• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.19
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• pp.8371-8376
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• 2014

Background: The use of statistical methods has become an imperative tool in breast cancer survival data analysis. The purpose of this study was to develop the best statistical probability model using the Bayesian method to predict future survival times for the black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients diagnosed during 1973-2009 in the U.S. Materials and Methods: We used a stratified random sample of black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patient data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional regression methods. Four advanced types of statistical models, Exponentiated Exponential (EE), Beta Generalized Exponential (BGE), Exponentiated Weibull (EW), and Beta Inverse Weibull (BIW) were utilized for data analysis. The statistical model building criteria, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) were used to measure the goodness of fit tests. Furthermore, we used the Bayesian approach to obtain the predictive survival inferences from the best-fit data based on the exponentiated Weibull model. Results: We identified the highest number of black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients in Michigan and the lowest in Hawaii. The mean (SD), of age at diagnosis (years) was 58.3 (14.43). The mean (SD), of survival time (months) for black non-Hispanic females was 66.8 (30.20). Non-Hispanic blacks had a significantly increased risk of death compared to Black Hispanics (Hazard ratio: 1.96, 95%CI: 1.51-2.54). Compared to other statistical probability models, we found that the exponentiated Weibull model better fits for the survival times. By making use of the Bayesian method predictive inferences for future survival times were obtained. Conclusions: These findings will be of great significance in determining appropriate treatment plans and health-care cost allocation. Furthermore, the same approach should contribute to build future predictive models for any health related diseases.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.23
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• pp.10505-10508
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• 2015

Background: Breast cancer is an important cause of death among women. One way of classifying different forms of breast cancer is by molecular features, usually in terms of the four subtypes: luminal A, luminal B, HER2-enriched, and triple negative. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the association between molecular subtypes and survival among breast cancer patients treated with radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The subjects were 272 breast cancer patients who had received treatment in the radiotherapy unit at Srinagarind Hospital, Thailand, between 1 January, 1999, and 31 May, 2009. The end of the study was 1 June, 2014. Overall survival was defined as the time elapsing between initial registration at the radiotherapy unit and death or the end of the study. Survival curves were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and a multivariate analysis was performed using Cox's proportional hazard regression model. Results: The patient mean age was $47.5{\pm}10.4$ at the time of diagnosis. Of the 272 patients, 146 (53.7%) were classified as luminal A, 12 (4.4%) as luminal B, 30 (11.0%) as HER2-enriched, and 84 (30.9%) as triple negative. The overall survival rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were 87.1%, 68.4% and 59.2%, respectively. According to molecular subtypes, HER2-enriched patients had the lowest 5-year survival rate (30.0 %, 95%CI: 15.02-46.55). The median follow-up time was 8.37 years. In the Cox model analysis a higher risk of death was found for patients with HER2-enriched ($HR_{adj}=3.34$, 95%CI:1.96-5.67), triple negative ($HR_{adj}=2.17$, 95%CI: 1.44-3.27), and stage IIlB ($HR_{adj}=2.20$, 95%CI: 1.16-4.17) cancers. Conclusions: The worst survival rates were among patients classified as HER2-enriched, triple negative and at stage IIIB. Early detection and an advanced treatment modality are needed to help these patients.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.1615-1621
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• 2013

Background: Matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) is related to tumor invasion and metastasis. However, the role of MMP-9 expression in breast cancer survival remains controversial. The purpose of this study was to accomplish a more accurate estimation of the association between MMP-9 expression and survival results in breast cancer patients through meta-analysis. Methods: A meta-analysis of published studies investigating the effects of positive MMP-9 expression on both relapse free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) was performed. Relevant literature was confirmed by searching electronic databases including PubMed, Ovid, EMBASE and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) before November 1, 2012. Individual hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted and pooled HRs with 95% CIs were used to evaluate the strength of the association between positive MMP-9 expression and survival results of breast cancer patients. Funnel plot and Egger's regression tests were used to evaluate publication bias. Heterogeneity and sensitivity analysis was also conducted. All the work was completed using STATA. Results: A total of 2,344 patients from 15 evaluative studies were finally included. Pooled HRs and 95% CIs suggested that MMP-9 overexpression had an unfavorable impact on both OS (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.41-2.04) and RFS (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.17-2.01) in breast cancer patients. There was no significant heterogeneity observed in the studies reported for OS (P=0.360, $I^2$=8.8%), but not RFS (P=0.002, $I^2$=67%). Publication bias was absent among the studies both in OS and RFS cases (t=-0.54, P=0.605 and t=1.71, P=0.131, respectively). Omission of any single study had little effect on the combined risk estimates on sensitivity analysis. Conclusion: The results of this meta-analysis suggest that positive MMP-9 expression confers a higher risk of relapse and a worse survival in patients with breast cancer. Larger prospective studies are now needed to evaluate the clinical utility of MMP-9 expression.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.394-405
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• 2016

Objectives: The survival outcomes of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs have not been systematically evaluated at the state level in India. This retrospective study assessed the survival rates and factors associated with survival among adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients in Andhra Pradesh, India. Methods: The present study used data from 139 679 HIV patients aged ${\geq}15$ years on ART who were registered from 2007 to 2011 and were followed up through December 2013. The primary end point was death of the patient. Mortality densities (per 1000 person-years) were calculated. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression models were used to estimate survival and explore the factors associated with survival. Results: The overall median follow-up time was 16.0 months (2.0 months for the deceased and 14.0 months for those lost to follow-up). Approximately 13.2% of those newly initiated on ART died during follow-up. Of those deaths, 56% occurred in the first three months. The crude mortality rate was 80.9 per 1000 person-years at risk. The CD4 count (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR],4.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.36 to 5.46 for < $100cells/mm^3$ vs. > $350cells/mm^3$), functional status (aHR, 3.05; 95% CI, 2.82 to 3.30 for bedridden vs. normal), and body weight (aHR, 3.69; 95% CI, 3.42 to 3.97 for <45 kg vs. >60 kg) were strongly associated with the survival of HIV patients. Conclusions: The study findings revealed that high mortality was observed within the first three months of ART initiation. Patients with poor baseline clinical characteristics had a higher risk of mortality. Expanded testing and counseling should be encouraged, with the goal of ensuring early enrollment into the program followed by the initiation of ART in HIV-infected patients.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.24
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• pp.10967-10970
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• 2015

Objective: To analyze the efficacy and survival associated factors of gefitinib combined with cisplatin and gemcitabine for advanced non-small cell lung cancer. Materials and Methods: A total of 57 patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), who received platinum-based chemotherapy regimens for more than 1 cycle, were treated with gefitinib combined with cisplatin and gemcitabine until disease progression. Efficacy, survival time and adverse reactions were observed. The Kaplan-Meier method was adopted for analysis of survival and Cox regression for associated influencing factors. Results: The patients were followed up until October 31, 2013, and the median follow-up time was 19 months. Of 57 patients, there were 4 (7.0%) with complete remission (CR), 8 (14.0%) with partial remission, 31 (54.4%) with stable disease, and 14 (24.6%) with disease progression. The remission rate was 21.1% and the disease control rate was 75.4%. The median progression-free survival (PFS) time and the median overall survival time were 10 months and 15.2 months. The one-year, two-year and three-year survival rates were 47.4%, 23.3% and 10.0%. Gender and pathological types were the independent risk factors influencing PFS time (P=0.028, P=0.009). Tumor pathological type and early efficacy were independent factors for the prognosis (P=0.018, P=0.000). Adverse reactions were mostly rashes of I~II degree and diarrhea and slightly increasing level of aminopherase. The skin adverse event incidence of III degree or above was 1.8% (1/57) and brain metastasis was foudn in 31.6% (18/57). Conclusions: Gefitinib combined with cisplatin andgemcitabine, is effective for patients with IIIb~IV NSCLC who received multiple cycles of chemotherapy.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.55 no.1
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• pp.10-19
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• 2022

Background: According to the eighth TNM (tumor-node-metastasis) staging system, the presence of separate tumor nodules in the same lobe is designated as a T3 descriptor. However, it remains unclear whether adjuvant chemotherapy confers survival advantages in this setting. Methods: We retrospectively identified 142 pathologic T3N0M0 patients with additional pulmonary nodules in the same lobe from a single-institutional database from 2004 to 2019. The main outcomes were overall survival and recurrence-free survival. Multivariable Cox regression was used to identify the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy while adjusting for other variables. Results: Sixty-one patients received adjuvant chemotherapy (adjuvant group) and 81 patients did not receive adjuvant therapy after surgery (surgery-only group). There were no demonstrable differences between the 2 groups regarding hospital mortality and postoperative complications, indicating that treatment selection had not significantly occurred. However, the use of adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved 5-year overall survival (70% vs. 59%, p=0.006) and disease-free survival (60% vs. 46%, p=0.040). A multivariable Cox model demonstrated that adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a survival advantage (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; p<0.001). In exploratory analyses of subgroups, the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy seemed to be insufficient in those with small main tumors (<4 cm). Conclusion: Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with better survival in T3 cancers with an additional tumor nodule in the same lobe. However, the role of adjuvant chemotherapy in patient subgroups with small tumors or those without risk factors should be determined via large studies.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.539-547
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• 2022

Objective: To investigate the association between functional tumor burden of peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) derived from diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and overall survival in patients with advanced ovarian carcinoma (OC). Materials and Methods: This prospective study was approved by the local research ethics committee, and informed consent was obtained. Fifty patients (mean age ± standard deviation, 57 ± 12 years) with stage III-IV OC scheduled for primary or interval debulking surgery (IDS) were recruited between June 2016 and December 2021. DWI (b values: 0, 400, and 800 s/mm²) was acquired with a 16-channel phased-array torso coil. The functional PC burden on DWI was derived based on K-means clustering to discard fat, air, and normal tissue. A score similar to the surgical peritoneal cancer index was assigned to each abdominopelvic region, with additional scores assigned to the involvement of critical sites, denoted as the functional peritoneal cancer index (fPCI). The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of the largest lesion was calculated. Patients were dichotomized by immediate surgical outcome into high- and low-risk groups (with and without residual disease, respectively) with subsequent survival analysis using the Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association between DWI-derived results and overall survival. Results: Fifteen (30.0%) patients underwent primary debulking surgery, and 35 (70.0%) patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by IDS. Complete tumor debulking was achieved in 32 patients. Patients with residual disease after debulking surgery had reduced overall survival (p = 0.043). The fPCI/ADC was negatively associated with overall survival when accounted for clinicopathological information with a hazard ratio of 1.254 for high fPCI/ADC (95% confidence interval, 1.007-1.560; p = 0.043). Conclusion: A high DWI-derived functional tumor burden was associated with decreased overall survival in patients with advanced OC.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.425-434
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• 2021

Objective: To investigate the potential value of ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT in predicting the survival of patients with primary tracheal malignant tumors. Materials and Methods: An analysis of FDG PET/CT findings in 37 primary tracheal malignant tumor patients with a median follow-up period of 43.2 months (range, 10.8-143.2 months) was performed. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to assess the associations between quantitative ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT parameters, other clinic-pathological factors, and overall survival (OS). A risk prognosis model was established according to the independent prognostic factors identified on multivariate analysis. A survival curve determined by the Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess whether the prognosis prediction model could effectively stratify patients with different risks factors. Results: The median survival time of the 37 patients with tracheal tumors was 38.0 months, with a 95% confidence interval of 10.8 to 65.2 months. The 3-year, 5-year and 10-year survival rate were 54.1%, 43.2%, and 16.2%, respectively. The metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), maximum standardized uptake value, age, pathological type, extension categories, and lymph node stage were included in multivariate analyses. Multivariate analysis showed MTV (p = 0.011), TLG (p = 0.020), pathological type (p = 0.037), and extension categories (p = 0.038) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Additionally, assessment of the survival curve using the Kaplan-Meier method showed that our prognosis prediction model can effectively stratify patients with different risks factors (p < 0.001). Conclusion: This study shows that ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT can predict the survival of patients with primary tracheal malignant tumors. Patients with an MTV > 5.19, a TLG > 16.94 on PET/CT scans, squamous cell carcinoma, and non-E1 were more likely to have a reduced OS.

• Journal of Gastric Cancer
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• v.5 no.3 s.19
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• pp.174-179
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• 2005

Purpose: The 5-year survival rate is the most useful parameter for evaluating the effect of management on most malignant tumors. Recurrence after a curative resection for gastric cancer occurs mostly within 3 years of the operation, which caused us to evaluate whether a 3-year disease-free survival (3DFS) can be substituted for a 5-year overall survival (5OS). Materials and Methods: We reviewed the medical records of 656 consecutive patients who had undergone a curative resection for gastric cancer To assess whether 3DFS represents 5OS, we used a simple linear regression with survival probability calculated by using the survival function. Results: Recurrence was found in 175 cases during the follow-up periods. The accumulative frequencies of recurrence at postoperative 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 46% (81 cases), 89% (156 cases), and 97% (170 cases), respectively. The correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination $(r^2)$ between 3DFS and 5OS were 0.87 and 0.76, respectively, and the regression equation was $5OS=0.18+(0.80{\times}3DFS)$. The r and $R^2$ according to the type of recurrence were 0.89 and 0.80 in peritoneal seeding, 0.88 and 0.78 in hematogeneous metastasis, and 0.86 and 0.73 in local recurrence, respectively. The r (0.77) and $r^2$ (0.60) were relatively lower in low stages (stage I and II) compared to r (0.88) and $r^2(0.77)$ in high stages (stage III and IV). Conclusion: The 3DFS is an excellent predictor of 5OS. Therefore, if we use the former as the treatment evaluating method, 2-year time reduction in assessing and reporting treatment results is expected.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.74-83
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• 2001

The purpose of this study was investigate to the influence of forest roads characteristics and environment factors on the soil erosion, stability and vegetation survival of cut slope in forest roads. The results obtained could be summarized as follows; 1. The correlated factors between slope erosion and variables in cut slope were altitude, convex, degree of slope, length of slope and soil depth. In the stepwise regression analysis, length of slope and soil hardness was a high significant and its regression equation was given by -89.6136 + 15.0667X14 + 16.6713X15($R^2$ = 0.6712). 2. The main factors influencing the stability of cut slope were significant in order of coverage, middle, convex, length of slope and north, and its discriminant equation was given by -1.019 + 0.064X22 - 0.808X8 - 0.622X24 + 0.742X11 - 0.172X14 - 0.545X6 ($R^2$ = 0.793). 3. The centroids value of discriminant function in the stability and unstability estimated to 1.244 and -1.348, respectively. The boundary value between two groups related to slope stability was -0.1038. The prediction rate of discriminant function for stability evaluation of was as high as 91.3%. 4. The dominant species of invasion vegetation on the cut slope consist with Carex humilis, Agropyron tsukushiense var. transiens, Calamagrostis arundinacea, Miscanthus sinensis var. purpurascens, and Ixeris dentata in survey area. The rate of vegetation invasion more increased by time passed. 5. The life form of invasion vegetation in cut slop showed to $H-D_1-R_{2,3}-e$ type of the hemicryptophyte of dormancy form, dissem inated widely by wind and water of dissminule type, moderate extent and narrowest extent of radicoid type, erect form of growth form. 6. The correlated factors between forest enviroment and coverage appeared north, passage years and middle position of slope at 5% level. The forest environment factors influencing the invasion plants in survey area were shown in order to altitude, passage years, rock(none), forest type(mixed) and stone amount. The regression equation was given by 17.5228 - 0.0911X3 + 3.6189X28 15.8493X22 19.8544X25 + 0.3558X26 ($R^2$ = 0.4026).