• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.99-110
• /
• 2021

This study aims to examine empirically the industry and economic fundamental factors that affect the stock prices of the leading palm oil company in Indonesia. The dynamics of stock price are analyzed using the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model both for symmetric and asymmetric effects. The data used in this study are monthly data for the period from 2008:01 to 2020:03. In the long run, the company stock price moves in line with the competitor company stock price at the current time. The palm oil price has a positive effect on the stock price. Meanwhile, inflation negatively affects the stock price in the short run. The estimated equilibrium correction coefficient indicates a reasonably quick correction of the distortion of the stock price equilibrium in monthly dynamics. However, fundamental factors have asymmetric effects, especially the response of stock price when these factors decrease rather than increase in the short run. Stock prices that are responsive to declines in fundamental performance should be of particular concern to both investors and management in their strategic decision making. The results of this study will contribute to the enrichment of literature related to stock prices from the viewpoint of economic analysis on firm-level data.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.11 no.10
• /
• pp.63-72
• /
• 2013

Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.19 no.1
• /
• pp.27-35
• /
• 2021

Purpose: This study is to investigate the effect of managerial ownership level in distribution and service companies on the stock price crash. The managerial ownership level affects the firm's information disclosure policy. If managers conceal or withholds business-related unfavorable factors over a long period, the firm's stock price is likely to plummet. In a similar vein, management's equity affects information opacity, and information asymmetry affects stock price collapse. Research design, data, and methodology: A regression analysis is conducted using the data on companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) between 2012-2017 to examine the effect of the managerial ownership level on stock price crash risks. Results: Logistic and regression results indicate that the stock price crash risk was reduced as managerial ownership levels are increased. The managerial ownership level has a significant negative coefficient on stock price crash risk, negative conditional return skewness of firm-specific weekly return distribution, and asymmetric volatility between positive and negative price-to-earnings ratios. Conclusions: As the ownership and management align, the likeliness of withholding business-related information is reduced. This study's results imply that the stock price crash risk reduces as the managerial ownership level increases because shareholder and manager interests coincide, thereby reducing information asymmetry.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.833-843
• /
• 2021

This research examines the impact of audit quality on the extent to which firm-specific information is integrated with a firm's share price - which is determined inversely using stock price synchronicity. The study sample consists of non-financial companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange i.e., the Jordanian Stock Market, from 2014-2018. After examining 810 firm-year observations from Jordanian industrial companies listed on the ASE, during the study period, we find that the companies using one of the BIG4 audit firms for auditing have less synchronous and more informative stock prices, suggesting high-quality audit improved governance and reduce information asymmetry between firms' insiders and investors which enhances the capitalization of firm's specific information into the stock price, thus less synchronous and more informative stock return. The findings remain consistent over 2 separate measurements of stock price synchronicity (Market and Industry model and Market Model) and show robustness for fixed effect tests. Our multivariate regression results are also robust after controlling for a number of features at the firm level with potential associations with stock price synchronicity. These include the firm size, leverage, return on assets (ROA), and market to book value (MBV).

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.19-28
• /
• 2020

Purpose: This research aims to investigate the impact of corporate integrity on stock price crash risk. Research design, data, and methodology: Taking 1419 firms listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China as a sample, this paper empirically analyzed the relationship between corporate integrity and stock price crash risk. The main integrity data was hand-collected from Shenzhen Stock Exchange Website. Other financial data was collected from CSMAR Database. Results: Findings show that corporate integrity can significantly decrease stock price crash risk. After changing the selection of samples, model estimation methods and the proxy variable of stock price crash risk, the conclusion is still valid. Further research shows that the relationship between corporate integrity and stock price crash risk is only found in firms with weak internal control and firms in poor legal system areas. Conclusions: Results of the study suggest that corporate integrity has a significant influence on behaviors of managers. Business ethics reduces the likelihood of managers to overstate financial performance and hide bad news, which leads to the low likelihood of future stock price crashes. Meanwhile, corporate integrity can supplement internal control and legal system in decreasing stock price crash risks.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.165-173
• /
• 2021

This study examined the effect of Debt Equity Ratio (DER), Net Profit Margin (NPM), and Size on stock prices with company performance as measured by Return on Assets (ROA) as a mediating variable. The sample used is 136 manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the 2014-2018 period. This research was tested using a Warp PLS statistical test tool to prove the proposed hypothesis. The results showed that DER has a significant negative effect on ROA and a significant positive effect on Stock Price. NPM has a significant positive effect on ROA as well as a significant positive effect on Stock Price. While Size has a significant positive effect on ROA but has no effect on Stock Price. ROA has a significant positive effect on Stock Price. ROA does not act as a mediating variable in the relationship between Size and Stock Price; however, ROA acts as a mediating variable in the DER and Stock Price relationship, as well as, in the relationship between NPM and Stock Price. The implications of the results of this study can be used by investors in making investment decisions, paying attention to the company's financial aspects, namely DER, NPM, Size, and ROA.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.22 no.9
• /
• pp.49-63
• /
• 2024

Purpose: This study examines how psychological heuristics influence stock price dynamics in Korea's distribution industry after significant price shocks. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: The study analyzes daily stock price movements exceeding 10% for Korean distribution companies from 1993 to 2022. It establishes anchoring heuristic reference points, including the 52-week high and low, and segments the sample based on company size and volatility. Results: We analyzed a sample previously studied by Lee et al. (2023). Our findings indicate that when a stock experiences a positive (negative) price shock near its 52-week high (or lowest price), investors in large (small) companies exhibit an optimism (pessimism) bias. This leads to overreactions and subsequent stock price reversals after the event date. Conversely, when a stock encounters a negative (positive) price shock near its 52-week high (or lowest price), investorstend to underreact due to anchoring heuristics. Thisresultsin a drift effect on the stock price after the event day. Notably, investor behavior around 52-week highs or lows directly impacts their heuristic behavior related to those price points. Conclusions: This paper uniquely examines behavioral biases among distribution-related stock investors in Korea, shedding light on stock price reversal and drift effects.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.21 no.9
• /
• pp.103-114
• /
• 2023

Purpose: This paper aims to assess psychological heuristics' effectiveness on cumulative returns after significant stock price changes. Specifically, it compares availability and anchoring heuristics' empirical validity due to conflicting stock return predictions. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: This paper analyzes stock price changes of Korean distribution industry stocks in the KOSPI market from January 2004 to July 2022, where daily fluctuations exceed 10%. It evaluates availability heuristics using daily KOSPI index changes and tests anchoring heuristics using 52-week high and low stock prices as reference points. Results: As a result of the empirical analysis, stock price reversals did not consistently appear alongside changes in the daily KOSPI index. By contrast, stock price drifts consistently appeared around the 52-week highest stock price and 52-week lowest stock price. The result of the multiple regression analysis which controlled for both company-specific and event-specific variables supported the anchoring heuristics. Conclusions: For stocks related to the Korean distribution industry in the KOSPI market, the anchoring heuristics theory provides a consistent explanation for stock returns after large-scale stock price fluctuations that initially appear to be random movements.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.99-111
• /
• 2001

The prediction of stock price index is a very difficult problem because of the complexity of stock market data. It has been studied by a number of researchers since they strongly affect other economic and financial parameters. The movement of stock price index has a series of change points due to the strategies of institutional investors. This study presents a two-stage forecasting model of stock price index using change-point detection and artificial neural networks. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in stock price index forecasting. First, the proposed model tries to detect successive change points in stock price index. Then, the model forecasts the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network(BPN). Finally, the model forecasts the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for stock price index forecasting using change-point detection.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
• /
• v.11 no.12
• /
• pp.39-45
• /
• 2020

Purpose: The stock price delay phenomenon refers to a phenomenon in which stock prices do not immediately reflect corporate information and the reflection is delayed. A prior study reported that the stock price delay phenomenon appears strongly when the quality of corporate information is low (Callen, Khan, & Lu, 2013). The purpose of the internal accounting control system is to improve the reliability of accounting information. Specifically, the more professionals such as certified public accountants are placed in the internal accounting control system, the more information is prevented from being distorted, so the occurrence of stock price delay will decrease. Research design, data and methodology: In this study, companies listed on the securities market from 2012 to 2016 were selected as a sample to analyze whether the stock price delay phenomenon is alleviated as accounting experts are assigned to the internal accounting control system. The internal control personnel data were collected in the "Internal Accounting Control System Operation Report" attached to the business report of each company of the Financial Supervisory Service's Electronic Disclosure System(DART). The measurement method of the stock price delay phenomenon was referred to the study of Hou and Moskowitz (2005). The final sample used in the study is 2,641 firm-years. Results: It was found that companies with certified accountants in the internal accounting control system alleviate the stock price delay phenomenon. This result can be interpreted as increasing the speed at which corporate information is reflected in the stock price by improving the reliability of information disclosed in the market by the placement of experts in the system. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that accounting professionals assigned to the internal accounting control system are playing a positive role in providing high-quality information to the market. In this study, focusing on the fact that the speed at which corporate information is reflected in the stock price is very important for the stakeholders in the capital market, we find that having a certified public accountant in the internal accounting control system alleviates the stock price delay phenomenon.