• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.21-31
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• 2007

This study is aimed at the development of a runoff forecasting model by using the Fuzzy inference system and Neural Network model to solve the uncertainties occurring in the process of rainfall-runoff modeling and improve the modeling accuracy of the stream runoff forecasting. The Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) model were used in this study. The NF model, recently received a great deal of attention, improve the existing Neural Networks by the aid of the Fuzzy theory applied to each node. The study area is the downstreams of Naeseung-chun. Therefore, time-dependent data was obtained from the Wolpo water level gauging station. 11 and 2 out of total 13 flood events were selected for the training and testing set of model respectively. The schematic diagram method and the statistical analysis are conducted to evaluate the feasibility of rainfall-runoff modeling. The model accuracy was rapidly decreased as the forecasting time became longer. The NF model can give accurate runoff forecasts up to 4 hours ahead in standard above the Determination coefficient $(R^2)$ 0.7. In the comparison of the runoff forecasting using the NF and TANK models, characteristics of peak runoff in the TANK model was higher than ones in the NF models, but peak values of hydrograph in the NF models were similar.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.31-38
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• 2007

We have investigated the evolutionary status of 85 Peg within the framework of standard evolutionary theory. 85 Peg has been known to be a visual and spectroscopic binary system in the solar neighborhood. In spite of the accurate information of the total mass (${\sim}1.5M_{\odot}$) and the distance (${\sim}12pc$) from the HIPPARCOS parallax, it has been undetermined an individual mass, therefore the evolved status of the system. Moreover, the coupled uncertainties of chemical composition and age, make matters worse in predicting an evolutionary status of the system. Nevertheless, we computed the various possible models for 85 Peg, and then calibrated stellar parameters by adjusting to the recent observational data. Our modelling computation has included recently updated input physics and stellar theory such as opacity, equation of state, and chemical diffusion. Through a statistical assessment, we have derived a confident parameter set as the best solution which minimized $X^{2}$ within the observational error domain. Most of all, we found that 85 Peg is not a binary system but a triple system with an unseen companion 85 Peg $B_{b}\;{\sim}0.16M_{\odot}$. The aim of the present paper is (1) to provide a complete modelling of the stellar system based on the evolutionary theory, and (2) to constrain the physical dimensions such as mass, metallicity and age.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.537-553
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• 2016

This paper addresses the safety of two-row tank design by performing the extensive sloshing model tests. Owing to the uncertainties entangled with the scale law transforming the measured impact pressure up to the full scale one, so called comparative approach was taken to derive the design sloshing load. The target design vessel was chosen as 230 K LNG-FPSO with tow-row tank arrangement and the reference vessel as 138 K conventional LNG carrier, which has past track record without any significant failure due to sloshing loads. Starting with the site-specific metocean data, ship motion analysis was carried out with 3D diffraction-radiation program, then the obtained ship motion data was used as 6DOF tank excitation for subsequent sloshing model test and analysis. The statistical analysis was carried out with obtained peak data and the long-term sloshing load was determined out of it. It was concluded that the normalized sloshing impact pressure on 230 K LNG-FPSO with two-row tank arrangement is higher than that of convectional LNG carrier, hence requires the use of reinforced cargo containment system for the sake of failure-free operation without filling limitation.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.271-281
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• 2009

In order to reduce the uncertainties and improve the air flow field, objective analysis using observational data is chosen as a method that enhances the reality of meteorology. To improve the meteorological components, the radius influence and nudging coefficient of the objective analysis should perform a adequate value on complex area for the objective analysis technique which related to data reliability and error suppression. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to clarify the impacts of the radius influence and nudging coefficient of the objective analysis on meteorological environments. By analyzing practical urban ground conditions, we revealed that there were large differences in the meteorological differences in each case. In order to understand the quantitative impact of each run, the Statistical analysis by estimated by MM5 revealed the differences by the synoptic conditions. The strengthening of the synoptic wind condition tends to be well estimated when using quite a wide radius influence and a small nudging coefficient. On the other hand, the weakening of the synoptic wind is opposite.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.371-384
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• 2005

Self-referencing method in revised-OTFTOOL is a new method in On-The-Fly(OTF) observation mode. It uses the source free regions of the observed frame as references instead of the OFFs references. We already analyzed and discussed its proprieties and advantages in the previous paper. In this paper, we make a statistical study about the self-referencing method by applying it to OTF mapping data of 27 Virgo spiral galaxies. We found that the self-referencing method solves the crooked baseline problem for every datacube. It straightens the baseline, and conserves the emissions. Compared with other data processing, the median filtering task 'mwflt' in AIPS, to use self-referencing method is more effective and safe not only to straighten the baseline but also to conserve the emission. For the strong CO galaxies, the data obtained by self-referencing method shows scarcely any difference from those reduced by conventional OFFs references and AIPS median filtering in the range of uncertainties. Undetected CO emissions in datacubes of conventional OFFs references are also not detected in those of self-referencing method. The self-referencing method is expected to save the observing time and simplify data reduction processes. Besides this, using self-referencing method will offer emission-free references more safely.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.1254-1261
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• 2003

In this paper we present a simple and efficient robust optimal design formulation and its application to a resonant-type micro probe. The basic idea is to use the Gradient Index (GI) to improve robustness of the objective and constraint functions. In the robust optimal design procedure, a deterministic optimization for performance of MEMS structures is followed by design sensitivity analysis with respect to uncertainties such as fabrication errors and change of operating conditions. During the process of deterministic optimization and sensitivity analysis, dominant performance and uncertain variables are identified to define GI. The GI is incorporated as a term of objective and constraint functions in the robust optimal design formulation to make both performance and robustness improved. While most previous approaches for robust optimal design require statistical information on design variations, the proposed GI based method needs no such information and therefore is cost-efficient and easily applicable to early design stages. For the micro probe example, robust optimums are obtained to satisfy the targets for the measurement sensitivity and they are compared in terms of robustness and production yield with the deterministic optimums through the Monte Carlo simulation.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.221-230
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• 2017

One of the important phases of probabilistic performance-based methodology is establishing appropriate probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs). These demand models relate ground motion intensity measures (IMs) to demand measures (DMs). The objective of this paper is selection of the optimal IMs in probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) of the RC high-rise buildings. In selection process features such as: efficiency, practically, proficiency and sufficiency are considered. RC high-rise buildings with core wall structural system are selected as a case study building class with the three characteristic heights: 20-storey, 30-storey and 40-storey. In order to determine the most optimal IMs, 720 nonlinear time-history analyses are conducted for 60 ground motion records with a wide range of magnitudes and distances to source, and for various soil types, thus taking into account uncertainties during ground motion selection. The non-linear 3D models of the case study buildings are constructed. A detailed regression analysis and statistical processing of results are performed and appropriate PSDMs for the RC high-rise building are derived. Analyzing a large number of results it are adopted conclusions on the optimality of individual ground motion IMs for the RC high-rise building.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.863-871
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• 2009

For the assessment of climate change impacts on river flow condition, CGCM 3.1 T63 is selected as future climate information. The projections come from CGCM used to simulate the GHG emission scenario known as A2. Air temperature and precipitation information from the GCM simulations are converted to regional scale data using the statistical downscaling method known as MSPG. Downscaled climate data from GCM are then used as the input data for the modified TANK model to generate regional runoff estimates for 44 river locations in Nakdong river basin. Climate change is expected to reduce the reliability of water supplies in the period of 2021~2030. In the period of 2051~2060, stream flow is expected to be reduced in spring season and increased in summer season. However, it should be noted that there are a lot of uncertainties in such multiple-step analysis used to convert climate information from GCM-based future climate projections into hydrologic information.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.153-163
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• 2002

There seems to be a little trouble in delivering an effective teaching of statistics at the school of Business. Students attitude toward the understanding of mathematics appears to be one of the hindrances encountered to the wide spread use of statistics. Nevertheless, the usefulness of statistics is notably appreciated these days although students may not be aware of it. It is true that many processes of decision-making are based on various future uncertainties, however, decisions must be made at the present. In this synopsis, we would like to solve simple business problems, thereby, suggest more constructive ways to match the statistics with the interest of management. We, in the mean time, will talk about the understanding of business, method of teaching, and Monte Carlo education.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.17 no.2 s.119
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• pp.121-129
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• 2007

There has been much effort to find suitable methods for structural analysis in the mid-frequency region where traditional low frequency methods have increasing uncertainties whilst statistical energy analysis is not strictly applicable. Systems consisting of relatively stiff beams coupled to flexible plates have a particularly broad mid-frequency region where the beams support only a few modes whilst the plate has a high modal density and modal overlap. A system of two parallel beams coupled to a plate is investigated based on the wave method, which is an approximate method. Muller's method is utilised for obtaining complex roots of a dispersion wave equation, which does not converge in the conventional wave method based on a simple iteration. The wave model is extended from a single-beam-plate system, to a plate with two identical beams which is modelled using a symmetric-antisymmetric technique. The important hypothesis that the coupled beam wavenumber is sufficiently smaller than the plate free wavenumber is experimentally verified. Finally, experimental results such as powers and energy ratios show the validity of the analytical wave models.