• Title/Summary/Keyword: stock market index

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A Study on the Asymmetric Volatility in the Korean Bond Market (채권시장 변동성의 비대칭적 반응에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Seok
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.93-108
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    • 2009
  • This study examines the asymmetric volatility in the Korean bond market and stock market by using the KTB Prime Index and KOSPI. Because accurate estimation and forecasting of volatility is essential before investing assets, it is important to understand the asymmetric response of volatility in bond market. Therefore I investigate the existence of asymmetric volatility in Korean bond market unlike the previous studies which mainly focused on stock returns. The main results of the empirical analysis with GARCH and GJR-GARCH model are as follow. At first, it exists the asymmetric volatility on KOSPI returns like the previous studies. Also, I find that the GJR-GARCH is more suitable one than GARCH model for forecasting volatility. Second, it does not exist the asymmetric volatility on KTB Prime Index returns. This result is showed by that using the GARCH model for forecasting volatility in bond market is sufficient.

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International Transmission of Information Across National Stock Markets: Evidence from the Stock Index Futures Markets

  • Kim, Min-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.73-94
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    • 1998
  • This paper contributes to the ongoing controversy over price and volatility spillovers across countries by providing new evidence with the futures data of the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index futures contacts from January 3, 1990 to April 16, 1996. Based on the two-stage symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models we document that both the U.S. and the Japanese daytime returns significantly influence the subsequent overnight returns of the other market. We find no signs of volatility spillovers between two international markets with the symmetric model. However, with the asymmetric models, we find that the magnitude of foreign negative shocks are different from the positive ones. The findings generally suggest that the two markets are more sensitive to the bad news originating in the other market. This nature of transmission between two markets would have important implications to the arbitragers who are trying to exploit the short-term dynamics of price and volatility movements across two security markets.

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Expiration Day Effects in Korean Stock Market: Wag the Dog? (한국 주식시장에서의 만기일효과: Wag the Dog?)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Lim, Kyung-Mook
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.137-170
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    • 2003
  • Despite the great success of the derivatives market, several concerns were expressed regarding the additional volatilitystemming from program trading during the expiration of derivatives. This paper examines the impact of the expiration of the KOSPI 200 index derivatives on cash market of Korea Stock Exchange(KSE). The KOSPI 200 index derivatives market has a unique settlement price determination process. The settlement price for the expiration of derivatives is determined by call auction during the last 10 minutes after the trades for matured derivatives are finalized. We analyze typical expiration day effects such as price, volatility, and volume effects. With high frequency data, we find that there are strong expiration day effects in the KSE and try to interpret the results with the unique settlement procedures of the KOSPI 200 cash and derivatives markets.

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Research model on stock price prediction system through real-time Macroeconomics index and stock news mining analysis (실시간 거시지표 예측과 증시뉴스 마이닝을 통한 주가 예측시스템 모델연구)

  • Hong, Sunghyuck
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.7
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 2021
  • As the global economy stagnated due to the Corona 19 virus from Wuhan, China, most countries, including the US Federal Reserve System, introduced policies to boost the economy by increasing the amount of money. Most of the stock investors tend to invest only by listening to the recommendations of famous YouTubers or acquaintances without analyzing the financial statements of the company, so there is a high possibility of the loss of stock investments. Therefore, in this research, I have used artificial intelligence deep learning techniques developed under the existing automatic trading conditions to analyze and predict macro-indicators that affect stock prices, giving weights on individual stock price predictions through correlations that affect stock prices. In addition, since stock prices react sensitively to real-time stock market news, a more accurate stock price prediction is made by reflecting the weight to the stock price predicted by artificial intelligence through stock market news text mining, providing stock investors with the basis for deciding to make a proper stock investment.

The Effect of Business Strategy on Stock Price Crash Risk

  • RYU, Haeyoung
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study attempted to examine the risk of stock price plunge according to the firm's management strategy. Prospector firms value innovation and have high uncertainties due to rapid growth. There is a possibility of lowering the quality of financial reporting in order to meet market expectations while withstanding the uncertainty of the results. In addition, managers of prospector firms enter into compensation contracts based on stock prices, thus creating an incentive to withhold negative information disclosure to the market. Prospector firms' information opacity and delays in disclosure of negative information are likely to cause a sharp decline in share prices in the future. Research design, data and methodology: This study performed logistic analysis of KOSPI listed firms from 2014 to 2017. The independent variable is the strategic index, and is calculated by considering the six characteristics (R&D investment, efficiency, growth potential, marketing, organizational stability, capital intensity) of the firm. The higher the total score, the more it is a firm that takes a prospector strategy, and the lower the total score, the more it is a firm that pursues a defender strategy. In the case of the dependent variable, a value of 1 was assigned when there was a week that experienced a sharp decline in stock prices, and 0 when it was not. Results: It was found that the more firms adopting the prospector strategy, the higher the risk of a sharp decline in the stock price. This is interpreted as the reason that firms pursuing a prospector strategy do not disclose negative information by being conscious of market investors while carrying out venture projects. In other words, compensation contracts based on uncertainty in the outcome of prospector firms and stock prices increase the opacity of information and are likely to cause a sharp decline in share prices. Conclusions: This study's analysis of the impact of management strategy on the stock price plunge suggests that investors need to consider the strategy that firms take in allocating resources. Firms need to be cautious in examining the impact of a particular strategy on the capital markets and implementing that strategy.

Net Buying Ratios by Trader Types and Volatility in Korea's Financial Markets (투자자별 순매수율과 변동성: 한국 금융시장의 사례)

  • Yoo, Shiyong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.189-195
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    • 2014
  • In this research, we investigate the relationship between volatility and the trading volumes of trader types in the KOSPI 200 index stock market, futures market, and options market. Three types of investors are considered: individual, institutional, and foreign investors. The empirical results show that the volatility of the stock market and futures market are affected by the transaction information from another market. This means that there exists the cross-market effect of trading volume to explain volatility. It turns out that the option market volatility is not explained by any trading volume of trader types. This is because the option market volatility, VKOSPI, is the volatility index that reflects traders' expectation on one month ahead underlying volatility. Third, individual investors tend to increase volatilities, whereas institutions and foreign investors tend to stabilize volatilities. These results can be used in the areas of investment strategies, risk management, and financial market stability.

LSTM-based Prediction Performance of COVID-19 Fear Index on Stock Prices: Untact Stocks versus Contact Stocks (LSTM 기반 COVID-19 공포지수의 주가 예측 성과: 언택트 주식과 콘택트 주식)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2022
  • As the non-face-to-face economic situation developed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, untact stock groups appeared in the stock market. This study proposed the Korea COVID-19 fear index following the spread of infectious diseases in the COVID-19 pandemic situation and analyzed the influence on the untact stock and contact stock returns. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of the Granger causality analysis using the Korea COVID-19 fear index, significant causality was found in the return of contact stocks such as Korean Air, Hana Tour, CJ CGV, and Paradise. Second, as a result of stock price prediction based on the LSTM model, Kakao, Korean Air, and Naver's prediction performance was high. Third, the investment performances of the Alexander filter entry rule using the predicted stock price were high in Naver futures and Kakao futures. This study can find a difference from previous studies in that it analyzed the influence of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on untact and contact stocks in the COVID-19 situation where the non-face-to-face economy is in full swing.

A Study on Determinants of Asset Price : Focused on USA (자산가격의 결정요인에 대한 실증분석 : 미국사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Hyoung-Kyoo;Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Does Investor Sentiment Influence Stock Price Crash Risk? Evidence from Saudi Arabia

  • ALNAFEA, Maryam;CHEBBI, Kaouther
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2022
  • This paper examines the relationship between investor sentiment and the risk of a stock price crash at the firm level. Our dataset includes 131 firms listed on the Saudi stock exchange (Tadawul) from 2011 to 2019, as well as 953 firm-year observations. To evaluate crash risk, we employ two distinct proxies and propose an index for measuring firm-level sentiment which we use for the first time in our study. The average turnover rate, price-earnings ratio, and overnight return are the three sentiment proxies we utilize in our index. Our findings show that high levels of investor emotion increase managers' proclivity to withhold unfavorable news from investors, which aggravates the risk of a stock price crash. We undertake cross-sectional regressions by sector to ensure the robustness of our findings, and our findings are confirmed. After accounting for any endogeneity issues with the GMM technique, the results remain the same. Furthermore, we analyze the liquidity effect by dividing our sample into subsamples with better and worse liquidity and find that firms with worse liquidity have a considerably greater positive impact of investor mood. Overall, our findings help investors and regulators recognize the significance of this downside risk and how to manage it in the stock market.