• 천문학회지
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• 제50권2호
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• pp.21-27
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• 2017

The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.257-263
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• 2003

Oceanographic features around Korean waters related to the global change were studied by analysis of the longterm variation of water temperature, dissolved oxygen, sea level of the surface layer with 1$^{\circ}C$ temperature, spatial position of the subpolar front in the East Sea/Japan Sea (the East sea hereafter) and the Wolf Sunspot Number. With the global warming, the temperature of Korean waters has been increased 0.5∼1.0$^{\circ}C$ for 33years (1968∼2000). In case of the dissolved oxygen in the East Sea has been decreased 0.46$m\ell$/$\ell$. Year to year vertical fluctuations of the monthly anomalies of the surface layer with 1$^{\circ}C$water in the East Sea have predominant periods with 15years as the longterm variation of Arctic climate, 12 and 18years as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Spatial position of the subpolar front in the East Sea moved to northern part of the sea from the southern part of the sea with the increasing sea surface temperature. The relationship between the number of Wolf Sunspot and the anomalies of sea surface temperature was very closer after the late of 1980s than those before the early of 1980s in Korean waters.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.87.2-87.2
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• 2011

Proper motion of sunspots in several active regions was studied to detect their indicator on flare onset, using data from the Solar Flare Telescope at Mitaka (four flaring active regions), TRACE (e.g. NOAA 0424, M1.7 flare on 5 Aug. 2003) and Hinode (e.g. NOAA 10930, X3.4 flare on 13 Dec. 2006). The proper motion of individual sunspots was derived using a local correlation tracking method. As a result, we found that the sunspots that are located under or close to a part of chromospheric flaring patches showed a change in their moving direction prior to the flare onset. The change in their movements took place a half to two hours before the flare onset. On the other hand, sunspots in non-flaring areas or non-flaring active regions did not show this kind of change. It is likely, therefore, that if a sunspot shows the particular movement, a chromospheric flare is to occur in its nearby region. In the most active regions, the part of flare ribbons was located on an emerging bipolar pair of sunspots. The disturbance in the usual motion of the bipolar sunspots and in other sunspots as well can be interpreted as a sign of magnetic shear development leading to final magnetic energy buildup before its sudden release. We suggest that the change in sunspot motion in a short time scale prior to the flare onset can be regarded as a good indicator in predicting the onset timing and location of chromospheric flares.

• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.75.2-75.2
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• 2014

We have developed a set of daily solar flare peak flux forecast models using the multiple linear regression (MLR), the auto regression (AR), and artificial neural network (ANN) methods. We consider input parameters as solar activity data from January 1996 to December 2013 such as sunspot area, X-ray flare peak flux, weighted total flux $T_F=1{\times}F_C+10{\times}F_M+100{\times}F_X$ of previous day, mean flare rates of a given McIntosh sunspot group (Zpc), and a Mount Wilson magnetic classification. We compute the hitting rate that is defined as the fraction of the events whose absolute differences between the observed and predicted flare fluxes in a logarithm scale are ${\leq}$ 0.5. The best three parameters related to the observed flare peak flux are as follows: weighted total flare flux of previous day (r=0.5), Mount Wilson magnetic classification (r=0.33), and McIntosh sunspot group (r=0.3). The hitting rates of flares stronger than the M5 class, which is regarded to be significant for space weather forecast, are as follows: 30% for the auto regression method and 69% for the neural network method.

• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.75.1-75.1
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• 2014

Sunspot penumbrae show supersonic downflow patches along the periphery. These patches are believed to be the return channels of the Evershed flow. There was previous study to investigate their structure in detail using Hinode SOT/SP observations (M. van Noort et al. 2013) but their data sample was only two sunspots. To make general description it needs to check more sunspot sample. We selected 242 downflow patches of 17 sunspots using Hinode SOT/SP observations from 2006 to 2012. Height-dependent maps of atmospheric parameters of these downflows was produced by using HeLix which was height dependent LTE inversion code of Stokes profiles. The inversion code at high resolution allows for the accurate determination of small scale structures. The recovered atmospheric structure of three layers indicates that regions with very high downflow velocities contain very strong magnetic fields reaching up to 7kG. The higher downflow velocity patches have bigger patch size. Magnetic fields of downflow patches are more vertical while penumbra shows horizontal field and neighbor of downflow patches have opposite polarity. Temperature of downflow patches at highest layer have more strong value than penumbra at deepest layer. The direction of velocity of downflow patches at highest layer have two branches. These result shows that we can expect some heating precess in the middle of layer.

• 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.390-395
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• 2005

Sunspots are dark areas that grow and decay on the lowest level of the sun that is visible from the Earth. Shot-term predictions of solar activity are essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will survive for their useful lifetimes. This paper presents a parallel-structure fuzzy system(PSFS) for prediction of sunspot number time series. The PSFS consists of a multiple number of component fuzzy systems connected in parallel. Each component fuzzy system in the PSFS predicts future data independently based on its past time series data with different embedding dimension and time delay. An embedding dimension determines the number of inputs of each component fuzzy system and a time delay decides the interval of inputs of the time series. According to the embedding dimension and the time delay, the component fuzzy system takes various input-output pairs. The PSFS determines the final predicted value as an average of all the outputs of the component fuzzy systems in order to reduce error accumulation effect.

• 천문학회보
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.45.1-45.1
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• 2020

Light bridges (LBs) are relatively bright structures that divide sunspot umbrae into two or more parts. Chromospheric LBs are known to be associated with various activities including fan-shaped jet-like ejections and brightenings. Although magnetic reconnection is frequently suggested to be responsible for such activities, not many studies presented firm evidence to support the scenario. We carry out magnetic field measurements and imaging spectroscopy of a LB where fan-shaped jet-like ejections occur with co-spatial brightenings at their footpoints. We study their fine photospheric structures and magnetic field changes using TiO images, Near-InfraRed Imaging Spectropolarimeter data, and Hα data taken by the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope. As a result, we detect magnetic flux emergence in the LB that is of opposite polarity to that of the sunspot. The new flux cancels with the pre-existing flux at a rate of 5.6×1018 Mx hr-1. Both recurrent jet-like ejections and their footpoint brightenings are initiated at the vicinity of the magnetic cancellation, and show apparent horizontal extension along the LB at a projected speed of 4.3 km s-1 to form the fan-shaped appearance. Based on these observations, we suggest that the fan-shaped ejections may have resulted due to slipping reconnection between the new flux emerging in the LB and the ambient sunspot field.

• 천문학회보
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.79.4-80
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• 2021

Sunspots' subsurface structure is an important subject to explain their stability and energy transport. Previous studies suggested two models for the subsurface structure of sunspots: monolithic model and cluster model. However, it is not revealed which model is more plausible so far. We obtain clues about the subsurface structure of sunspots by analyzing the motion of umbral flashes observed by the IRIS Mg II 2796Å slit-jaw images (SJI). The umbral flashes are believed as shock phenomena developed from upward propagating slow magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. If the MHD waves are generated by convective motion below sunspots, the apparent origin of the umbral flashes known as oscillation center will indicate the horizontal position of convection cells. Thus, the distribution of the oscillation centers is useful to investigate the subsurface structure of sunspots. We analyze the spatial distribution of oscillation centers in the merged sunspot. As a result, we found that the oscillation centers distributed over the whole umbra regardless of the convergent interface between two merged sunspots. It implies that the subsurface structure of the sunspot is not much different from the convergent interface, and supports that many field-free gaps may exist below the umbra as the cluster model expected. For more concrete results, we should confirm that the oscillation centers determined by the umbral flashes accurately reflect the position of wave sources.

• 천문학회보
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• 제20권
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• pp.16-16
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• 1995