increased by accumulation of experience, improvement of needle and the image guiding systems. We analysed the results of PCNA performed for one year to evaluate the diagnostic yield, the rate and severity of complications and factors affecting the diagnostic yield. Method : 287 PCNAs undergone in 236 patients from January, 1994 to December, 1994 were analysed retrospectively. The intrathoracic lesions was targeted and aspirated with 21 - 23 G Chiba needle under fluoroscopic guiding system. Occasionally, 19 - 20 G Biopsy gun was used for core tissue specimen. The specimen was requested for microbiologic, cytologic and histopathologic examination in the case of obtained core tissue. Diagnostic yields and complication rate of benign and malignant lesions were ca1culaled based on patients' chans. The comparison for the diagnostic yields according to size and shape of the lesions was analysed with chi square test (p<0.05). Results : There are 19.9% of consolidative lesion and 80.1% of nodular or mass lesion, and the lesion is located at the right upper lobe in 26.3% of cases, the right middle lobe in 6.4%, the right lower lobe 21.2%, the left upper lobe in 16.8%, the left lower lobe in 10.6%, and mediastinum in 1.3%. The lesion distributed over 2 lobes is as many as 17.4% of cases. There are 74 patients with benign lesions, 142 patients with malignant lesions in final diagnosis and confirmative diagnosis was not made in 22 patients despite of all available diagnostic methods. 2 patients have lung cancer and pulmonary tuberculosis concomittantly. Experience with 236 patients showed that PCNA can diagnose benign lesions in 62.2% (42 patients) of patients with such lesions and malignant lesions in 82.4% (117 patients) of patients. For the patients in whom the first PCNA failed to make diagnosis, the procedure was repeated and the cumulative diagnostic yield was increased as 44.6%, 60.8%, 62.2% in benign lesions and as 73.4%, 81.7%, 82.4% in malignant lesions through serial PCNA. Thoracotomy was performed in 9 patients with benign lesions and in 43 patients with malignant lesions. PCNA and thoracotomy showed the same pathologic result in 44.4% (4 patients) of benign lesions and 58.1% (25 patients) of malignant lesions. Thoracotomy confirmed 4 patients with malignat lesions against benign result of PCNA and 2 patients with benign lesions against malignant result of PCNA. There are 1.0% (3 cases) of hemoptysis, 19.2% (55 cases) of blood tinged sputum, 12.5% (36 cases) of pneumothorax and 1.0% (3 cases) of fever through 287 times of PCNA. Hemoptysis and blood tinged sputum didn't need therapy. 8 cases of pneumothorax needed insertion of classical chest tube or pig-tail catheter. Fever subsided within 48 hours in all cases. There was no difference between size and shape of lesion with diagnostic yield. Conclusion: PCNA shows relatively high diagnostic yield and mild degree complications but the accuracy of histologic diagnosis has to be improved.

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Requirement and Perception of Parents on the Subject of Home Economics in Middle School (중학교 가정교과에 대한 학부모의 인식 및 요구도)

  • Shin Hyo-Shick;Park Mi-Soog
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.18 no.3 s.41
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is that I should look for a desirous directions about home economics by studying the requirements and perception of the high school parents who have finished the course of home economics. It was about 600 parents whom I have searched Seoul-Pusan, Ganwon. Ghynggi province, Choongcheong-Gyungsang province, Cheonla and Jeju province of 600, I chose only 560 as apparently suitable research. The questions include 61 requirements about home economics and one which we never fail to keep among the contents, whenever possible and one about the perception of home economics aims 11 about the perception of home economics courses and management. The collections were analyzed frequency, percent, mean. standard deviation t-test by using SAS program. The followings is the summary result of studying of it. 1. All the boys and girls learning together about the Idea of healthy lives and desirous human formulation and knowledge together are higher. 2. Among the teaching purposes of home economics, the item of the scientific principle and knowledge for improvements of home life shows 15.7% below average value. 3. The recognition degree about the quality of home economics is highly related with the real life, and about the system. we recognize lacking in periods and contents of home economics field and about guiding content, accomplishment and application qualities are higher regardless of sex. 4. The important term which we should emphasize in the subject of home economics is family part. 5. Among the needs of home economic requirement in freshman, in the middle unit, their growth and development are higher than anything else, representing 4.11, and by contrast the basic principle and actuality is 3.70, which is lowest among them. 6. In the case of second grade requirement of home economics content for parents in the middle unit young man and consuming life is 4.09 highest. 7. In the case of 3rd grade requirement of economics contents in the middle unit the choice of coming direction and job ethics is highest 4.16, and preparing meals and evaluation is lowest 3.50.

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An Analysis on the Conditions for Successful Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Focusing on the Maritime Aspects of Economic Sanctions (대북경제제재의 효과성과 미래 발전 방향에 대한 고찰: 해상대북제재를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Strategy21
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    • s.46
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2020
  • The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

Impact of Semantic Characteristics on Perceived Helpfulness of Online Reviews (온라인 상품평의 내용적 특성이 소비자의 인지된 유용성에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Yoon-Joo;Kim, Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.29-44
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    • 2017
  • In Internet commerce, consumers are heavily influenced by product reviews written by other users who have already purchased the product. However, as the product reviews accumulate, it takes a lot of time and effort for consumers to individually check the massive number of product reviews. Moreover, product reviews that are written carelessly actually inconvenience consumers. Thus many online vendors provide mechanisms to identify reviews that customers perceive as most helpful (Cao et al. 2011; Mudambi and Schuff 2010). For example, some online retailers, such as Amazon.com and TripAdvisor, allow users to rate the helpfulness of each review, and use this feedback information to rank and re-order them. However, many reviews have only a few feedbacks or no feedback at all, thus making it hard to identify their helpfulness. Also, it takes time to accumulate feedbacks, thus the newly authored reviews do not have enough ones. For example, only 20% of the reviews in Amazon Review Dataset (Mcauley and Leskovec, 2013) have more than 5 reviews (Yan et al, 2014). The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the usefulness of online product reviews and to derive a forecasting model that selectively provides product reviews that can be helpful to consumers. In order to do this, we extracted the various linguistic, psychological, and perceptual elements included in product reviews by using text-mining techniques and identifying the determinants among these elements that affect the usability of product reviews. In particular, considering that the characteristics of the product reviews and determinants of usability for apparel products (which are experiential products) and electronic products (which are search goods) can differ, the characteristics of the product reviews were compared within each product group and the determinants were established for each. This study used 7,498 apparel product reviews and 106,962 electronic product reviews from Amazon.com. In order to understand a review text, we first extract linguistic and psychological characteristics from review texts such as a word count, the level of emotional tone and analytical thinking embedded in review text using widely adopted text analysis software LIWC (Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count). After then, we explore the descriptive statistics of review text for each category and statistically compare their differences using t-test. Lastly, we regression analysis using the data mining software RapidMiner to find out determinant factors. As a result of comparing and analyzing product review characteristics of electronic products and apparel products, it was found that reviewers used more words as well as longer sentences when writing product reviews for electronic products. As for the content characteristics of the product reviews, it was found that these reviews included many analytic words, carried more clout, and related to the cognitive processes (CogProc) more so than the apparel product reviews, in addition to including many words expressing negative emotions (NegEmo). On the other hand, the apparel product reviews included more personal, authentic, positive emotions (PosEmo) and perceptual processes (Percept) compared to the electronic product reviews. Next, we analyzed the determinants toward the usefulness of the product reviews between the two product groups. As a result, it was found that product reviews with high product ratings from reviewers in both product groups that were perceived as being useful contained a larger number of total words, many expressions involving perceptual processes, and fewer negative emotions. In addition, apparel product reviews with a large number of comparative expressions, a low expertise index, and concise content with fewer words in each sentence were perceived to be useful. In the case of electronic product reviews, those that were analytical with a high expertise index, along with containing many authentic expressions, cognitive processes, and positive emotions (PosEmo) were perceived to be useful. These findings are expected to help consumers effectively identify useful product reviews in the future.

The Framework of Research Network and Performance Evaluation on Personal Information Security: Social Network Analysis Perspective (개인정보보호 분야의 연구자 네트워크와 성과 평가 프레임워크: 소셜 네트워크 분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Minsu;Choi, Jaewon;Kim, Hyun Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.177-193
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    • 2014
  • Over the past decade, there has been a rapid diffusion of electronic commerce and a rising number of interconnected networks, resulting in an escalation of security threats and privacy concerns. Electronic commerce has a built-in trade-off between the necessity of providing at least some personal information to consummate an online transaction, and the risk of negative consequences from providing such information. More recently, the frequent disclosure of private information has raised concerns about privacy and its impacts. This has motivated researchers in various fields to explore information privacy issues to address these concerns. Accordingly, the necessity for information privacy policies and technologies for collecting and storing data, and information privacy research in various fields such as medicine, computer science, business, and statistics has increased. The occurrence of various information security accidents have made finding experts in the information security field an important issue. Objective measures for finding such experts are required, as it is currently rather subjective. Based on social network analysis, this paper focused on a framework to evaluate the process of finding experts in the information security field. We collected data from the National Discovery for Science Leaders (NDSL) database, initially collecting about 2000 papers covering the period between 2005 and 2013. Outliers and the data of irrelevant papers were dropped, leaving 784 papers to test the suggested hypotheses. The co-authorship network data for co-author relationship, publisher, affiliation, and so on were analyzed using social network measures including centrality and structural hole. The results of our model estimation are as follows. With the exception of Hypothesis 3, which deals with the relationship between eigenvector centrality and performance, all of our hypotheses were supported. In line with our hypothesis, degree centrality (H1) was supported with its positive influence on the researchers' publishing performance (p<0.001). This finding indicates that as the degree of cooperation increased, the more the publishing performance of researchers increased. In addition, closeness centrality (H2) was also positively associated with researchers' publishing performance (p<0.001), suggesting that, as the efficiency of information acquisition increased, the more the researchers' publishing performance increased. This paper identified the difference in publishing performance among researchers. The analysis can be used to identify core experts and evaluate their performance in the information privacy research field. The co-authorship network for information privacy can aid in understanding the deep relationships among researchers. In addition, extracting characteristics of publishers and affiliations, this paper suggested an understanding of the social network measures and their potential for finding experts in the information privacy field. Social concerns about securing the objectivity of experts have increased, because experts in the information privacy field frequently participate in political consultation, and business education support and evaluation. In terms of practical implications, this research suggests an objective framework for experts in the information privacy field, and is useful for people who are in charge of managing research human resources. This study has some limitations, providing opportunities and suggestions for future research. Presenting the difference in information diffusion according to media and proximity presents difficulties for the generalization of the theory due to the small sample size. Therefore, further studies could consider an increased sample size and media diversity, the difference in information diffusion according to the media type, and information proximity could be explored in more detail. Moreover, previous network research has commonly observed a causal relationship between the independent and dependent variable (Kadushin, 2012). In this study, degree centrality as an independent variable might have causal relationship with performance as a dependent variable. However, in the case of network analysis research, network indices could be computed after the network relationship is created. An annual analysis could help mitigate this limitation.