• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.90.1-90.1
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• 2011

We are developing empirical space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, and solar flares) forecast models based on solar information. These models have been set up with the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we present a concept of storm probability map depending on CME parameters (speed and location). Second, we suggested a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, directly observable from coronagraph observations, and demonstrated its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence was examined. Fourth, the relationship among coronal hole-CIR-storm relationship has been investigated, Fifth, the CIR forecast based on coronal hole information is possible but the storm forecast is challenging. Sixth, a new solar proton event (flux, strength, and rise time) forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameter (speed, angular width, and longitude) has been suggested. Seventh, we are examining the rates and probability of solar flares depending on sunspot McIntosh classification and its area change (as a proxy of flux change). Our results show that flux emergence greatly enhances the flare probability, about two times for flare productive sunspot regions.

• 한국위성정보통신학회논문지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.107-111
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• 2011

세계2차대전을 통해 태양폭발은 레이더시스템에 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 1942년 2월 28일의 전파교란 현상은 태양활동의 극대기에 증가한 우주 광선(cosmic ray)에 의한 것이었다. 이러한 사실들이 밝혀지면서 태양폭발 및 태양 입자 활동에 관한 연구가 활발히 이루어졌다. 태양폭발이 우주선에 미치는 영향, 극 운행 비행기에 미치는 영향, 레이더 시스템에 미치는 영향, 무선통신시스템에 미치는 영향 등에 대한 연구가 다양하게 이루어 지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 지난 40여년 간의 태양전파 관측자료를 분석하여 태양폭발에 의해 무선통신에 미치는 영향과 태양활동주기간의 상관관계를 분석하였다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2015

It is well known that the space radiation dose over the polar route should be carefully considered especially when the space weather shows sudden disturbances such as CME and flares. The National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) recently established a basis for a space radiation service for the public by developing a space radiation prediction model and heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model. The HCP value is used as a critical input value of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose. The CARI-6/6M is the most widely used and confidential program that is officially provided by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The HCP value is given one month late in the FAA official webpage, making it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this limitation regarding time delay, we developed a HCP prediction model based on the sunspot number variation. In this paper, we focus on the purpose and process of our HCP prediction model development. Finally, we find the highest correlation coefficient of 0.9 between the monthly sunspot number and the HCP value with an eight month time shift.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.149-157
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• 2019

In this study, we investigate the associations between the solar variability and teleconnection indices, which influence atmospheric circulation and subsequently, the spatial distribution of the global pressure system. A study of the link between the Sun and a large-scale mode of climate variability, which may indirectly affect the Earth's climate and weather, is crucial because the feedbacks of solar variability to an autogenic or internal process should be considered with due care. We have calculated the normalized cross-correlations of the total sunspot area, the total sunspot number, and the solar North-South asymmetry with teleconnection indices. We have found that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) index is anti-correlated with both solar activity and the solar North-South asymmetry, with a ~3-year lag. This finding not only agrees with the fact that El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ episodes are likely to occur around the solar maximum, but also explains why tropical cyclones occurring in the solar maximum periods and in El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods appear similar. Conversely, other teleconnection indices, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) index, and the Pacific-North American (PNA) index, are weakly or only slightly correlated with solar activity, which emphasizes that response of terrestrial climate and weather to solar variability are local in space. It is also found that correlations between teleconnection indices and solar activity are as good as correlations resulting from the teleconnection indices themselves.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.423-430
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• 2023

One recent notable method for real-time elimination of ionospheric errors in geodetic applications is the Predicted Global Ionosphere Map (PGIM). This study analyzes the level of accuracy achievable when applying the PGIM provided by the Center for Orbit Determination of Europe (CODE) to the Korean Peninsula region. First, an examination of the types and lead times of PGIMs provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) Analysis Center revealed that CODE's two-day prediction model, C2PG, is available approximately eight hours before midnight. This suggests higher real-time usability compared to the one-day prediction model, C1PG. When evaluating the accuracy of PGIM by assuming the final output of the Global Ionosphere Map (GIM) as a reference, it was found that on days with low solar activity, the error is within ~2 TECU, and on days with high solar activity, the error reaches ~3 TECU. A comparison of the errors introduced when using PGIM and three solar activity indices-Kp index, F10.7, and sunspot number-revealed that F10.7 exhibits a relatively high correlation coefficient compared to Kp-index and sunspot number, confirming the effectiveness of the prediction model.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권2호
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• pp.42.1-42.1
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• 2016

The formation process and the dynamical properties of a large-scale quasi-circular flare ribbon were investigated using the SDO AIA and HMI data along with data from RHESSI and SOT. Within one hour time interval, two subsequent M-class flares were detected from the NOAA 12371 that had a ${\beta}{\gamma}{\delta}$ configuration with one bipolar sunspot group in the east and one unipolar spot in the west embedded in a decayed magnetic field. Earlier M2.0 flare was associated with a coronal loop eruption, and a two-ribbon structure formed within the bipolar sunspot group. On the other hand, the later M2.6 flare was associated with a halo CME, and a quasi-circular ribbon developed encircling the full active region. The observed quasi-circular ribbon was strikingly large in size spanning 650" in north-south and 500" in east-west direction. It showed the well-known sequential brightening in the clockwise direction during the decay phase of the M2.6 flare at the estimated speed of 160.7 km s-1. The quasi-circular ribbon also showed the radial expansion, especially in the southern part. Interestingly, at the time of the later M2.6 flare, the third flare ribbon parallel to the early two-ribbon structure also developed near the unipolar sunspot, then showed a typical separation in pair with the eastern most ribbon of the early two ribbons. The potential field reconstruction based on the PFSS model showed a fan shaped magnetic configuration including fan-like field lines stemming from the unipolar spot and fanning out toward the background decayed field. This large-scale fan-like field overarched full active region, and the footpoints of fan-like field lines were co-spatial with the observed quasi-circular ribbon. From the NLFF magnetic field reconstruction, we confirmed the existence of a twisted flux rope structure in the bipolar spot group before the first M2.0 flare. Hard X-ray emission signatures were detected at the site of twisted flux rope during the pre-flare phase of the M2.0 flare. Based on the analysis of both two-ribbon structure and quasi-circular ribbon, we suggest that a tether-cutting reconnection between sheared arcade overarching the twisted flux rope embedded in a fan-like magnetic field may have triggered the first M2.0 flare, then secondary M2.6 flare was introduced by the fan-spine reconnection because of the interaction between the expanding field and the nearby quasi-null and formed the observed large-scale quasi-circular flare ribbon.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2004년도 한국우주과학회보 제13권1호
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• pp.36-36
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• 2004

Ionospheric data from DGS-256 ionosonde operated by Radio Research Laboratory in Anyang archived during 1991-2002 was extracted and analyzed firstly in Korea. Daily, monthly and annual variations of the 12-year F2 layer critical frequency(foF2) are derived to investigate the statistical ionospheric characteristics during one complete solar cycle. Positive correlation between the mean values of 24-hourly monthly median foF2 and the monthly smoothed sunspot number(SSN) for the same period is found. (omitted)

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2005년도 한국우주과학회보 제14권2호
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• pp.52-52
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• 2005

• 천문학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.37-39
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• 1982

High spatial and spectral resolution observations have been made over a sunspot (SPO 6403) with the Echelle Spectrograph at the Vacuum Tower Telescope, Sacramento Peak Observatory. Our observed spectra, scanned with SPO's fast microdensitometer, clearly show strengthening of $C_2$ lines in the penumbra relative to the photosphere and much weakening in the umbra in agreement with the predictions made by our molecular equilibrium calculations (Lee et al. 1981).

• 천문학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.79-87
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• 1981

Theoretical profiles of selected rotational lines of $C_2$ CH, CN, TiO and MgH are computed by using the current models of sunspot unbrae and penumbrae. It is found that the lines of the diatomic carbides are enhanced in penumbrae relative to umbrae, while MgH lines are more strongly enhanced in umbrae than in penumbrae and the quiet photosphere. The results are discussed with respect to selecting lines suitable for studying the structure of sunspots.