• Title/Summary/Keyword: supply uncertainty

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Optimal Routing and Uncertainty Processing using Geographical Information for e-Logistics Chain Execution

  • Kim, Jin Suk;Ryu, Keun Ho
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2004
  • The integrated supply chain of business partners for e-Commerce in cyber space is defined as Logistics Chain if the cooperative activities are logistics-related. Logistics Chain could be managed effectively and efficiently by cooperative technologies of logistics chain execution. In this paper, we propose a routing and scheduling algorithm based on the Tabu search by adding geographical information into existing constraint for pick-up and delivery process to minimize service time and cost in logistics chain. And, we also consider an uncertainty processing for the tracing of moving object to control pick-up and delivery vehicles based on GPS/GIS/ITS. Uncertainty processing is required to minimize amount of telecommunication and database on vehicles tracing. Finally, we describe the Logistics Chain Execution (LCE) system to perform plan and control activities for postal logistics chain. To evaluate practical effects of the routing and scheduling system, we perform a pretest for the performance of the tabu search algorithm. And then we compare our result with the result of the pick-up and delivery routing plan generated manually by postmen.

Optimization of Microalgae-Based Biodiesel Supply Chain Network Under the Uncertainty in Supplying Carbon Dioxide (이산화탄소 원료 공급의 불확실성을 고려한 미세조류 기반 바이오 디젤 공급 네트워크 최적화)

  • Ahn, Yuchan;Kim, Junghwan;Han, Jeehoon
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.396-407
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    • 2020
  • As fossil fuels are depleted worldwide, alternative resources is required to replace fossil fuels, and biofuels are in the spotlight as alternative resources. Biofuels are produced from biomass, which is a renewable resource to produce biofuels or bio-chemicals. Especially, in order to substitute fossil fuels, the research focusing the biofuel (biodiesel) production based on CO2 and biomass achieves more attention recently. To produce biomass-based biodiesel, the development of a supply chain network is required considering the amounts of feedstocks (ex, CO2 and water) required producing biodiesel, potential locations and capacities of bio-refineries, and transportations of biodiesel produced at biorefineries to demand cities. Although many studies of the biomass-based biodiesel supply chain network are performed, there are few types of research handled the uncertainty in CO2 supply which influences the optimal strategies of microalgae-based biodiesel production. Because CO2, which is used in the production of microalgae-based biodiesel as one of important resources, is captured from the off-gases emitted in power plants, the uncertainty in CO2 supply from power plants has big impacts on the optimal configuration of the biodiesel supply chain network. Therefore, in this study, to handle those issues, we develop the two-stage stochastic model to determine the optimal strategies of the biodiesel supply chain network considering the uncertainty in CO2 supply. The goal of the proposed model is to minimize the expected total cost of the biodiesel supply chain network considering the uncertain CO2 supply as well as satisfy diesel demands at each city. This model conducted a case study satisfying 10% diesel demand in the Republic of Korea. The overall cost of the stochastic model (US$ 12.9/gallon·y) is slightly higher (23%) than that of the deterministic model (US$ 10.5/gallon·y). Fluctuations in CO2 supply (stochastic model) had a significant impact on the optimal strategies of the biodiesel supply network.

The Impact of Global Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomics: The Case of Vietnam

  • TRAN, Ha Hong;NGUYEN, Vinh Thi Hong;TRINH, Nam Hoang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.263-269
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    • 2022
  • The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 along with the slow and unstable recovery of the global economy have raised concerns about the impact of global uncertainty on the macroeconomics of the countries. The paper used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the impact of global uncertainty shocks on Vietnam's economy from the period 2008-2022. We found that Vietnam's output dropped following the shock of global uncertainty, the peak was in the third month, and lasted for one year. Inflation in Vietnam had a rapid downturn in the first month, peaked in the seventh month, and took a long time to cease. When the economy experienced the shock of increased global uncertainty, Vietnam's policy interest rate was adjusted downward. Additionally, we included a long-term interest rate to consider the overall impact of monetary policy into account. A decreasing trend was also found with this rate. The global uncertainty shock effects acted as the aggregate demand shocks, reducing output and inflation as the uncertainty increases and vice versa, thus monetary policy can be used to regulate Vietnam's economy to deal with negative shocks without the trade-offs between output and inflation as aggregate supply shocks.

Uncertainty quantification of once-through steam generator for nuclear steam supply system using latin hypercube sampling method

  • Lekang Chen ;Chuqi Chen ;Linna Wang ;Wenjie Zeng ;Zhifeng Li
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.2395-2406
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    • 2023
  • To study the influence of parameter uncertainty in small pressurized water reactor (SPWR) once-through steam generator (OTSG), the nonlinear mathematical model of the SPWR is firstly established. Including the reactor core model, the OTSG model and the pressurizer model. Secondly, a control strategy that both the reactor core coolant average temperature and the secondary-side outlet pressure of the OTSG are constant is adopted. Then, the uncertainty quantification method is established based on Latin hypercube sampling and statistical method. On this basis, the quantitative platform for parameter uncertainty of the OTSG is developed. Finally, taking the uncertainty in primary-side flowrate of the OTSG as an example, the platform application work is carried out under the variable load in SPWR and step disturbance of secondary-side flowrate of the OTSG. The results show that the maximum uncertainty in the critical output parameters is acceptable for SPWR.

Evaluation of Irrigation Vulnerability Characteristic Curves in Agricultural Reservoir (농업용 저수지 관개 취약성 특성 곡선 산정)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Kim, Taegon;Choi, Jin-Yong;Kim, Han-Joong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.39-44
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    • 2012
  • Water supply capacity and operational capability in agricultural reservoirs are expressed differently in the limited storage due to seasonal and local variation of precipitation. Since agricultural water supply and demand basically assumes the uncertainty of hydrological phenomena, it is necessary to improve probabilistic approach for potential risk assessment of water supply capacity in reservoir for enhanced operational storage management. Here, it was introduced the irrigation vulnerability characteristic curves to represent the water supply capacity corresponding to probability distribution of the water demand from the paddy field and water supply in agricultural reservoir. Irrigation vulnerability probability was formulated using reliability analysis method based on water supply and demand probability distribution. The lower duration of irrigation vulnerability probability defined as the time period requiring intensive water management, and it will be considered to assessment tools as a risk mitigated water supply planning in decision making with a limited reservoir storage.

Uncertainty Factors affecting Bid Price from Pre-bid Clarification Document of Transport Construction Projects

  • Jang, YeEun;Kim, HaYoung;Yi, June-Seong;Lee, Bum-Sik
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.238-244
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    • 2022
  • Civil projects are associated with many uncertainties because they involve a long duration, many resources, a large area, and many supply chains. Therefore, the price of a civil project is not simply proportional to the quantity and unit price of the item but has a variable value, including uncertainty risk. This study investigates the influence of the uncertainty factors in the pre-bid clarification document on bid price formation during the project bidding phase. To this end, civil projects from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) were used as research data. This study randomly selected fifty sample data from each of twelve counties from 2008-to 2020: six hundred. The authors observed that each project sample had 0 to n query cases due to uncertainty. Then, this study examined the project uncertainty cases and categorized them into the following four uncertainty factors: 'conflict' (UF1), 'impossibility' (UF2), 'lack' (UF3), and 'missing' (UF4). Under the extracting process, the cases are classified into four uncertainty factors. With the project not containing any uncertainty factors as a control group, the project containing these uncertainty factors was designated as an experimental group. After comparing the bidder's price, the experimental group's bid price was higher than the control group's. This result suggests that uncertainty factors in bid documents induce bidders to set a high bid price as a defense against uncertainty.

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Improvement of Measuring Capacity of the DC High-voltage Divider for a National High-voltage Standard (국가 고전압 표준용 직류고전압 분압기의 측정능력 향상)

  • Lee, Sang-Hwa;Jang, Seok-Myeong;Choi, Jang-Young
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.63 no.11
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    • pp.1622-1625
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    • 2014
  • The main measurement uncertainty factors in DC high-voltage dividers for a national high-voltage standard are the measurement uncertainty of low-voltage arm and the stability of a high-voltage supply. In this study, the uncertainties by the two factors are greatly improved. As a result the measurement uncertainty for the DC high-voltage divider is reduced from $16{\times}10^{-6}(k=2)$ to $8{\times}10^{-6}(k=2)$ which is at international level.

Assessing Sustained Drought Impacts on the Han River Basin Water Supply System Using Stochastic Streamflows (추계학적 모의유량을 이용한 한강수계 용수공급시스템의 장기지속가뭄 영향 평가)

  • Cha, Hyeung-Sun;Lee, Gwang-Man;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.481-493
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    • 2012
  • The Uncertainty of drought events can be regarded as supernatural phenomena so that the uncertainty of water supply system will be also uncontrollable. Decision making for water supply system operation must be dealt with in consideration of hydrologic uncertainty conditions. When ultimate small quantity of precipitation or streamflow lasts, water supply system might be impacted as well as stream pollution, aqua- ecosystem degradation, reservoir dry-up and river aesthetic waste etc. In case of being incapable of supplying water owing to continuation of severe drought, it can make the damage very serious beyond our prediction. This study analyzes comprehensively sustained drought impacts on the Han River Basin Water Supply System. Drought scenarios consisted of several sustained times and return periods for 5 sub-watersheds are generated using a stochastic hydrologic time series model. The developed drought scenarios are applied to assess water supply performance at the Paldang Dam. The results show that multi-year drought events reflecting spatial hydrologic diversity need to be examined in order to recognize variation of the unexpected drought impacts.

The Effect of Factors Influencing RFID Adoption and Performance and the Moderating Effect of Environment Uncertainty within Supply Chain (공급사슬망 내부에서 RFID 채택과 성과에 영향을 주는 요인과 환경 불확실성의 조절효과에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyun;Song, Young-Mi
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.101-119
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    • 2011
  • A empirical study investigating firms' attitudes and behaviors regarding of RFID technology within supply chain is very limited. Thus, this study examines the determinants influencing firms' adoption and performance of RFID within the supply chain. Particularly, this study focus on the impacts of the companies' relationship characteristics, including strategic fit, interdependence, compatibility, and long-term orientation affection RFID adoption and performance within the supply chain. Furthermore, the study includes environment uncertainty as a moderating effect between relationship characteristics and RFID adoption. The proposed research model was tested using structural equation modeling from 227 employees. Results of this study support the proposed hypotheses. The implication of this study suggest a new theoretical framework explaining RFID adoption and performance with the supply chain.