• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.45-58
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• 2013

In structural reliability analysis, the response surface method is a powerful method to evaluate the probability of failure. However, the location of experimental points used to form a response surface function must be selected in a judicious way. It is necessary for the highly nonlinear limit state functions to consider the design point and the nonlinear trend of the limit state, because both of them influence the probability of failure. In this paper, in order to approximate the actual limit state more accurately, experimental points are selected close to the design point and the actual limit state, and consider the nonlinear trend of the limit state. Linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials without mixed terms are utilized to approximate the actual limit state. The direct Monte Carlo simulation on the approximated limit state is carried out to determine the probability of failure. Four examples are given to demonstrate the efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method for both numerical and implicit limit states.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.78 no.2
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• pp.209-218
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• 2021

For engineering, there are two major challenges in reliability analysis. First, to ensure the accuracy of simulation results, mechanical products are usually defined implicitly by complex numerical models that require time-consuming. Second, the mechanical products are fortunately designed with a large safety margin, which leads to a low failure probability. This paper proposes an efficient and high-precision adaptive active learning algorithm based on the Kriging surrogate model to deal with the problems with low failure probability and time-consuming numerical models. In order to solve the problem with multiple failure regions, the adaptive kernel-density estimation is introduced and improved. Meanwhile, a new criterion for selecting points based on the current Kriging model is proposed to improve the computational efficiency. The criterion for choosing the best sampling points considers not only the probability of misjudging the sign of the response value at a point by the Kriging model but also the distribution information at that point. In order to prevent the distance between the selected training points from too close, the correlation between training points is limited to avoid information redundancy and improve the computation efficiency of the algorithm. Finally, the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are verified compared with other algorithms through two academic examples and one engineering application.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.85 no.3
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• pp.381-391
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• 2023

The seismic performance of the tall building equipped with a tuned mass damper (TMD) considering soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects is well studied in the literature. However, these studies are performed on the nominal model of the seismic-excited structural system with SSI. Hence, the outcomes of the studies may not valid for the actual structural system. To address the study gap, the reliability theory as a useful and powerful method is utilized in the paper. The present study aims to carry out reliability analyses on tall buildings equipped with TMD under near-field pulse-like (NFPL) ground motions considering SSI effects using a subset simulation (SS) method. In the presence of uncertainties of the structural model, TMD device, foundation, soil, and near-field pulse-like ground motions, the numerical studies are performed on a benchmark 40-story building and the failure probabilities of the structures with and without TMD are evaluated. Three types of soils (dense, medium, and soft soils), different earthquake magnitudes (M_w = 7,0. 7,25. 7,5 ), different nearest fault distances (r = 5. 10 and 15 km), and three seismic performance levels of immediate occupancy (IO), life safety (LS), and collapse prevention (CP) are considered in this study. The results show that tall buildings built near faults and on soft soils are more affected by uncertainties of the structural and ground motion models. Hence, ignoring these uncertainties may result in an inaccurate estimation of the maximum seismic responses. Also, it is found the TMD is not able to reduce the failure probabilities of the structure in the IO seismic performance level, especially for high earthquake magnitudes and structures built near the fault. However, TMD is significantly effective in the reduction of failure probability for the LS and CP performance levels. For weak earthquakes and long fault distances, the failure probabilities of both structures with and without TMD are near zero, and the efficiency of the TMD in the reduction of failure probabilities is reduced by increasing earthquake magnitudes and the reduction of fault distance. As soil softness increases, the failure probability of structures both with and without TMD often increases, especially for severe near-fault earthquake motion.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.177-188
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• 2024

The fatigue-induced sequential failure of a structure having structural redundancy requires system-level analysis to account for stress redistribution. System reliability-based design optimization (SRBDO) for preventing fatigue-initiated structural failure is numerically costly owing to the inclusion of probabilistic constraints. This study incorporates the Branch-and-Bound method employing system reliability Bounds (termed the B³ method), a failure-path structural system reliability analysis approach, with a metaheuristic optimization algorithm, namely grey wolf optimization (GWO), to obtain the optimal design of structures under fatigue-induced system failure. To further improve the efficiency of this new optimization framework, an additional bounding rule is proposed in the context of SRBDO against fatigue using the B³ method. To demonstrate the proposed method, it is applied to complex problems, a multilayer Daniels system and a three-dimensional tripod jacket structure. The system failure probability of the optimal design is confirmed to be below the target threshold and verified using Monte Carlo simulation. At earlier stages of the optimization, a smaller number of limit-state function evaluation is required, which increases the efficiency. In addition, the proposed method can allocate limited materials throughout the structure optimally so that the optimally-designed structure has a relatively large number of failure paths with similar failure probability.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.10-17
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• 2020

The structural reliability assessment can be used to improve the reliability in the asset integrity management of the pipeline by using a geometric variation, mechanical characteristics, load change and operating condition as evaluation factors. When evaluating structural reliability, the failure probability of the natural gas pipe is evaluated by the relationship of the resistance of the pipe material to external loads. The failure probability of the natural gas pipe due to the combined stresses such as the internal pressure, thermal stress and bending stress was evaluated by using COMREL program. When evaluating the failure probability of the natural gas pipe, a buried depth of 1.5 to 30 m, a wheel load of 2.5 to 20 ton, a temperature difference of 45℃, an operating pressure of 6.86MPa, and a soil density of 1.8 kN/㎥ were used. The failure probabilities of the natural gas pipe were evaluated by the Von-Mises stress criterion as the maximum allowable stress criterion under the combined stresses.

• Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.57-69
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• 2001

We have carried out a nondestructive close examination for the purpose of the structural safety diagnosis of the Three-Story Pagoda(Seokga Pagoda) in Bulkuk temple in the city of Kyungju, Kyungbuk, Korea. Ultrasonic wave velocities were measured at 456 points of the pagoda comprising 44 blocks to estimate the mechanical properties of rock blocks constituting the pagoda. The measured velocities have the range of 1217 to 4403 m/sec with the average of 3227 m/sec. The empirical relationship between the ultrasonic velocity and the uniaxial compressive strength yielded the estimation of strength of each block, ranging from 134 to 844 kg/cm^2 and averaging 463 kg/cm^2. With an assumption that the strength of each block is described as a random variables having a normal distribution, we calculated the probability of failure of rock blocks of the pagoda. Our investigation revealed that the probability of the structural failure due to the weight of higher blocks is very low. However, the probability of partial failure around contact area is substantial, which is consistent with the appearance that edges and the corners of some blocks were broken off. The platform under the body of the pagoda appeared to be structurally weak as the probability of tensile failure of the lower platform is up to 18%, and diagonal fractures are shown where the probability of failure is high.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.257-265
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• 2011

Plant-specific analyses of 5 types of domestic reactors in Korea are performed to assure the structural integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during transients which are expected to initiate pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events. The failure probability of the RPV due to PTS is obtained by performing probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. The through-wall cracking frequency is calculated and compared to the acceptance criterion. Considering the fluence at the end of life expected by surveillance test, the sufficient safety margin is expected for the structural integrity of all reactor pressure vessels except for the oldest one during the pressurized thermal shock events. If the flaw with aspect ratio of 1/12 is considered to eliminate the conservatism, the acceptance criteria is not exceeded for all plants until the fluence level of $8{\times}10^{19}\;n/cm^2$, generating sufficient margin beyond the design life.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.167-183
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• 2013

Methods for estimating structural reliability using probability ideas are well established. When the residual ultimate strength of a buried pipeline is exceeded the limit, breakage becomes imminent and the overall reliability of the pipe distribution network is reduced. This paper is concerned with estimating structural failure of underground flexible pipes due to corrosion induced excessive deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress subject to externally applied loading. With changes of pipe wall thickness due to corrosion, the moment of inertia and the cross-sectional area of pipe wall are directly changed with time. Consequently, the chance of survival or the reliability of the pipe material is decreased over time. One numerical example has been presented for a buried steel pipe to predict the probability of failure using Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation. Then the parametric study and sensitivity analysis have been conducted on the reliability of pipeline with different influencing factors, e.g. pipe thickness, diameter, backfill height etc.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.425-431
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• 2001

In order to take account of the statistical properties of probability variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach using the safety factor based on past experience usually estimated the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, material characters and the dimensions of the members. But the errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. Structural safety could not precisely be appraised by the traditional structural design concept. Recently, new approach based on the probability concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety using the reliability concept. In this study, safety of structures will estimated by the reliability analysis with commercial structural software that has the tools of nonlinear elastic-plastic 3-D analysis. Experimental test result is compared to results from this research and Coan/sup 1)/ In this paper, AFOSM(Advanced First-Order Second Moment method) is applied with von Mises, Tresca and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterions. The reliability index β and probability of failure P/sub f/ can be obtained by following this practical procedure as judgement a safety of structures and necessity of reinforcing.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1990.10a
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• pp.22-27
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• 1990

Since an eigenvalue problem in structural analysis has been recognized as an important process for the assessment of structural strength, it is usually to be carried out the eigenvalue analysis or buckling analysis of structures when the compression behabiour of the member is dorminant. In general, various variables involved in the eigenvalue problem have also shown their variability. So it is natural to apply the probabilistic analysis into such problem. Since the limit state equation for the eigenvalue analysis or buckling reliability analysis is expressed implicitly in terms of random variables involved, the probabilistic finite element method is combined with the conventional reliability method such as MVFOSM and AFOSM for the determination of probability of failure due to buckling. The accuracy of the results obtained by this method is compared with results from the Monte Carlo simulations. Importance sampling method is specially chosen for overcomming the difficulty in a large simulation number needed for appropriate accurate result. From the results of the case study, it is found that the method developed here has shown good performance for the calculation of probability of buckling failure and could be used for checking the safety of the calculation of probability of buckling failure and could be used for checking the safely of frame structure which might be collapsed by either yielding or buckling.