• Title/Summary/Keyword: statistical prediction

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Prediction of Osteoporosis using Compositive Analysis of Trabecular Patterns on Proximal Femur (대퇴 근위부의 골소주 패턴에 대한 복합적인 분석을 통한 골다공증 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Ju-Hwan;Park, Sung-Yun;Jeong, Jae-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Min
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.19B no.2
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to determine the evaluation parameters' osteoporosis predictability in accordance with measuring regions by analyzing the correlations between bone mineral density and trabecular patterns derived from different measuring regions. Experimental subjects were a total of 40 female patients after menopause aged over 40 years, and were classified into 20 control and 20 osteoporotic groups according to the T-score. Bone mineral density was measured on femoral neck, trochanter and ward's triangle by DEXA(Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry). We designated ROI(Region of Interest) with $50{\times}50$ pixel size on each measuring regions, and extracted trabecular patterns by using existing image processing method. We also selected a total of eight evaluation parameters that are categorized into structural(mean gray level, area, perimeter, thickness and terminal distance), skeletonized parameters(number, length) and fractal dimension. As a result, it was observed that area, perimeter, thickness, terminal distance, number, length and fractal dimension reflected the bone mineral density with high statistical validity(p<0.003). We also confirmed that the evaluation parameters could predict the osteoporosis more efficiently.

Significance of Ultrasonography in Diagnosis of Medial Meniscus Tear (내측 반월상 연골 파열의 진단에서 초음파의 의의)

  • Kim, Jung-Man;Im, Dong-Sun;Kim, Tae-Hyung;Kim, Jong-Ick;Lee, Kyu-Jo
    • The Journal of Korean Orthopaedic Ultrasound Society
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: To evaluate the usefulness of ultrasonography in diagnosis of the medial meniscus tear as a screening tool before performing magnetic resonance imaging. Materials and Methods: From April 2009 to September 2010, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was taken in 147 knees out of 341 knees examined with ultrasonography (US) under the suspicion of medial meniscus tear. The sonographic findings were 16 without abnormality, 12 inhomogeneity, 4 cluster, 60 cleavage and 55 more than 5mm medial extrusion of medial meniscus. In Statistical analysis, sensitivity and specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were calculated. Results: The MRI showed abnormality in 104 knees. Sensitivity and specificity of ultrasonography for MRI was 94.2% and 23.3%, respectively. Positive predictive value was 74.8%, negative predictive value was 62.5%. The positive predictive value of ultrasonography were 58.3% in heterogeneity, 100% in showing cluster, 75% in visible cleft and 80% in medial extrusion. Conclusion: The US is a useful tool in prediction of medial meniscus tear before confirming it in high-cost MRI.

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Bayesian analysis of Korean income data using zero-inflated Tobit model (영과잉 토빗모형을 이용한 한국 소득분포 자료의 베이지안 분석)

  • Hwang, Jisu;Kim, Sei-Wan;Oh, Man-Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.917-929
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    • 2017
  • Korean income data obtained from Korea Labor Panel Survey shows excessive zeros, which may not be properly explained by the Tobit model. In this paper, we analyze the data using a zero-inflated Tobit model to incorporate excessive zeros. A zero-inflated Tobit model consists of two stages. In the first stage, individuals with 0 income are divided into two groups: genuine zero group and random zero group. Individuals in the genuine zero group did not participate labor market since they have no intention to do so. Individuals in the random zero group participated labor market but their incomes are very low and truncated at 0. In the second stage, the Tobit model is assumed to a subset of data combining random zeros and positive observations. Regression models are employed in both stages to obtain the effect of explanatory variables on the participation of labor market and the income amount. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are applied for the Bayesian analysis of the data. The proposed zero-inflated Tobit model outperforms the Tobit model in model fit and prediction of zero frequency. The analysis results show strong evidence that the probability of participating in the labor market increases with age, decreases with education, and women tend to have stronger intentions on participating in the labor market than men. There also exists moderate evidence that the probability of participating in the labor market decreases with socio-economic status and reserved wage. However, the amount of monthly wage increases with age and education, and it is larger for married than unmarried and for men than women.

Development of Bus Arrival Time Estimation Model by Unit of Route Group (노선그룹단위별 버스도착시간 추정모형 연구)

  • No, Chang-Gyun;Kim, Won-Gil;Son, Bong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2010
  • The convenient techniques for predicting the bus arrival time have used the data obtained from the buses belong to the same company only. Consequently, the conventional techniques have often failed to predict the bus arrival time at the downstream bus stops due to the lack of the data during congestion time period. The primary objective of this study is to overcome the weakness of the conventional techniques. The estimation model developed based on the data obtained from Bus Information System(BIS) and Bus management System(BMS). The proposed model predicts the bus arrival time at bus stops by using the data of all buses travelling same roadway section during the same time period. In the tests, the proposed model had a good accuracy of predicting the bus arrival time at the bus stops in terms of statistical measurements (e.g., root mean square error). Overall, the empirical results were very encouraging: the model maintains a prediction job during the morning and evening peak periods and delivers excellent results for the severely congested roadways that are of the most practical interest.

Unsteady RANS computations of turbulent flow in a high-amplitude meandering channel (고진폭 만곡수로에서 난류흐름의 비정상 RANS 수치모의)

  • Lee, Seungkyu;Paik, Joongcheol
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2017
  • Turbulent flow structure in the high amplitude meandering channel is complex due to secondary recirculation with helicoidal motions and shear layers formed by flow separation from the curved sidewall. In this work, the secondary flow and the superelevation of the water surface produced in the high-amplitude Kinoshita channel are reproduced by the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations using the VOF technique for resolving the variation of water surface elevation and three statistical turbulence models ($k-{\varepsilon}$, RNG $k-{\varepsilon}$, $k-{\omega}$ SST). The numerical results computed by a second-order accurate finite volume method are compared with an existing experimental measurement. Among applied turbulence models, $k-{\omega}$ SST model relatively well predicts overall distribution of the secondary recirculation in the Kinoshita channel, while all three models yield similar prediction of water superelevation transverse slope. The secondary recirculation driven by the radial acceleration in the upstream bend affects the flow structure in the downstream bend, which yields a pair of counter-rotating vortices at the bend apex. This complex flow pattern is reasonably well reproduced by the $k-{\omega}$ SST model. Both $k-{\varepsilon}$ based models fail to predict the clockwise-rotating vortex between a pair of counter-rotating vortices which was observed in the experiment. Regardless of applied turbulence models, the present computations using the VOF method appear to well reproduce the superelevation of water surface through the meandering channel.

Statistical Methods to Evaluate the Occurrence Probability of Exotic Fish in Japan (일본 서식 외래 담수어종의 서식확률 평가를 위한 통계기법 연구)

  • Han, Mi-Deok;Chung, Wook-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.195-202
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    • 2011
  • This study analyzed and modeled the relationships between the probabilities of two exotic species occurrence (i.e. largemouth bass and blue gill) and environmental factors such as climatic and geographical variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Generalized Liner Models and Classification Tree Analysis (CTA). The most moderate occurrence probability of largemouth bass was predicted using GAM with an area under the curve (ADC) of 0.88 and Kappa of 0.42, while those of blue gill was suggested by using CTA with an AUC of 0.92 and Kappa of 0.44. The most significant environmental variable in terms of changes in deviance for both species was the annual air temperature for the occurrence probability. Dams had stronger effect on the occurrence of largemouth bass than blue gill. Model development and prediction for the occurrence probability of fish species and richness are necessary to prevent further spread of exotic fishes such as largemouth bass and blue gill because they can threaten habitats of native river ecosystem through various mechanisms.

Reliability Evaluation for Prediction of Concrete Compressive Strength through Impact Resonance Method and Ultra Pulse Velocity Method (충격공진법과 초음파속도법을 통한 콘크리트 압축강도 예측의 신뢰성 평가)

  • Lee, Han-Kyul;Lee, Byung-Jae;Oh, Kwang-Chin;Kim, Yun-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2015
  • Non-destructive testing (NDT) methods are widely used in the construction industry to diagnose the defects/strength of the concrete structure. However, it has been reported that the results obtained from NDT are having low reliability. In order to resolve this issue, four kinds of NDT test (ultrasonic velocity measurements by P-wave and S-wave and the impact resonance methods by longitudinal vibration and deformation vibration) were carried out on 180 concrete cylinders made with two kinds of mix proportions. The reliability of the NDT results was analyzed and compared through the measurement of the actual compressive strength of the concrete cylinders. The statistical analysis of the results was revealed that the ultrasonic velocity method by S-wave is having lowest coefficient of variation and also most capable of stable observation. Analytical equations were established to estimate the compressive strength of the concrete from the obtained NDT results by relating the actual compressive strength. Moreover the equation established by the ultrasonic velocity method by S-wave had the highest coefficient of determination. Further studies on the stability of non-destructive testing depending on various mixing conditions will be necessary in the future.

Distribution Pattern of Pinus densiflora and Quercus Spp. Stand in Korea Using Spatial Statistics and GIS (공간통계와 GIS를 이용한 소나무림과 참나무류림의 분포패턴)

  • Lee, Chong-Soo;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Yoon, Jeong-Ho;Song, Chul-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.95 no.6
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    • pp.663-671
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    • 2006
  • This study was performed for exploring the spatial distribution pattern of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. in Korea. Firstly, the spatial distribution map of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. was prepared in grid of $100m{\times}100m$ at national level, using digital forest type map and actual vegetation map. And thematic maps for topography, climate, and soil were also prepared in the raster form of $100m{\times}100m$. Through GIS based spatial analysis of the digital distribution map of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. and thematic maps, the spatial characteristics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. distribution was explored in relation to the environmental factors such as topography, climate, and soil. And the occurrence frequency models of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. were derived. Pinus densiflora occurs more often than Quercus spp. at low elevation, low slope gradient, and high temperature areas. In addition, Pinus densiflora is mainly distributed at shallow and well-drained loamy soil from igneous rocks. In contrast, Quercus spp. is more common at shallow and well-drained loamy soil from metamorphic rocks. As a result, the prediction model for the spatial distribution of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. by topographical variables has proven successful with high statistical significance. The result of this study can contribute to rational management of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. stand in Korea, considering environmental factors such as topography, climate, and soil.

Predicting and Extending the Shelf Life of Red Cabbage Sprouts (적양배추싹의 Shelf Life 예측 및 Aqueous ClO2, Fumaric Acid, UV-C 병합처리)

  • Chun, Ho Hyun;Park, Seung Jong;Jung, Seung Hun;Song, Kyung Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.42 no.9
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    • pp.1518-1523
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    • 2013
  • To estimate the shelf life of red cabbage sprouts (stored at 4 and $10^{\circ}C$), the numbers of total aerobic bacteria were determined during storage. Parameters for the Gompertz model were determined and the shelf life was predicted using a modified Gompertz equation. The estimated shelf lives of red cabbage sprouts packed with polyolefin film and polyamide/polyamide/polyethylene (PA/PA/PE) film at $4^{\circ}C$ were 49.4 and 52.3 h, respectively, whereas those of red cabbage sprouts packed with polyolefin film and PA/PA/PE film at $10^{\circ}C$ were 19.7 and 22.6, respectively. The shelf life prediction equation was appropriate, based on the statistical analysis of the accuracy factor, bias factor, and mean square error. On the other hand, for red cabbage sprouts treated with aqueous $ClO_2$/fumaric acid and UV-C then packed with polyolefin film or PA/PA/PE film, the shelf life was predicted to be longer than 168 h. These results suggest that the combined treatment of aqueous $ClO_2$/fumaric acid and UV-C can be useful for improving microbial safety and extending the shelf life of red cabbage sprouts during storage.

Comparative molecular similarity indices analyses (CoMSIA) and hologram quantitative structure activity relationship (HQSAR) on the fungicial activity of 2-N-benzyl-5-phenoxy-3-isothiazolone derivatives against phytophthora blight fungus (고추역병균에 대한 2-N-benzyl-5-Phenoxy-3-isothiazolone 유도체의 살균활성에 관한 비교분자 유사성 지수분석(CoMSIA)과 홀로그램 구조-활성 관계(HQSAR))

  • Sung, Nack-Do;Kim, Ki-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.209-217
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    • 2002
  • Two different QSAR methods, the comparative molecular similarity indices analyses (CoMSIA) and hologram quantitative structure activity relationship (HQSAR) are studied for the fungicidal activities ($pI_{50}$) of 2-N-benzyl-5-phenoxy-3-isothiazolone derivatives against sensitive (SPC: 95CC7105) and resisitive (RPC: 95CC7303) phytophthora blight fungus (Phytaphthora capsici). According to the findings from these QSAR investigation, the cross-validation value, $q^2$ and Pearson correlation coefficient, $r^2$ in the two methods were CoMSIA: RPC; $q^2=0.675,\;r^2=0.942$, SPC; $q^2=0.350,\;r^2=0.876$ and HQSAR: RPC; $q^2=0.519,\;r^2=0.869$, SPC; $q^2=0.483,\;r^2=0.990$, respectively. Therefore, the two models of comparative statistical significance were obtained. From the CoMSIA contour maps, the important factors for selective fungicidal activity against RPC are to be expected that the lower hydrophobic and not bulkiness substituent as hydrogen bonding acceptor have to introduce to meta and para-position (C1-C6) on the phenoxy moiety. And the results of prediction suggest that HQSAR method showed higher fungicidal activity than CoMSIA method.